2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Caliga]

Hey, I've got a dog if it gets bad enough.

"THEY'RE EATING... DOGS!"

[garbon]

US election 2024 live updates: Trump casts ballot in Florida and says he feels 'very confident' as result remains on knife edge https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/nov/05/us-election-2024-live-updates-donald-trump-vs-kamala-harris-results-presidential-elections-day-latest-news-polls-update?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-672a56278f08243590db2125#block-672a56278f08243590db2125

Reporting from Allentown, Pennsylvania:

I've just left a polling station in Allentown, which was much quieter than the one I went to in nearby Bethlehem first thing this morning.

One the voters I spoke with was Felix Garcia, a 59-year old mechanic who is Puerto Rican. He said that the racist comments a comic made at a rally about the island wouldn't sway his vote.

"I decided to vote for him because I'm very concerned with the economy, the border. He said he can bring the companies to implement the jobs over here. I don't like the things they're teaching my kids in the school. A lot of bad things," he said.

"Trump didn't say [the racist comments about Puerto Rico at his Madison Square Garden rally]. It's not coming from him. He came to work for all America, not only Puerto Ricans. Not only Black guys. All of them. And I'm happy with that."

Another vocal Trump supporter was Jim Winburn, 62, who came out of the polling site and said, loudly, "Trump's already won."

"Republicans tell me what they're gonna do, they don't tell me what the problem with the other people is," he said.

 

[The Minsky Moment]

Trump declares victory in New Hampshire based on win in Dixville Notch, demands that all further counting in the state cease.

[Barrister]

You know I'm just trying to not over-think it.

If you just look at the polling averages, Trump wins it.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

PA, NC, NV - all go Trump.  The fact Harris wins MI and WI isn't enough.  287-251 Electoral College.

Nationally, Harris is only up 0.1 points on Trump.  In comparison, the polling was Biden up 7.2 in 2020 and Clinton up 3.2 in 2016 - and both those elections were closer than the final polls.

It's still an extremely close election so any outcome is possible - but I do not feel a sense of optimism.

[OttoVonBismarck]

So part of the reason some of the aggregators like 538 give Kamala final edge, is they weight based on "poll quality." RCP is more of a raw aggregator, they just show you every poll ran. Some of the Trumpier polls are actually ran by organizations who only do polls to set a political narrative (they don't even publish their cross tabs), those guys are filtered out of the 538 algorithm entirely. Some of the others are just "lower quality" for any number of reasons, and get poor grades.

It isn't perfect--but there's a reason I'm worried about Trump's chances, and it is that the deeper narrative behind many of these polls IMO is not positive to Trump.

I am aware of the fact many of you think Trump means the end of NATO and other things, that just isn't very likely. Trump would be President, not dictator, and not King. The President doesn't have unilateral power to leave NATO. The President lacks the power to do many of the worst case scenario things you guys are worried about.

The flipside, for those who are not fans of Trump (and by the way, I'm not either, voting isn't always about who you are a fan of)--Trump will likely secure Israel the protection and support it needs. We are literally looking at a large scale war with Iran in the very near future, and the Democrats are infamously weak and conciliatory towards Iran and increasingly Israel-skeptical. The harms from more Democratic rule, until they can right their ship on those issues, is something a lot of people are sleeping on.

[The Minsky Moment]

Isn't the RCP average just an unweighted average of all polls?  If so, it's not very informative.  There are more GOP partisan polling companies operating this cycle.

I see Otto beat me to it.

[The Minsky Moment]

The President doesn't have unilateral power to leave NATO.

Sure he does, in all but the most ghostly residual form.

He could direct the military to cease operating within the alliance framework, cease military coordination with NATO allies, publicly repudiate alliance commitments, and take other steps that would effectively kill the alliance. The words of the treaty might still be on the books but only as a dead letter.

[Barrister]

I am aware of the fact many of you think Trump means the end of NATO and other things, that just isn't very likely. Trump would be President, not dictator, and not King. The President doesn't have unilateral power to leave NATO. The President lacks the power to do many of the worst case scenario things you guys are worried about.

The strength of NATO is Article V - mutual self-defence.

Trump is the Commander in Chief.  If he says "Fuck Poland and the Baltics - those guys are on their own" then NATO is over, even if the formal structure remains in place.  Similarly with Ukraine - even if Congress authorizes aid, Trump can refuse to give it.

None of this is theoretical - John Bolton (Trump's former National Security Advisor) has said Trump wants to withdraw from NATO.  Trump already tried to withhold aid to Ukraine (that was the whole first impeachment) - and that was before the full-scale war started.

He's also able to unilaterally impose tariffs - he already did so in his first term.

[PJL]

John Bolton has also said that Trumps erratic, unpredictable and transactional nature would weaken alliances with the US, including Israel's. Whereas at least Harris will give continuity in the short term.

[Josquius]

Yeah. Trump is absolutely the pick of Hamas, Putin, China and so on

[Tamas]

Reporting from Allentown, Pennsylvania:

Nearly every voter I've spoken with today has said the economy is their top issue.

Tiana Peters, a 39-year-old underwriter from Allentown is a Democrat, but she voted for Donald Trump. She also voted for Democrats in lower offices down the ticket.

"The last four years, nothing really good happened," she said. "Giving away free money to the people that can't afford houses, financially that doesn't work, you know."

"I've been wanting to buy a house for years now and under the current haven't been able to do that. It's just like half a million dollars for houses in the Lehigh Valley with four bedrooms. It's just not doable for a family making middle class money."

 

Also, off topic, but its a bit of fascinating cultural difference between America and the UK that in the US it sounds like there are no poor people except the homeless because every working class people struggling to make ends' meet will call themselves the middle class. In the meantime in the UK it sounds like the middle class barely exists because every person with a 4 bedroom house and 3 cars in Surrey are proud of their working class pedigree.

[Sheilbh]

In a similar vein, saw stuff about insurers advertising for basically civil unrest coverage.

[Habbaku]

In a similar vein, saw stuff about insurers advertising for basically civil unrest coverage.

Yes, insurers want to make money off of something that they think unlikely they'll have to pay a claim on.

[Syt]

 

[Sheilbh]

Also, off topic, but its a bit of fascinating cultural difference between America and the UK that in the US it sounds like there are no poor people except the homeless because every working class people struggling to make ends' meet will call themselves the middle class. In the meantime in the UK it sounds like the middle class barely exists because every person with a 4 bedroom house and 3 cars in Surrey are proud of their working class pedigree.

Yes. I think I mentioned it before but according to polling on social identity Britain is a more working class country now than it was in, say, the 80s. Which is...nonsense.

I think the Brit take on America is that they delude themselves into thinking they're a classless society, while Americans think Brits have a completely immaterial, homeopathic view of class. (And they're both right )