2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[DGuller]

You have to admit that so far surprises are not going in Harris direction.  FL being not close at all is alarming.

[frunk]

The Black Nazi is getting trounced in the North Carolina gubernatorial race.  Hopefully that's a good sign for Harris.

Judging from the ads I've seen living in NC the focus has been on tying every other Republican running in state to Robinson, so I'm hoping he'll be a very effective millstone.

[DGuller]

The NYT needle is slowly but surely going Trump's way, and so do the betting markets.  Nothing seems to be developing to Kamala's advantage.  It feels like at this point we really need a 2020 overnight turnaround.

[Grey Fox]

Virginia & North Carolina are concerning.

[The Minsky Moment]

Voters are sending a clear message. Blacks Nazis will not be tolerated.  White Nazis? No problem.

[Legbiter]

So are any other states being called? Aside from Florida.

[DGuller]

Whichever way the final vote goes, the left really needs to search deep into why they repel enough voters that they can't even reliably put Trump away (or at all).  I think 2020 should've served as a wakeup call, but it didn't.  Most Trump voters are in a death cult, but some got there through a gateway of being disillusioned with the left first.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

270towin has a live tracker: https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/president/

[Admiral Yi]

You have to admit that so far surprises are not going in Harris direction.  FL being not close at all is alarming.

The only surprise I'm aware of is Iowa (!!!).  Which surprises are you thinking of?

[Maladict]

NYT tracker now "leaning Trump", 66% chance

[Admiral Yi]

270towin has a live tracker: https://www.270towin.com/2024-election-results-live/president/

Trump only has 15 safe electoral votes left. 

[DGuller]

The worst thing is that I suspect that the needle is calibrated conservatively, because erring towards calling things later is the natural bias.  The fact that the tracker doesn't have enough of a random walk is making me suspect that.  That implies that the 66% Trump chance is an underestimate.

[Legbiter]

NYT tracker now "leaning Trump", 66% chance

Yeah 20% chance for Kamala seems about right.

[Grey Fox]

Nebraska seems to still be competitive for Harris at 40% reporting in.

[HVC]

Dems are behind in the presidential race, house, senate, and congress? That's uhm... not good.