2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Caliga]

But I was thinking someone like him rather than he himself.

That's fair.  Someone like Walz is the only candidate who can win for the Democrats.  Obama was as unique a figure in American politics as Trump is (or at least, I hope he is).

[Tamas]

In a way I am happy Trump won the popular vote as well and that the Trump Party took both houses. No excuse to hide behind for the Dems.

Also I heard it on the Rest is Politics live show('s recording) and it's hard to argue with (and it agrees with DGuller as well in a way): the Democrats have lost the culture war.

[Maladict]

OK so twice a woman run against Trump once a man. Can we say America is not ready for women to leave the kitchen?

It seems the majority of voters would like to return to the 50s. The 1850s, if possible.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Guller did you see the Jersey numbers?
Check out Passaic and Bergen.

Van Drew won comfortably, and that's all you need to know.

I really hope that Democrat introspection would be an open and honest one, and not a sarcastic one like "we should lie without shame, our women should be back in the kitchen", and so on.

They've lost grip on an important constituency, and clearly they didn't get enough in return.  We may not have too many more free and fair elections, let's try to extract the right lessons this time.

The lesson here is people are self-interested scum. I want to move out of Cumberland (Trump country) because the yokels are already so insufferable.

The south of New Jersey has always been Alabama.  Bergen county, however, is exactly the kind of demographic that Democrats should be capturing:  suburban highly educated folks that probably commute to NYC.  To be almost even with Trump there?  There is clearly a message there.

Maybe I haven't been here long enough, but I'm only mildly surprised by Bergen, Passaic, and (to a lesser extent) Morris.  My impression is that the highly-educated in Bergen are more likely to be in jobs and income brackets where their self-interest supersedes their politics.  Contrast Bergen with Essex, where I feel these people are more likely to be in media (and which was the most blue county this election).  Then there's the whole Highway 17 corridor, which has always struck me as the kind of area Trump has been doing unexpectedly well in.  In Passaic it may have been that head-scratching Hispanic vote that tiled the county.

[Caliga]

Maybe I haven't been here long enough, but I'm only mildly surprised by Bergen, Passaic, and (to a lesser extent) Morris.  My impression is that the highly-educated in Bergen are more likely to be in jobs and income brackets where their self-interest supersedes their politics.  Contrast Bergen with Essex, where I feel these people are more likely to be in media (and which was the most blue county this election).  Then there's the whole Highway 17 corridor, which has always struck me as the kind of area Trump has been doing unexpectedly well in.  In Passaic it may have been that head-scratching Hispanic vote that tiled the county.

The Hispanic vote really isn't that head-scratching.  As a voting bloc they are not interested in identity politics, and are by and large poor, so the messaging that resonates with them is 'give us more money'.  The Democrats have been trying to treat them the same as black voters, and that doesn't and isn't going to work.

[Valmy]

In a way I am happy Trump won the popular vote as well and that the Trump Party took both houses. No excuse to hide behind for the Dems.

I was thinking the opposite. There is no excuse for Trump and the Trump Party to not do all the things they promised.

But of course mysteriously nobody ever seems to remember any of the policies Trump promised and they seem to just lap up whatever he does do, so maybe that is not even a factor. 

Also I heard it on the Rest is Politics live show('s recording) and it's hard to argue with (and it agrees with DGuller as well in a way): the Democrats have lost the culture war.

The culture war is a weird thing though. It was around 2016 that people were saying we needed to shut up about it because the left had obviously won, only for it to almost immediately be lost again.

So we'll see on that one. The problem is that this is not a political issue but a cultural one and it comes from the core supporters not some political strategy.

[Valmy]

The Democrats have been trying to treat them the same as black voters, and that doesn't and isn't going to work.

Sure but the Democrats have plenty of Hispanics in the party. But they do not seem to be providing any guidance or leadership here. The problem with Hispanics was obvious four years ago. People were sounding the alarm. But for whatever reason the Party was unable to respond.

I am, of course, completely clueless. I could think of many people who might pull Hispanic votes but Donald Trump was not on my list. He has the juice. That has always been obvious.

[Sheilbh]

Let's face it: yes. Dems have tried: a white woman, an old school white guy, and a black woman. Only one of them managed to beat Trump.

It might help, but I think we need to integrate Obama's two terms into this analysis. There is definitely a backlash side to that but there are also much talked about Obama-Trump swing voters.

Obviously I would say this because it agrees with my priors, but I remember saying in 2020 that there were basically two strategies from the Democratic candidates: one was to double down on college-educated Americans and minorities (the "Obama coalition") which I think was the strategy of, say, Warren, Buttigieg and Harris; the other was to keep fighting for working class Americans and orient your position around them (without giving ground on other issues), which was Sanders and Biden. Basically a white collar v blue collar Democratic strategy - I'd also put Clinton in the first camp.

And I wonder if part of it - which is why we distinguish Obama - is that how his coalition has been interpreted is college educated plus minorities, which is a really important part of it but not all of it. But I think the most baffling state level result in recent years is Obama winning Indiana in 2008 - and in both 2008 and 2012 he performed really strongly in mid-Western states. Part of that may be Illinois/Chicago effect but I also wonder if part of it - in the context of the crash and bank bailouts etc - is that he was also able to pick up that blue collar support. And perhaps that is the key bit? We underestimate Obama's appeal for a specific blue collar constituency.

I could be totally wrong and this is just my priors but I think if you're on the left of politics you can't give up the space around class and trying to win working class voters because, without that, what are you even for? I hope that's something the Democrats look at. (I'd add that from a UK perspective Starmer's campaign team are absolutely focused on class and working class voters - they do not want to cede a single working class voter to the Tories or Reform - I think it's also true of the more successful centre-left parties in the rest of Europe - and the one incumbent who has done well in recent years: Morena.)

Also I do think the political correctness (and I don't mean "wokeness" here) hurt Democrats because they were not able to say things that were obviously true and of concern to voters. Whether it's Biden's health, how good a candidate Harris was, or even issues like cost of living or immigration. There's been far too many examples of Democrats thinking they can remove an issue from voters minds by simply refusing to talk about it. And people who pushed against that there were criticised for not getting on board, or hurting your own side or using Republican talking points. I think it's a particular weakness against Trump because he isn't a traditional disciplined, focus-grouped, on message candidate with talking points - but I also think the culture prevented really significant problems being addressed properly, or more convincing, empathetic arguments being worked out.

[The Minsky Moment]

Also I heard it on the Rest is Politics live show('s recording) and it's hard to argue with (and it agrees with DGuller as well in a way): the Democrats have lost the culture war.

That's a pretty definitive statement.  If it were true, then Keri Lake wouldn't be trailing well below the national ticket in Arizona, Robinson wouldn't have been crushed etc.

Numbers are still coming in.  But what it looks like is: (1) significant chunk of Democratic voters stayed home, and (2) since 2016 there has been a small bloc of voters (around 1% maybe a little more) that flips back and forth and votes against the party in power.

It's a free country (still), so construct any grand narrative you want, but I don't think the data is going to support it.

[Solmyr]

But, you do have a point however what you are ignoring is that the wokeism you hate is a made-up issue. Not in the sense that it doesn't exist at all, but in the sense of practical impact on people's lives.

This is bubble thinking.  The left really needs to understand just how much resentment on the very fucking left their woke dogma is causing.  Doesn't mean that everyone on the left with resentment stops voting left, but to me all you people who minimize the impact of wokedom just seem to live in a different reality.  I understand why, the left does its best to shut off critical discussions of wokedom at the root, but please stop that minimization.

Please give examples of how "woke dogma" has majorly impacted people's lives. Shit made up by conservatives doesn't count.

[chipwich]

But, you do have a point however what you are ignoring is that the wokeism you hate is a made-up issue. Not in the sense that it doesn't exist at all, but in the sense of practical impact on people's lives.

This is bubble thinking.  The left really needs to understand just how much resentment on the very fucking left their woke dogma is causing.  Doesn't mean that everyone on the left with resentment stops voting left, but to me all you people who minimize the impact of wokedom just seem to live in a different reality.  I understand why, the left does its best to shut off critical discussions of wokedom at the root, but please stop that minimization.

Please give examples of how "woke dogma" has majorly impacted people's lives. Shit made up by conservatives doesn't count.

False alarm guys, it turns out woke isn't real.

[Tamas]

Ok this is for DG not so much for Chip (although feel free to chip in), what's a particular woke thing, that you think is done regularly and the Democrats should either not do it or if they haven't been doing it, also call out against it.

[DGuller]

Please give examples of how "woke dogma" has majorly impacted people's lives. Shit made up by conservatives doesn't count.

I live in a NYC area.  A whole lot of stores have a lot of their merchandise locked away behind glass these days.  That used to happen only in very dangerous neighborhoods.  I've had several incidents just in the last year where I'm stuck in a subway car with a clearly aggressive homeless person, and all I'm thinking is "please don't draw his attention, make him harass someone else", because I'm stuck in a metal box there.  That gives a very clear feeling that something is not right in the society.

Why did that come about?  Because wokedom suppressed balanced adult discussions about policing, and eventually because of a thumb on the scale of discussion policies were enacted that essentially gave up on enforcement of petty crimes.  A couple of months ago, the last time I was in a subway car with a homeless person walking around terrifying passengers who were all frozen, I had a though that a couple of Trump voters were born that day.  People really value not being scared above almost everything else.

[chipwich]

Ok this is for DG not so much for Chip (although feel free to chip in), what's a particular woke thing, that you think is done regularly and the Democrats should either not do it or if they haven't been doing it, also call out against it.

Pro-Hamas campus hate encampments.

[Solmyr]

Wow, police ignoring petty crimes is woke? I guess that word really does mean absolutely nothing.