2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Obviously the state/electoral college point is what Democrats will (and should) focus on.

But just on that popular vote point, I think turnout is probably lower and we're still at 80% reporting but Trump is on about 71 million compared to 74 million in 2020 (and 63 million in 2016). Harris is on 66 million compared to 81 million in 2020 (and 66 million in 2024).

That strikes me as a bit of a disaster. It's really important to understand who those voters are.

[Sheilbh]

No. This is a huge win with a big mandate.

It was a massacre.

That's what I was saying, no?

I agree anyway.

[Valmy]

No. This is a huge win with a big mandate.

It was a massacre.

That's what I was saying, no?

I agree anyway.

Yes I was agreeing that no, this was not like 2016. This was far worse.

[frunk]

I think Harris ran a decent traditional campaign with an impressive ground game.  Unfortunately that doesn't matter anymore.  I think there was a huge amount of micro-targeted anti-Harris agitprop in social media, and it mostly didn't get reported.  The last week of the election my limited social media interaction hit me with several clips including one that claimed Harris would start WW III.  My sense is that a non-zero number of those were AI generated, and we really don't have a good way of tracking what is going on in this environment at all.  Almost all reporting was about what the campaigns and candidates were doing, which is not what most people are exposed to and hence really doesn't matter.

The other odd point is the ~10% split in states with abortion referendums between the success of the referendum and Harris.  I'd be curious to see if the referendums actually suppressed voting for Harris since the voter could consider themselves as having protected abortion rights even when not supporting Harris.  Unfortunately the chance for a nationwide abortion ban has just shot way up.

[garbon]

One other quick thought is that I think this should make us look at Biden 2020 in a different light and worth looking at closely.

Run likeable enough white men?

[HisMajestyBOB]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJQAB9tYt1k

[garbon]

I'm calling it, there is just nothing going Kamala's way, nothing at all.  Every update is just an additional nail in her coffin.  The left really needs to get its shit together and decide whether it wants to win elections or signal its virtues.

Well, courting Republicans clearly hasn't worked, so next time maybe try going for more left-wing voters?

I think any piece of shit left-wing voter who held their nose and withhehld their vote deserves to see the collapse of any of their pet causes. See if those consequences are more to their liking.

[Josquius]

I would agree with the first woman as a republican angle. It makes sense.

Well we have an example: Kari Lake. We had lots of people who voted for Trump and then voted for her male Democratic opponent.

We've also lots of examples  of male offbrand trumps losing.

[crazy canuck]

I'm calling it, there is just nothing going Kamala's way, nothing at all.  Every update is just an additional nail in her coffin.  The left really needs to get its shit together and decide whether it wants to win elections or signal its virtues.

Well, courting Republicans clearly hasn't worked, so next time maybe try going for more left-wing voters?

I think any piece of shit left-wing voter who held their nose and withhehld their vote deserves to see the collapse of any of their pet causes. See if those consequences are more to their liking.

Yeah, the astounding naivety of the Left who thought defeating Harris was the imperative so they can get what they want next time.

Cue the Monty Python "splinter" sketch.

[Tamas]

One other quick thought is that I think this should make us look at Biden 2020 in a different light and worth looking at closely.

Run likeable enough white men?

Let's face it: yes. Dems have tried: a white woman, an old school white guy, and a black woman. Only one of them managed to beat Trump.

Then again, at 82, Trump shall struggle to maintain his mojo, so there's that

[Tamas]

So, at the end of day, Harris did worse than Hillary Clinton?

[PJL]

One other quick thought is that I think this should make us look at Biden 2020 in a different light and worth looking at closely.

IMO a lot of that was due to the pandemic. In a normal year, Trump would have won that one as well.

[garbon]

One other quick thought is that I think this should make us look at Biden 2020 in a different light and worth looking at closely.

Run likeable enough white men?

Let's face it: yes. Dems have tried: a white woman, an old school white guy, and a black woman. Only one of them managed to beat Trump.

Hardly a revelation though.

[viper37]

I'm calling it, there is just nothing going Kamala's way, nothing at all.  Every update is just an additional nail in her coffin.  The left really needs to get its shit together and decide whether it wants to win elections or signal its virtues.

Well, courting Republicans clearly hasn't worked, so next time maybe try going for more left-wing voters?

I think any piece of shit left-wing voter who held their nose and withhehld their vote deserves to see the collapse of any of their pet causes. See if those consequences are more to their liking.

They don't care.  They like it that way, theh have a reason to complain about life being miserable.

[DGuller]

I do recall reading a Reddit poster who was an Ohio Republican voting for Harris.  He implored the others on that liberal subreddit to please not argue politics with their Republican friends who may be on the fence, because he saw multiple times how it snaps them back into Trump territory.  There is something to be said about not triggering people's defensiveness and letting them arrive at a conclusion on their own.

I think it would be a mistake (and patronising) to suggest most voters didn't vote based on their own conclusions but simply as they were "triggered."

Yeah, especially as they see themselves the "no nonsense" side, I am not keen to walk on egg shells lest I disturb he delicate mental balance of people voting fascist.

I think it goes back to what I think should be the top question:  do you want to feel superior about yourself or do you want to win elections?