Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Duque de Bragança]

Assemblée Nationale will be a mess:

https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/07/08/en-direct-legislatives-2024-de-nombreux-responsables-politiques-prennent-la-parole-ce-soir-a-la-television_6247441_823448.html

Bonjour,

La réponse n'est pas simple à apporter, et pour cause, c'est tout l'enjeu des dix prochains jours, chaque élu ayant jusqu'au 18 juillet (jour d'inauguration de la 17e législature) pour décider de son affiliation.

Quelques éléments de compréhension cependant :

Le groupe RN devrait rassembler une majorité de ses 126 élus. Certains en seront cependant écartés puisque Jordan Bardella a déclaré, il y a quelques heures : « Les gens qui ont tenu des propos qui ne sont pas conformes à ma vision, à ce que nous défendons, à la ligne politique que je porte, ne siégeront pas » au sein du groupe parlementaire – le président du parti d'extrême droite n'a pas précisé qui cela concernait ;
Les députés LR-Ciottiste sont au nombre de 17 et peuvent donc constituer un groupe (il faut pour cela au moins 15 élus), mais leur stratégie n'est pas connue à ce stade ;
Le « canal historique » de LR, soit 45 députés, devrait former un groupe ;
Le camp présidentiel devrait a priori compter trois groupes, comme sous la précédente législature, le groupe Renaissance (102 députés), celui du MoDem (33 députés) et celui d'Horizons (25 députés). La stratégie de certains élus centristes, notamment d'anciens députés du groupe LIOT ou de l'UDI, à leur égard est inconnue à ce stade.
A gauche, les incertitudes sont nombreuses. Un groupe LFI va se former, mais certains des 74 élus investis par le mouvement dans le cadre du NFP ont déjà déclaré qu'ils n'y siégeraient pas, notamment François Ruffin (dès avant le second tour) et Clémentine Autain (dimanche soir). Le groupe PS devrait rassembler les 59 députés du parti, et un autre groupe les 28 élus estampillés EELV. EELV = Greens

Restent les communistes (9 élus) et ceux que nous avons décidé d'étiqueter « autre NFP » (Aurélien Rousseau et Emmanuel Maurel par exemple, ainsi que d'autres dissidents LFI comme Alexis Corbière, Danielle Simmonet et Hendrik Davi) et gauche hors NFP (David Habib, Dominique Potier, certains élus d'outre-mer comme le néodéputé Emmanuel Tjibaou), qui sont issus de courants divers et pourraient soit rejoindre des groupes constitués, soit créer le leur en rassemblant plus de quinze élus.

Pour étudier plus en détail la répartition des forces en présence, vous pouvez consulter cet article en effectuant des recherches par groupe (NFP, RN, LR...), tout en gardant à l'esprit que la répartition est basée sur le parti qui les a investi, et non sur leur choix à venir.

[Duque de Bragança]

Come on. It's clear to all world figures on the issue that le pen was the risk for Ukraine.
No matter what Melanchons views may be he is overrated as a threat.
Plus key point that is being forgotten, melanchon hasn't won this election.

The problem with that view is that Bardella lead this campaign and has had quite a few pro-Ukraine statements, (to be taken at face value?  ), something Mélenchon never did. Even Marine did not go as far in the pro-Kremlin stances as Mélenchon. Only Zemmour did, at times, but he has clearly lost this time (no seat at all).

As for Mélenchon not winning this election, not only he did not lose it, he is also strengthened by the result, at the very least. He is at the helm of the leading party of the leftist coalition, despite some splintering; typical leftism if you ask me, à la protestant. 

[Duque de Bragança]

To sum up, Jordan Barella follows the Meloni line, while Marine Le Pen follows the Salvini line.
It was Barella who lead this campaign, not Marine.

Au RN, Jordan Bardella et Marine Le Pen ne sont pas sur la même ligne internationale
POLITISCOPE. Les deux leaders du parti d'extrême droite ne partagent pas les mêmes vues sur l'Ukraine. Jordan Bardella est sur la ligne pro-américaine de Giorgia Meloni. Marine Le Pen sur celle de Matteo Salvini, qui affiche ses convictions pro-russes. Une divergence de vues qui traduit les divisions internes au RN.
Marc Endeweld
Marc Endeweld
02 Sept 2023, 7:15
 
 
 
 
 
 
(Crédits : CHRISTIAN HARTMANN)
En juin 2022, Marine Le Pen avait été accueillie à l'Élysée par Emmanuel Macron. Cette année, c'est en tant que chef de parti que Jordan Bardella a participé à la rencontre avec le chef de l'État à Saint-Denis. Emmanuel Macron avait appelé le leader d'extrême droite auparavant au téléphone. Mais au sein du Rassemblement National, ces deux têtes d'affiche sont de moins en moins en ligne, notamment sur les questions internationales. « Ces derniers mois, Bardella a essayé de changer les alliances en Italie, préférant Giorgia Meloni, qui est clairement pro-américaine, pro-OTAN, et pro-européenne, à Matteo Salvini, qui est pro-russe et l'allié historique du RN via la Ligue du Nord », analyse un ancien proche de

https://www.latribune.fr/economie/france/au-rn-jordan-bardella-et-marine-le-pen-ne-sont-pas-sur-la-meme-ligne-internationale-974735.html

Relations internationales
En février 2023, Jordan Bardella applaudit un discours de Volodymyr Zelensky au Parlement européen, contre l'avis de son groupe parlementaire118. Au sujet de la guerre russo-ukrainienne, il estime que Vladimir Poutine mène une guerre contre l'Occident et qu'« il y a entre la France et la Russie une guerre d'intérêt et une guerre d'influence qui s'étend jusqu'à l'Afrique ». Il déclare également qu'il ne peut y avoir d'issue à cette guerre « sans le retrait des troupes russes et sans le retour à une souveraineté pleine et entière de l'Ukraine dans les territoires aujourd'hui occupés par la Russie ». Son entourage précise cependant à Libération que cette déclaration ne concerne pas la Crimée et les autres territoires contrôlés par les sécessionnistes depuis la guerre du Donbass119,120. La Tribune analyse que « Jordan Bardella est sur la ligne pro-américaine de Giorgia Meloni » alors que « Marine Le Pen est sur celle de Matteo Salvini, affichant ses convictions pro-russes »121.

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan_Bardella

French wiki article, I know, but sourced.

[viper37]

And yet the Greens and PS are cavorting with the scum that is Melenchon: Putin-lover, Ukraine-hater, Hamas-friend. It says alot about those parties. If the meant what they said they wouldn't even be in an alliance with Melenchon. It wouldn't even be considered.
Yet here we are...

Churchill gladly worked with Staline to defeat Hitler.  I guess he was a of communism. 

Let's not get silly.  Churchill never gladly worked with Stalin.

The point is he did worked with Staline to achieve a common objective: defeat the bigger threat of the moment.  He wasn't Stalin's pals.  He might have shared a glass of whiskey with him at their meetings and exchanged politeness but he never trusted him.

But he was sure happy that the USSR joined the war against Nazi Germany.  If you can point me to any writings were Churchill lamented that he could not fight both the USSR and Nazi Germany at the same time, I'll gladly take the time to read it.

[viper37]

Lepen's sister has visited occupied Ukraine a number of times, so has a number of high ranking FN members and they're all in Russia's payroll like the high ranking GOP officers.

They're not our friends, they're not there to defend us or our values, they are there to sow dissent and distrust.

They started with the Jews and moved on with the Arabs and other immigrants.  Now they rail against Ukraine and Ukrainians.

Primo

- Marion-Maréchal Le Pen is Marine's niece, not her sister.

Secundo

- She is not in her aunt's party, having joined Zemmour's Reconquête.

- Tertio

She got booted out of Reconquête following her attempt to ally with her aunt's party (Rassemblement Familial ?) while being rejected by the RN. 

Quarto

- Neither of them are railing against Ukrainians.Both welcomed Ukrainian refugees (real ones they said unlike you know whom).
Railing against central and eastern Europeans is the province of Mélenchon, who not only is anti-Ukrainian but has said on record (2017 Presidential elections debate between candidates before the first round), that he would leave the Balts fend for themselves since "they have had troubles with the Russians for a thousand years" and that agreement with Russians about new borders is doable, if not necessary. Not to mention his analysis of the detached worked issue being caricatured to "Polish Plumbers" invasion. Guess who he will choose if there is trouble between Putin and the Poles...

Marie-Caroline:

Elle est reçue à Moscou en 2018 par Konstantin Malofeïev, un oligarque nationaliste ultra-conservateur proche de Vladimir Poutine, soupçonné d'être derrière le premier prêt russe du Rassemblement national, d'avoir joué un rôle décisif dans l'annexion de la Crimée et d'avoir financé des séparatistes prorusses dans le Donbass³⁸. Son mari Philippe Olivier, eurodéputé RN, s'est également déplacé en Crimée deux ans plus tard, en tant qu'observateur du référendum constitutionnel³⁹.

I believe she also recently visisted the Donbas but I can't find it.  Maybe I was mistaken.

[Duque de Bragança]

Marie-Caroline:

Elle est reçue à Moscou en 2018 par Konstantin Malofeïev, un oligarque nationaliste ultra-conservateur proche de Vladimir Poutine, soupçonné d'être derrière le premier prêt russe du Rassemblement national, d'avoir joué un rôle décisif dans l'annexion de la Crimée et d'avoir financé des séparatistes prorusses dans le Donbass³⁸. Son mari Philippe Olivier, eurodéputé RN, s'est également déplacé en Crimée deux ans plus tard, en tant qu'observateur du référendum constitutionnel³⁹.

I believe she also recently visisted the Donbas but I can't find it.  Maybe I was mistaken.

She is not that well known and has had no real influence, unlike Marion-Maréchal.

Jordan Barella has way more influence that these two.

PS: that does support the Front/Rassemblement familial joke, however, I'll grant you that.

[crazy canuck]

The point is he did worked with Staline to achieve a common objective: defeat the bigger threat of the moment.  He wasn't Stalin's pals.  He might have shared a glass of whiskey with him at their meetings and exchanged politeness but he never trusted him.

But he was sure happy that the USSR joined the war against Nazi Germany.  If you can point me to any writings were Churchill lamented that he could not fight both the USSR and Nazi Germany at the same time, I'll gladly take the time to read it.

You are over simplifying things. Churchill was never "happily" working with Stalin.  Churchill's anti-communist sentiments are well known and can be summed up in one of his quotes:  "I have only one purpose, the destruction of Hitler, and my life is much simplified thereby. If Hitler invaded Hell, I would make at least a favourable reference to the Devil in the House of Commons.

 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Assemblée Nationale will be a mess:

PuPu couldn't lose with RN on the right and Mélénchon on the left. Both in his pocket to a certain degree and the 'moderate' left to morally bankrupt not to work with Mélénchon.

@Viper37: in these election the realpolitik position for the (morally bankrupt) left was joining up with Macron, not with islamogauchists who'll glady destroy everything and everyone the center left works for (the seculars, the atheists, the women, the lgb, the minorities, the people trying to become middle-class, ...).
But imagine that the center right (which doesn't differ that much from the center left in Western Europe) is seen as more abhorrent than LFI by the center left. This points to a moral compass that is broken, or at the very least not working very well.

regardless: the french people (and in case of the LFI voters, people who just have a french passport) have voted and now they and everyone else will have to suffer the result. Jupiter should have kept quiet and taken the european elections on the chin.

[Legbiter]

regardless: the french people (and in case of the LFI voters, people who just have a french passport) have voted and now they and everyone else will have to suffer the result. Jupiter should have kept quiet and taken the european elections on the chin.

I have 3 sons. My 3 sisters have 2 sons each. You should focus on the best version of yourself.

[Barrister]

regardless: the french people (and in case of the LFI voters, people who just have a french passport) have voted and now they and everyone else will have to suffer the result. Jupiter should have kept quiet and taken the european elections on the chin.

I have 3 sons. My 3 sisters have 5 sons each. You should focus on the best version of yourself.

OK, so not being political here...

I also have three sons.  It's crazy being a parent - I can see different aspects of myself in each of them, plus of course aspects that are completely different.  I would never, ever, focus on just one of them that I thought was the "best version of myself".

If I'm missing some nuance or reference here I'm sorry.  But just straight up I've rarely seen anything on Languish that I disagree with more profoundly.

[viper37]

You are over simplifying things.

I posted one snarky sentence in a discussion forum.  I did not write a political thesis.

Churchill was never "happily" working with Stalin.  Churchill's anti-communist sentiments are well known and can be summed up in one of his quotes:  "I have only one purpose, the destruction of Hitler, and my life is much simplified thereby. If Hitler invaded Hell, I would make at least a favourable reference to the Devil in the House of Commons.
 

Captain obvious.  That was my point that his anti-communists sentiments were well known, yet, despite that, he didn't rush to attack to bomb the USSR.  He cooperated and aided the USSR because they had a common enemy.

He recognized the threat the USSR posed, he always did, but Nazi Germany was the greater evil at the time.  The USSR was not in a position to threaten the Western world in 1941, but they could certainly distract Nazi Germany and relieve some pressure from Great Britain and its colonies.  Churchill likely thought the US would eventually be forced to enter the war too, so any relief on the Battle of Britain until such a time was welcome.

Right now, Mélanchon's party may be less than ideal, but they are just slightly better than LePen's party.  The difference being that the commies are way less popular than the RN for now.

[crazy canuck]

You are over simplifying things.

I posted one snarky sentence in a discussion forum.  I did not write a political thesis.

Churchill was never "happily" working with Stalin.  Churchill's anti-communist sentiments are well known and can be summed up in one of his quotes:  "I have only one purpose, the destruction of Hitler, and my life is much simplified thereby. If Hitler invaded Hell, I would make at least a favourable reference to the Devil in the House of Commons.
 

Captain obvious.  That was my point that his anti-communists sentiments were well known, yet, despite that, he didn't rush to attack to bomb the USSR.  He cooperated and aided the USSR because they had a common enemy.

He recognized the threat the USSR posed, he always did, but Nazi Germany was the greater evil at the time.  The USSR was not in a position to threaten the Western world in 1941, but they could certainly distract Nazi Germany and relieve some pressure from Great Britain and its colonies.  Churchill likely thought the US would eventually be forced to enter the war too, so any relief on the Battle of Britain until such a time was welcome.

Right now, Mélanchon's party may be less than ideal, but they are just slightly better than LePen's party.  The difference being that the commies are way less popular than the RN for now.

I think you forgot where you are making a comment about Churchill like that.

[viper37]

@Viper37: in these election the realpolitik position for the (morally bankrupt) left was joining up with Macron, not with islamogauchists who'll glady destroy everything and everyone the center left works for (the seculars, the atheists, the women, the lgb, the minorities, the people trying to become middle-class, ...).

Macron pretty much burnt all the bridges with everyone.

Macron's candidates were mostly out after the first round:
https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/01/la-carte-des-resultats-des-legislatives-au-premier-tour-et-le-tableau-des-candidats-qualifies_6245574_4355771.html

It did not leave much option for a coalition.
Where they finished first, the moderate left often announced they would retract their candidate and support Macron's candidate.

It was everyone vs the RN.

[Grey Fox]

North America's delegate is still from Macron's party.

[Josquius]

not with islamogauchists who'll glady destroy everything and everyone the center left works for (the seculars, the atheists, the women, the lgb, the minorities, the people trying to become middle-class, ...).

There's 4-8% Muslims in France.
Even if we assume they're all supporters of the Islamic far right (in my experience, no) this is a lot less of a threat than the white far right swarm.