Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

This also seems to be something the UK parliament seems to do more than the others. In the UK this seems to happen all the time. Whereas in Canada it is much rarer. I vaguely recall Kim Campbell and Martin coming to be PMs this way, but much more often they just lose the election. Whereas in the UK it is a little unusual for a PM to survive from an election victory all the way until their party loses their majority.

Not just the UK - as I say I think there's a bit Australian influence on our politics. There Scott Morrison who lost the last election was the first PM to serve a full term since John Howard in 2004-2007.

The reason it's happened more in the UK in recent years is we've had PMs who have failed in different ways and for different reasons. But you're right we've had 17 PMs since the war - of those, only Attlee, Heath and Wilson (sort of) both won and lost power through elections. But I'm sure there's a political culture thing too - and Canada's an interesting example (American influence - that you have a term?).

The thing that slightly worries me about trends in our politics is whether we're going to lock into a cycle of long periods of one party rule. Tories for 18 years, then New Labour for 13, then the Tories for 12-15 - and now Labour look set for another landslide that would lock the Tories out of power for several terms. I'm not sure how healthy that is.

Edit: And on the Australian connection - mentioned before but the comms team that worked for Howard and I think still works for the Liberals has run every big Tory campaign since 2005, while various senior Labour advisors worked for the Australian Labor Party (and vice-versa). Given the very strong Australian impact in backroom staff of the big parties I think their may be an element of convergence on political culture - which will now hopefully continue with a massive landslide victory for a not particularly charismatic Labour leader

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally I think there's a strong case for AR's suggestion - Sunak's at 100 so he's in the contest. Once he gets to 110-120 I think he should start lending support to Mordaunt if he can to get her in the contest and knock Johnson out.

[The Larch]

Incidentally I think there's a strong case for AR's suggestion - Sunak's at 100 so he's in the contest. Once he gets to 110-120 I think he should start lending support to Mordaunt if he can to get her in the contest and knock Johnson out.

Wasn't it said that if anyone got 100 MP's support he'd get the PM job automatically?

[The Minsky Moment]

I'm still silently rooting for Penny Mordaunt if only because she has a surname that seems out of a villain in an Arthurian legend, coupled with "Penny".

It's a villain's surname in the Three Musketeers sequel actually.

Mordaunt-Short was (still is?) a UK manufacturer of good quality loudspeakers.  Still have a pair of smallish size towers that I got about 25 years ago.

[HVC]

Incidentally I think there's a strong case for AR's suggestion - Sunak's at 100 so he's in the contest. Once he gets to 110-120 I think he should start lending support to Mordaunt if he can to get her in the contest and knock Johnson out.

Would that work? Right now it seems like the Tories should change their party name to the "no sunak's allowed club"   

[Richard Hakluyt]

Mordaunt was instrumental in ensuring the death of Charles I despite the best efforts of D'Artagnan and the other musketeers in Twenty Years After.

Penny Mordaunt is his remote descendant I guess and we have another Charles on the throne       

[HVC]

[Richard Hakluyt]

The Star is comparing Johnson to an aubergine/eggplant :

https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1583554517945065472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1583554517945065472%7Ctwgr%5E40ea2e6db9ed34d5bbf06aa41ef6fd126ffbedca%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fuk-news%2F2022%2Foct%2F22%2Fsurely-not-again-what-the-papers-say-about-johnson-and-the-tory-leadership-race

Appropriate I guess.

[Josquius]

So. Are we hoping it's Lady Mordaunt to cement the doom, knowing we have to live with it 2 more years, or Sunak as miraculously he is the least terrible option.

Johnson of course is shit for the country and has an appeal to the brain dead thus cannot be considered.

[Sheilbh]

Wasn't it said that if anyone got 100 MP's support he'd get the PM job automatically?

No, that's the minimum number of nominations to be a candidate.

Sunak now on 110 and Johnson on 71, up from about 60 this times yesterday (Sky dropped their spreadsheet so I had to use the dodgy Guido Fawkes one). Again, if I was a former PM rushing from the Caribbean to save my party and country - I think I'd like a bit more of a clamour

Especially after Charles Moore, a very close friend and ally of Johnson (in the press), did his article in the Telegraph saying "now" is not the time for him to run again. Moore is the guy who complained to Johnson about Owen Paterson's suspension which kicked off everything - it'd be very in character for Johnson to ignore his advice the one time it's good.

Edit: It could swing again - but at the minute it looks like the momentum is against Johnson/not going in his direction.

So. Are we hoping it's Lady Mordaunt to cement the doom, knowing we have to live with it 2 more years, or Sunak as miraculously he is the least terrible option.

Regrettably I think it should be Sunak - Mordaunt is still pretty unknown in terms of what her politics are. I think she's a risk.

Weirdly I also think if Sunak won in September he'd have had a torrid time, while I think he has a greater chance of a successful premiership now.

[Sheilbh]

For those who care Lord Frost has endorsed Sunak. Relevant mainly because it confirms indications that there were serious splits on the right/ERG wing of the party.

There may still be a candidate of the right (although these categories are semi-meaningless in this race) who will just act as a spoiller at this point. Some are likely to row in behind Johnson, but a number - such as Frost and Baker - are fairly anti-Johnson by now.

It's interesting that they weren't really able to move as a block in the last leadership until quite late in the day and signs are they aren't able to this time either.

Edit: Steve Barclay also endorsing Sunak - he was a Johnson dead-ender in the summer. It feels like the walls are closing in on him with Frost, Moore and now Barclay all deciding not to back him.

He might still get to 100 and he might still win, but I think it's probably more likely he does the regretful decline the entreaties of a grateful party routine.

Edit: And useful chart on public endorsements - at this rate it might well be Sunak by acclamation:


Edit: Incidentally Johnson is still under investigation by the Privileges Committee who will start hearing public evidence about partygate in the next few weeks (they've already had the written evidence, photos etc). This is obviously a huge obstacle to Johnson winning again and would swallow up his time if he did win. The current strategy apparently would be to try and cancel it by a vote of the House of Commons:


That would mean almost a year to the day after Johnson's collapse started by putting a three line whip overruling the suspension of a Tory MP, Johnson would inaugurate his return to power by putting a three line whip overruling an investigation into him that might lead to a suspension. It's why they'd be insane to go for him, it's just an incredible rhyme over a year and if they're in a party in a sort of fugue-state.

[Sheilbh]

This seems interestingly phrased from the BBC Political Editor:

Chris Mason
@ChrisMasonBBC
NEW: I'm told Boris Johnson now has more than 100 backers and so could be on the ballot if he chooses to be

He still has 60 public endorsements and 40 secret/anonymous endorsements apparently which all sounds...

In our system facing, with many issues that are quite difficult to address it feels sub-optimal that you can get 100 of your colleagues to public say they support you. It also doesn't exactly match the narrative I think he wants as, as Marina Hyde put it, Cincinnatus called from luxury sun-lounger.

Separately David Davis who was a key Penny Mordaunt supporter last time has endorsed Sunak. I could be wrong - Johnson might go for it and get the nominations he needs to sweep the membership off their feet - but it's all starting to feel a little bit inevitable now. Sunak might become PM on Monday at this rate - which would be a very nice way for him to celebrate Diwali.

Edit: Johnson and Sunak are meeting this evening and rumours now that Johnson will endorse Sunak - we'll see (I'd be wildly pissed off if I'd cut short a holiday in the Dominican Republic for a job interview I didn't get ).

[OttoVonBismarck]

Eh, I'm not tremendously shocked Johnson was able to get 100ish backers--that's less than a third of the party MPs and at least 40 of them were only willing to endorse him anonymously for now. When Johnson won his election, he had specifically pruned out many of the Remainer types who were unfriendly to him, so it isn't that shocking he still has some well of loyalists in Parliament. It is a little surprising the professional politicians don't realize he would be toxic for the party, but after Truss's performance I have to think everyone is a bit scatterbrained because there isn't IMO an amazingly great path forward--just lots of bad ones, so I have to think the mentality is "okay how do we make this less bad."

I can see someone fumbling through trying to find an answer in a bad situation being open to the idea that the guy who, not that long ago was quite popular with the public, might be the answer. I don't think it would be good for the conservatives to actually back Johnson, but I can at least sort of understand the thought process behind it.

[OttoVonBismarck]

FWIW I also saw a poll released today that indicated most Tory voters think it was wrong to have forced Johnson out of office. That probably has to factor into it as well.

[Sheilbh]

FWIW I also saw a poll released today that indicated most Tory voters think it was wrong to have forced Johnson out of office. That probably has to factor into it as well.

Yes - though I think that's a bit of buyer's remorse given what's happened since. In July both Tory members and voters thought Johnson should go:


What they're experiencing now is, I imagine, a feeling familar to his ex-employers and ex-wives.

Looking at the lists of public endorsements (and, as I say, I'm dubious of Johnson's "I have another 40 backers but you can't meet them, they go to a different school" approach) and it isn't that factional. Both have support from different strands of the party - this doesn't apply to all of either list but the divide basically seems to be whether they're mad or not.