Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

So Javid, who tried to suggest some policies today has dropped out. All other candidates through to the first round: Badenoch, Braverman, Hunt (dismissing rumours he borrowed votes from Sunak), Mordaunt, Sunak, Truss, Tugendhat and Zahawi (who looked touch and go).

[HVC]

How's Sunak back in the game? I thought his wife's tax avoidance thing had sunk his chances?

[Sheilbh]

How's Sunak back in the game? I thought his wife's tax avoidance thing had sunk his chances?

There weren't any other stories - and from the attack memo doing the rounds on Sunak there aren't any other stories. But also worth noting that Sunak was unusually, exceptionally popular - he is now just an average politician (his approval rating has improved - he's now at about the same level as Starmer):


He's clearly the front-runner now. But I think he's running a pretty poor campaign (and there have always been doubts over his flexibility and political judgement). Today he tried to do an event without taking questions from the press (until they forced him to), it all looks very stilted and there's no real big ideas. It feels like he's trying to not harm his campaign and get to the leadership without doing or saying anything. It's very safety first, very controlled. It all seems a bit David Miliband/Michael Portillo to me and at risk of failing (it's another trope that front-runner don't win - though there are exceptions).

Also if he wins he's going to need to employ Tom Cruise's cinematographer as the Number 10 vanity photographer

[HVC]

Heheh " eat out to help out"

And thanks for the explanation

[Zanza]

How's Sunak back in the game? I thought his wife's tax avoidance thing had sunk his chances?

There weren't any other stories - and from the attack memo doing the rounds on Sunak there aren't any other stories. But also worth noting that Sunak was unusually, exceptionally popular - he is now just an average politician (his approval rating has improved - he's now at about the same level as Starmer):


He's clearly the front-runner now. But I think he's running a pretty poor campaign (and there have always been doubts over his flexibility and political judgement). Today he tried to do an event without taking questions from the press (until they forced him to), it all looks very stilted and there's no real big ideas. It feels like he's trying to not harm his campaign and get to the leadership without doing or saying anything. It's very safety first, very controlled. It all seems a bit David Miliband/Michael Portillo to me and at risk of failing (it's another trope that front-runner don't win - though there are exceptions).

Also if he wins he's going to need to employ Tom Cruise's cinematographer as the Number 10 vanity photographer

Scholz became German Chancellor that way.

[alfred russel]

Why would the sign say "reunite the country" rather than "unite the country"? Are the trying to just make every slogan start with "r" because the candidate's first name starts with "r"?

[Gups]

Dont like any of them, but at least Sunak isn't promising to bankrupt the country in the hope of winning the next election. It's a low bar, I know.

[Sheilbh]

Scholz became German Chancellor that way.

It might work. It's how Johnson won the leadership - and Sunak has people on his team who are very good at managing a campaign. There's already rumours that they'll basically "lend" support to alternative candidates to knock out their big rivals, as Johnson did in 2019.

But the trope here is that front-runners normally don't win (Johnson's one of the exceptions). Partly because they play it too safe, which leaves space for someone else - but also I think the front-runners who've failed take a lead and then don't expand their support.

I think those both risks for Sunak because the sense I get (e.g. that ConservativeHome panel that had Badenoch and Mordaunt top) is that the party wants a clear break. I'm not sure Sunak will win if he's just the establishment, safe, front-runner candidate - at least I think he needs a bold policy announcement.

Why would the sign say "reunite the country" rather than "unite the country"? Are the trying to just make every slogan start with "r" because the candidate's first name starts with "r"?

Yes. I do wonder how the slogans land for someone who's been Chancellor for the last two years but they are: rebuild the economy, restore trust, reunite the country and ready for Rishi.

They seem like odd slogans for someone who's been at the top of government - I think they'd make more sense for one of the change candidates.

[Sheilbh]

Dont like any of them, but at least Sunak isn't promising to bankrupt the country in the hope of winning the next election. It's a low bar, I know.

Agreed. But I think we'd just get more salami slicing and spreadsheet Phil with a bit of charm.

I think some of the others at least might try to do something more with that 80 seat majority than Austerity 2.0.

I think Badenoch is also pitching as a bit more of a realist candidate - because I think there is a gap in the market here. She spoke about politicians "for too long telling you: you can have your cake and eat it" and saying she won't get into a "my tax cuts are bigger than yours" competition because making promises you can't keep is how we got here and a "betrayal" of voters. Of course - and I maybe there is more to her campaign - but I worry that just means all culture wars all the time instead.

[alfred russel]

Yes. I do wonder how the slogans land for someone who's been Chancellor for the last two years but they are: rebuild the economy, restore trust, reunite the country and ready for Rishi.

I can't get past the "start with r" thing. It absolutely reeks of hiring consultants who said, "we need 4 slogans, each two or three words, all united by starting with r because that is the candidate's name. People will really go for that."

What if the four slogans weren't united by the letter r? Would his messaging be totally different if his name was dhiraj? What if his first name was Xavier - how could you get 4 slogans starting with the letter x? Is a person named Xavier or Zachary precluded from becoming prime minister in these modern times?

[Sheilbh]

I can't get past the "start with r" thing. It absolutely reeks of hiring consultants who said, "we need 4 slogans, each two or three words, all united by starting with r because that is the candidate's name. People will really go for that."

FWIW Sunak's whole campaign very much has the vibe of richest MP hiring lots of political consultants, especially the video.

But that might just be his vibe. He's more handsome and has better hair than most British politicians, he went to Stanford - if he wasn't 5'6" I think he'd be a very good American politician

[garbon]

Oh wow great photography on him as I always thought from few things I saw that he was tall. But now I can see how short he is in that last image.

[alfred russel]

A better campaign slogan that should appeal to the Tory base: "A little man for little england!"

[Josquius]

Sunak sort of rhymes with snack.
How long till they do something with this?

[Jacob]

Sunak sort of rhymes with snack.
How long till they do something with this?

Hungry for change? It's Sunak time!