Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[The Larch]

First round in. Sunak in the lead, Hunt and Zahawi out.

[Sheilbh]

Rishi Sunak - 88
Mordaunt - 67
Truss - 50
Badenoch - 40
Tugendhat - 37
Braverman - 32

Eliminated:
Zahawi - 25
Hunt - 18

Hunt actually got two less votes than he needed to be nominated yesterday It's a humiliation for him. Not sure he even gets back into the cabinet after this - and he has run a very weird campaign.

That also looks like a pretty bad result for Truss to me. It's not clear that she'll be the candidate of the right (Badenoch is pretty close and I can see her picking up more from, say, Braverman's supporters) but also she's not the clear "stop Sunak" candidate.

But a really helpful chart (I think all polls should have a "control" answer) on how well known the candidates actually are. In a list of politicians by name recognition Mordaunt sits between Nadine Dorries and Annelise Dobbs:

[The Brain]

Wiki says that Canadian cash in circulation per capita in 2018 was USD 1,924 (increasing compared to 2008) and Swedish cash per capita USD 682 (decreasing), with the UK at USD 1,417 (increasing).

[Sheilbh]

There is a world of difference between a national currency and a crypto currency - both are traded and used through digital technology, but that is where he similarity ends.

Maybe - I think technically there are differences between a central bank issued digital currency (which is what the BofE/Treasury are looking at - as well as the Fed, ECB and PBC) and crypto that are important. Similarly an NFT isn't technically crypto. But I think in public understanding they're all broadly part of the same world - it's all about digital assets that only exist in digital form.

Edit: Incidentally on that first ballot also really striking that basically 150 of 350 MPs went for no name candidates v people who've been long-standing cabinet ministers in this or previous governments. I think that would worry me if I was Sunak or Truss because the breakdown might be less of a left v right contest than a change candidate v more of the same and there's clearly appetite for a clean break with the last government/change.

[crazy canuck]

It is not actually all about whether it is in digital form or not.  Unless you are someone like Pierre Pollivre.  There is a little detail about how that currency is traded through central banks, is backed by a sovereign state etc.

[Tamas]

I think the Chinese central bank is working on practical application of block chain and it is going to be an absolute nightmare.

Also, Sunak does not strike me as a tech bro at all.

[Sheilbh]

That's fair - he's very much on the funding side

[Tamas]

Thus, not a tech bro :p

You are buikding up too big an enthusiasm for this guy Sheilbh.

[Jacob]

Thus, not a tech bro :p

Yeah, wouldn't that be a tech cousin? Or maybe uncle?

[Sheilbh]

You are buikding up too big an enthusiasm for this guy Sheilbh.

What enthusiasm?

I think he's probably the candidate I've been most negative about

Edit: However whoever wins will likely get a bounce and a honeymoon - and may call an election

[alfred russel]

That's fair - he's very much on the funding side

He reminds me of an umpa lumpa.

[Josquius]

The squabbling over who can be the most ignorantly "anti woke" is pretty painful.
I wonder whether they're just fishing for outrage from the left-as getting as much of that as possible is what the tory membership look for?

[garbon]

Captain Crasheroony Snoozefest?

[Sheilbh]

He reminds me of an umpa lumpa.

Still think he's likely to be one of the final two but apparently today was a historically bad showing for a front-runner in a Tory leadership race (and the front-runners don't often win).

Plus reports that the mood among MPs is shifting rapidly - possibly to Mordaunt and Badenoch - what won't help that, for Sunak, was the focus group on Newsnight where he did not go down well. Wealth was an issue but the big thing was lots of people would have liked him six months ago, but he stayed and they felt was "tainted" because of it.

Separately slightly loved the woman who, on seeing one of the culture war-y clips, said it was like watching Loose Women not serious

[Sheilbh]

Second round starting in about 40 minutes. The candidates who survive today's vote will get the three debates over this weekend on the broadcasters - which is probably the primary goal for the less known candidates like Badenoch and Tugendhat. I expect Braverman will be eliminated today, but the others will get through.

Also a bit of an attack on Mordaunt by Lord Frost this morning - on the one hand he sounds off all the time, on the other his attack was that she was basically a bit lazy and a bit lacking in substance (which is rich from someone who rose to prominence with Boris Johnson's patronage). But it does ring a little true because even a week into the campaign I've no real sense of Mordaunt. There's no definition yet. I couldn't say anymore about her now than I did at the start of the campaign and that seems a little worrying to me. The most prominent things she's done is dispute her role in some legislation which has become a trans/culture war flashpoint - and from what I can tell she's lying about it - and repeated the lie about Turkey joining the EU which she made during the Brexit campaign. Which isn't a great impression - but I couldn't say anything about her. It's all vibes.

Sunak apparently had a slightly dodgy/testy interview on the radio - and I'll be really interested to see how he does in the debates. One of the weird things about Sunak is that he's never really been tested in things like debates, or Q&As, or even formats like Question Time. He went from up-and-coming backbencher to junior cabinet minister to Chancellor so quickly that there's lots of seasoning experiences politicians have as they come up that I think he skipped. It'll be interesting to see how he handles it because he always comes across to me as a little stiff and stilted. But also the Treasury has a lot of control over the Chancellor's image - they can basically disappear for months at a time, they've got two big set pieces around the budget and they pre-game that a lot. It's a hugely different job from PM or a more fire-fighting ministry like, say, the Home Office or Health or Education - I think this was an issue with Brown as well. I also just think Sunak might have missed his window of opportunity which was January/February this year when Partygate first landed and he's now damaged goods.

I think Tugendhat and Badenoch are doing well (Badenoch had a decent interview in the Times - a bit about her personal story and also broadened out a bit from just culture wars, plus I think there is space for a "you can't have your cake and eat it" candidate). They're definitely likely to be in the next cabinet. I can't see a path to victory for Tugendhat - I can see a narrow one for Badenoch if she picks up Braverman's supporters and leap-frogs Truss to become the candidate of the right, but that's very, very narrow. But I think both probably need to do very well in the debates to go much further.

Interesting summary of that focus group from Newsnight - MPs care about this stuff (again the number one goal of the Tories is always to win the next election). I believe the Newsnight 2005 focus group was a big part of the shift from David Davis who was the front-runner to Cameron. Again I find the desire for a fresh face/new start really striking:

Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
Key takeaways from this (mainly Conservative inclined group)

-terror/fury about economy, about winter to come.
-short shrift for 'culture war' issues in that context: "what's that got to do with me?" Sole focus cost of living
-desperate to hear about policies to deal with it.
Damage to Conservative brand as a result of the Johnson scandals is real. Feeling was Tory MPs had left it too long.

As a result new broom candidates  went down best. Sunak problems real, both because voters in this group associate him most with BJ but also because of economy.
Most had seen the Sunak working class video, which went down badly. Generally the feeling was that none of Westminster had a clue about how bad things were on cost of living but he was most out of touch of all. Non-dom issue regarding his wife came up as well.
Again on Sunak: "if you'd asked me six months ago I'd have said yeah but not now." Another: "he's leagues away from average person. There's a huge class divide." Agreement was he was polished but damaged.
Only Sunak and Truss were known by the group. Truss was also well known for "those gaffes" which many had seen on TikTok (role and power of funny videos much underplayed in how many voters interpret modern politics).
None of the candidates especially interested the group, though Tugenhadt and Badenoch went down best. As I say, those who are unknown have a genuine opportunity to reach voters, as they're so desperate for direction and ideas, but they'll have to have something to say.
What was striking is how flat 'culture war' issues were, how removed so much of the SW1 conversation which dominates politics and a fair bit of the media really is, despite fact it's often done in name of 'real people'. Any clip where a candidate talked about those issues tanked.
And that's because people felt these are convos they just can't afford to have. They spoke of gas/elec projected bills of £3500+. Deep foreboding about the winter ahead and economic catastrophe. Having to take on second jobs. The gap between public & Westminster never felt wider.
"What they've given my family doesn't cover barely any of my costs." Another on energy: "what they've given me is enough to cover a 1.5 months of my new bill."  And: "they need to focus on the working class, we're not idiots, just because we're not wearing a suit and not posh."
Also striking was in this Brexit voting group how uninterested they were in the subject now: "it's done." Again, they saw it as a distraction from cost of living and didn't want to hear politicians talking about it any more.

Also again, world away from the contest.
I cannot overemphasise, not just from convo with this group but voters elsewhere just how a) pessimistic people are about their own future and country's future  b) the disconnect (ok, always there) between Westminster and public c) deep weariness after years of crisis.
Btw this disconnect spans across Westminster. No great sense from this group Starmer or Labour has the answers- though naturally because Conservatives have been govt for so long, they draw most of the ire.
Btw this may be striking given where the SW1/Westminster conversation is at but it's not remotely surprising. As anyone who has ever struggled to put food on the table or pay a bill knows, when that's the situ you're in of course, it's all you care about.
just one focus group but supported by wider experience and polling. Danger of contest for party, country and media is the candidates/SW1 end up having a conversation in a parallel world to voters, which itself intensifies sense of distance between political class and public.

END

I think the point about Truss and the memes is really interesting. She might be the first candidate to have memed herself out of a contest because despite being in the cabinet for years she's mainly known to most people as a bit weird because of these