Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Sheilbh]

Follow up question - what is a pro-Islamist/Muslim stance in the context of French politics?  That seems to be the thing that determines the definition - although I am still not sure where the "leftist" adjective fits in?

It's a thing that everyone from Macron to the far-right has been talking about "Islamo-leftism" in France's culture wars. It basically includes sports clubs for Muslim kids (literally that's a video that was promoted by the French Ministry of Education as an example of "Islamist separatism", anyone who wears a headscarf (again, literally - France has twice complained to the EU for using an image of a woman in a headscarf on publicity materials as promoting Islamism) or just vanilla Anglo-Saxon style multi-culturalism.

To me it just has worrying echoes of Judeo-Bolshevism - especially given the wider global context of Islamophobia with Trump, Modi and Xi. I think Macron's Education Minister has set up a thinktank to monitor universities for "Islamo-leftism" and also try to police the boundaries of what is academic inquiry and what is activism and opinion. Being close to America I'm sure you can hear the echoes. Having said all that - of all the candidates who can get to the second round Macron is miles ahead of any of the others and on some other subjects (Europe, the economy) genuinely impressive.

[Josquius]

So beyond Galloway style we both hate Israel-friends? Crap and into full on lunacy then.

[Razgovory]

To me it just has worrying echoes of Judeo-Bolshevism - especially given the wider global context of Islamophobia with Trump, Modi and Xi. I think Macron's Education Minister has set up a thinktank to monitor universities for "Islamo-leftism" and also try to police the boundaries of what is academic inquiry and what is activism and opinion. Being close to America I'm sure you can hear the echoes. Having said all that - of all the candidates who can get to the second round Macron is miles ahead of any of the others and on some other subjects (Europe, the economy) genuinely impressive.

Sounds like Great Replacement BS.

[Sheilbh]

Sounds like Great Replacement BS.

"Great Replacement" as a theory started in France, but has now made inroads into the mainstream right. Pecresse has used the phrase as well as Zemmour: "in ten years time [...] will we be a sovereign nation, a U.S. satellite or a Chinese trading post? Will we be unified or divided? Nothing is written, whether it's loss of economic status, or the Great Replacement." She also had the line about the "French of the heart" against "paper Frenchmen" (again an echo of anti-semitic slurs in the 19th and early 20th century).

In one worrying poll I saw about 60% either certainly or probably thought it was happening in France.

Ironically although some in Le Pen's party have embraced, I think she's explicitly said it's a conspiracy theory.

[Duque de Bragança]

Follow up question - what is a pro-Islamist/Muslim stance in the context of French politics?  That seems to be the thing that determines the definition - although I am still not sure where the "leftist" adjective fits in?

Mélenchon only has 2 Trots to his left in this election, and they are far from their heydays (4-5% each now more like 1-2%). One of the trotskyite party started the islamo-leftist trend but it backfired spectacularly, the other is more "orthodox" (no pun intended) in their trotskyism so they stay marginal.
Historically, the French left has always been very suspicious of religion influence if not outright anticlerical. Nowadays, anticlericalism only seems to work against Catholics and Protestants, sometimes, the latter being far fewer (tainted by a possible mix-up with US-style evangelical protestants).
Mélenchon follows perfectly that trend. There are exceptions, such as Charlie Hebdo, of course.
Also, previously assimilation was a left-wing position, deemed progressice since open to all, nowadays the post-modern left is no longer for it since it goes against multiculturalism in general and Islam in particular.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Sounds like Great Replacement BS.

it's not because it's not done on purpuse that a "great replacement" doesn't take place. Ask the american natives or the australian aborinigals about it. They got replaced into marginality.

Simple fact is that the populations of the western european countries are still rising, but that the aboriginals of those countries haven't been getting sufficient children to be above or on replacement levels in decades. It is equally so that the big generations (babyboomers and before) are now dying off. Not that fast but the speed will increase.
Then it's logical to conclude that the population increase is mainly done by migration. Immigrants are by their very definition not aboriginals. Once a majority of the inhabitants are no longer of aboriginal stock you can say the replacement is complete.

If your lucky the newcomers assimilate easily, or even a bit less easily, but they still assimilate. If you're unlucky you get large communities of cultures that have zero desire to fit in, and are potentially outright hostile to the receiving society.

And it's not because this has happened all over the world, all throughout history, that you can tell the people being replaced that they have to like it or support it.

[Valmy]

it's not because it's not done on purpuse that a "great replacement" doesn't take place. Ask the american natives or the australian aborinigals about it. They got replaced into marginality.

Simple fact is that the populations of the western european countries are still rising, but that the aboriginals of those countries haven't been getting sufficient children to be above or on replacement levels in decades. It is equally so that the big generations (babyboomers and before) are now dying off. Not that fast but the speed will increase.
Then it's logical to conclude that the population increase is mainly done by migration. Immigrants are by their very definition not aboriginals. Once a majority of the inhabitants are no longer of aboriginal stock you can say the replacement is complete.

If your lucky the newcomers assimilate easily, or even a bit less easily, but they still assimilate. If you're unlucky you get large communities of cultures that have zero desire to fit in, and are potentially outright hostile to the receiving society.

And it's not because this has happened all over the world, all throughout history, that you can tell the people being replaced that they have to like it or support it.

I mean it could be worse. In Eastern Europe not only are they not replacing themselves, the kids are moving west.

But even the migrant thing is only a temporary solution. Birth rates are falling rapidly everywhere.

But if we were moving to North America and living among the indigenous nations I bet they wouldn't have been replaced into marginality. They were moved by force onto the margins even when they were still the majority.

[Zoupa]

The replacement BS theory has been debunked 1000 times. The fact that Pecresse uses it as a dog whistle was to be predicted as she's not relevant.

I think it's time to do away with the French presidential system and have a 6th Republic.

[Razgovory]

Sounds like Great Replacement BS.

it's not because it's not done on purpuse that a "great replacement" doesn't take place. Ask the american natives or the australian aborinigals about it. They got replaced into marginality.

Simple fact is that the populations of the western european countries are still rising, but that the aboriginals of those countries haven't been getting sufficient children to be above or on replacement levels in decades. It is equally so that the big generations (babyboomers and before) are now dying off. Not that fast but the speed will increase.
Then it's logical to conclude that the population increase is mainly done by migration. Immigrants are by their very definition not aboriginals. Once a majority of the inhabitants are no longer of aboriginal stock you can say the replacement is complete.

If your lucky the newcomers assimilate easily, or even a bit less easily, but they still assimilate. If you're unlucky you get large communities of cultures that have zero desire to fit in, and are potentially outright hostile to the receiving society.

And it's not because this has happened all over the world, all throughout history, that you can tell the people being replaced that they have to like it or support it.

The indigenous peoples of Americas didn't have immigrants.  They didn't even have states.  They were simply invaded.  So that's a false analogy.  In the US, we've had people claim that immigrants would replace everyone for 200 years.  Still hasn't happened.

[Josquius]

The native American analogy for modern immigration is broken on so many levels.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

and yet the natives still got replaced. It's irrelevant in what manner it happened as migration does not have to happen peacefully.
replacement is replacement.

[Josquius]

and yet the natives still got replaced. It's irrelevant in what manner it happened as migration does not have to happen peacefully.
replacement is replacement.

And when Henry VIII divorced two of his wives he chopped off their heads. Execution is execution.
It'd be insanity to suggest this is a normal part of divorce proceedings.

Very few people in Europe are entirely 'indigenous'. People have been moving around and mixing since there was multiple groups of people to move around and mix. Gauls, Romans, Franks, Norse, French.... all different yet all the same.

[crazy canuck]

Replacement is such an odd concept. We all get replaced by the generations that come after us.

[Sheilbh]

It looks like it'll be Macron-Le Pen for sure, though Melenchon is surging so there's someone on the left at least.

In part, perhaps because Zemmour has fully ripped off the mask with his line on "remigration" (deportation) - also "Generation Z" is one of the most accidentally unfortunate political branding I can think of

Also, however, I suspect the shift to cost of living is something that more naturally fits Melenchon and Le Pen than Zemmour. Both are historically very warm towards Putin too which adds another element.

But with Le Pen starting to surge, attention focusing on cost of living/inflation and likely low turnout/reported high levels of abstentions from the left, the second round polling is a lot tighter than I'd like (poll of polls is still floating around 45/55):


It's still very likely that Macron will win, but it feels like we're increasingly moving towards "accidents can happen" territory as in 2016. I think one particular challenge for Macron is that if issues focus on cost of living/inflation, which seems likely over the next month, in the past he's not been great at responding to concerns on those issues or with those voters. It feels like that needs to be his focus for the next four weeks.

[Duque de Bragança]

It looks like it'll be Macron-Le Pen for sure, though Melenchon is surging so there's someone on the left at least.

In part, perhaps because Zemmour has fully ripped off the mask with his line on "remigration" (deportation) - also "Generation Z" is one of the most accidentally unfortunate political branding I can think of

False friend, déportation in French does not have the same meaning as in English 
Expulsion is perfectly legal in French law, though it has been restricted, which results in more crimes, up to, but not just terrorism.

OTOH, the correct word would be réémigration, something pointed out by people way more on the right than him (coucou Henry de Lesquen !).

Plus Génération Z is more reminiscent of Zorro (not the original Portuguese meaning) than anything else for Zemmour's Generation.

The problem for Zemmour is his (former?) putinolatry, shared by Mélenchon and Marine, but then Marine quickly repudiated (seemingly) while this is not a problem for Mélenchon.
It really broke his campaign.

Anglos seeing French politics and culture through a very limited grasp of French.   
Meanwhile, mainstream media not on the right, so everything but le Figaro, report and praise Macron's nervous attempt at humour claiming that Zemmour is handicapped by being deaf, but object when Zemmour did the same to the leftist apparatchik Mélenchon. 

One last less serious bad news for Zemmour :

since Algeria missed the qualification for the Wahhabi World Cup, no Algerian "celebrations" in French streets i.e riots or burned cars, just before the elections.
Usually, any victory meant trouble, sometimes even defeats, be it in Barbès-Rochechouart (strong maghrebi presence in this Parisian neighborhood) or even the Champs-Élysées, the official site for football celebrations by fans in Paris, among other things. For some reason, there is always trouble when the Algerian football team is involved.
Same goes for Marseille and other cities.