Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Duque de Bragança]

Aside from all that - just returning to my main point yesterday that it looks likely Le Pen will be in the second round again. I'm still very confident that in that scenario, Macron will win (same against Zemmour or Melenchon if they got through). But I think we are in pretty dodgy/dangerous territory in the polling - especially if turn-out is low:

Interesting to see more Mélenchon voters switching more to Le Pen than to Jupiter. Abstention and blank votes higher, however.

BFMTV is biased for Macron, by the way.
17% switching from Zemmour to Macron is stil too high to make any sense. No pro-Zemmour I know contemplates it. Some are not too fond of Le Pen but Macron is a big no-no.

I am less confident than I was before and I feel like cost of living/inflation is something that Macron will be particularly vulnerable on - and that Le Pen can particularly take advantage of.

Narrower win for sure unless Le Pen blunders again in the debate. Macron will have to do some real campaigning at last.

[viper37]

Let's say it's Le Pen vs Macron for the 2nd round.

Who would you vote for Duque?

Ideally, there would be other choices. Last time, it was a blank vote.

Et donc cette fois ci?

Pourquoi c'est si dur de te tirer les vers du nez? C'est une question assez simple...

Tout simplement parce que nous ne sommes pas encore au second tour, et que le vote est censé être secret.

Riiiiiiiiiiight. Donc va pour les fachos alors.

C'est plus la peine de se cacher tu sais. Vous êtes 45% apparemment. Assumez.

Là, c'est toi qui est de mauvaise foi.

Je connais Duque depuis des années, je peux t'assurer qu'il n'est pas facho.  Anti-clérical, certes, et c'est l'Islam politique qui est le plus militant présentement, alors sa position est facilement assimilable à d'autres plus extrêmes.

[alfred russel]

Aside from all that - just returning to my main point yesterday that it looks likely Le Pen will be in the second round again. I'm still very confident that in that scenario, Macron will win (same against Zemmour or Melenchon if they got through). But I think we are in pretty dodgy/dangerous territory in the polling - especially if turn-out is low:

The barbarians are clearly at the gates. The Elabe poll just out has Macron up just 5 points over LePen in a run off. The top 4 in the first round are likely to be Macron, Zemmour, Melenchon, and LePen. Only Macron is conventional. Macron will probably win but western voters are showing an increasing tendency toward self harm.

[Zoupa]

Let's say it's Le Pen vs Macron for the 2nd round.

Who would you vote for Duque?

Ideally, there would be other choices. Last time, it was a blank vote.

Et donc cette fois ci?

Pourquoi c'est si dur de te tirer les vers du nez? C'est une question assez simple...

Tout simplement parce que nous ne sommes pas encore au second tour, et que le vote est censé être secret.

Riiiiiiiiiiight. Donc va pour les fachos alors.

C'est plus la peine de se cacher tu sais. Vous êtes 45% apparemment. Assumez.

Là, c'est toi qui est de mauvaise foi.

Je connais Duque depuis des années, je peux t'assurer qu'il n'est pas facho.  Anti-clérical, certes, et c'est l'Islam politique qui est le plus militant présentement, alors sa position est facilement assimilable à d'autres plus extrêmes.

The left massively mobilized and voted for Chirac in 2002. Le Pen got no votes from us.

I see that when the shoe is on the other foot, about half of the right, centre-right or what have you, will vote for Le Pen this time around.

A blank vote is just as bad, the very definition of a fucking edge lord. When there's a nazi on the ballot, you get off your ass, make the effort to actually go vote, and pick the other guy.

[Sheilbh]

The barbarians are clearly at the gates. The Elabe poll just out has Macron up just 5 points over LePen in a run off. The top 4 in the first round are likely to be Macron, Zemmour, Melenchon, and LePen. Only Macron is conventional. Macron will probably win but western voters are showing an increasing tendency toward self harm.

Yeah - looking at the poll of polls I think that over 50% of votes are now likely to go to "anti-system" parties v, say, Macron, Pecresse, PS, Jadot. That should be a concern.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/

Based on the breakdown I posted earlier if Le Pen were to win it looks likely that it would be because of red-brown votes from the far-left. If she doesn't win, which is more likely, the polling has her between the low and high forties which is a world away from the 35% or so she got in 2017 - again that should be a concern.

And obviously there's similar voting trends/issues in Italy - again I think "anti-system" parties are over 50% (fortunately they don't all get along).

[Duque de Bragança]

If you are that interested, that will be later, such as tomorrow probably. I'm done for the night.

I am interested. Have a good night

I have started it but it gets longer and longer. Thinking to open another thread to not hijack this one or detailing it whenever it is relevant rather than going through a long and tedious list.

[Jacob]

If you are that interested, that will be later, such as tomorrow probably. I'm done for the night.

I am interested. Have a good night

I have started it but it gets longer and longer. Thinking to open another thread to not hijack this one or detailing it whenever it is relevant rather than going through a long and tedious list.

Whatever works. I'm still interested

[Valmy]

Is this mostly driven by anti-immigration stuff? Is there some big revolutionary societal organization scheme Le Pen is pitching?

[Sheilbh]

Is this mostly driven by anti-immigration stuff? Is there some big revolutionary societal organization scheme Le Pen is pitching?

Interested to see French takes.

My impression from outside is that on immigration Le Pen has been mainstreamed. Zemmour is the more extreme candidate, the Pecresse has also picked up the "great replacement" - the polling of the French on the "great replacement" is, frankly, terrifying. Le Pen criticises some of Zemmour's stuff as "anti-Republican" and says the "great replacement" is a conspiracy theory. At the same time you've had - to Le Pen's visible shock - Macron's interior minister accuse her of being soft on Islam in comparison with Macron. So on all sides there's been decisions that collectively make Le Pen look relatively "moderate" on immigration - I think that probably does help her and Zemmour especially is probably a gateway drug for people who haven't previously voted for Le Pen.

Separately she's spent years moving left on economics and I think there's an accident of timing point. If the central banks are right in their projections, this election will happen just as inflation peaks. I think the candidates who are able to pretty convincingly talk about cost of living are probably Le Pen and Melenchon. In addition I think it's a really tough issue for Macron to talk about.

[Duque de Bragança]

I would not worry too much about Pécresse going full Zemmour if I were you. Pure electoral move.
Low credibility as reflected in polls.

Darmanin's accusation is a laughably bad PR stunt. Let me remind you that Macron's government broadened family regrouping and signed the Marrakesh pact. Macron is pro full immigration (big business candidate as said by Bayrou before joining him) he just happens to pretend otherwise for the elections since going for full immigration is not desired by a majority of French people.

As for Marine going left on economics, this has been true for a while and that's a difference with Zemmour stays on a more conservative but in thef French style i.e no thatcherism, so colbertism is fine meaning to the left of Macron's vision of economy.
I don't think her politic agenda on economics is as to the left as it was in 2017 when it was very close to Mélenchon's and Philippot was around, but yes talking convincingly of the cost of living
should not be too difficult for her.

[alfred russel]

The indigenous peoples of Americas didn't have immigrants.  They didn't even have states.  They were simply invaded.  So that's a false analogy.  In the US, we've had people claim that immigrants would replace everyone for 200 years.  Still hasn't happened.

Is that true? I'm mostly a mix of italian, irish and german...grew up catholic. I think catholicism is the plurality religion in the US. from the perspective of americans in the 1820s, if they saw the religious, cultural, and demographic makeup of america today some of them would definitely believe htey were replaced.

[Sheilbh]

The polling on the second round matters more - but the first round looks concerning too (especially given how pro-Putin Melenchon and Le Pen are):


As I said in the Hungarian politics thread, I think Orban's found an answer for the war for Putin-sympathising politicians in Europe: position themselves as the "peace" candidate (v "pro-war" candidates/leaders sending weapons and increasing sanctions) and focus on the cost of living. I suspect that would work for Melenchon or Le Pen.

Obviously Macron is still far more likely to win, but as I say this feels more and more like it's in the space where accidents can happen.

[Duque de Bragança]

You will be happy to know that Mélenchon has postponed the exit of NATO in his political agenda, due to the war, so until peace is back.

Marine and Zemmmour are for leaving NATO's military structure, as per De Gaulle.

[Sheilbh]

And on the second round polling:


I think a lot here depends on turn-out and, particularly, if Melenchon's voters decide to abstain

[Jacob]

Maybe Putin just have to make it to a Le Pen win rather than hold on for Trump to turn it around?