Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Duque de Bragança]

https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/presidentielle-2022-forte-abstention-attendue-pour-le-premier-tour-selon-un-sondage-20220407

Abstention predicted to be high. Usually, Presidential elections have very high voting rates.

[Sheilbh]

And there we are. Obviously pre-first round second round polls are dodgy and likely to change, but the first poll with Le Pen in the lead:


Also really striking that Pecresse of the mainstream right does worse v Macron than Le Pen, Zemmour or Melenchon. It really demonstrates the extent to which French politics have re-aligned (which I think is happening across developed democracies) from a left/right alignment to a system/anti-system alignment.

[Josquius]

Projecting US/UK issues or trends makes for very odd analyses of French politics.

La jeunesse emmerde le Front national is so 80s, as in dated, sadly or not.

https://youtu.be/CuZB9hOQ0DQ

I dunno, I think it's interesting.
French people aren't THAT alien, and of the countries of Europe they have the most similar system (read :undemocratic). In many ways France is closer to the UK or even US than the two are to each other. We all share a planet.
Despite the us and UK being so different a lot of the same social and economic problems at work have brought similar negative results.
You'd logically expect many of the same social and economic trends to be working on France for similar outcomes. But they aren't. Its curious.

[alfred russel]

I dunno, I think it's interesting.
French people aren't THAT alien, and of the countries of Europe they have the most similar system (read :undemocratic). In many ways France is closer to the UK or even US than the two are to each other. We all share a planet.
Despite the us and UK being so different a lot of the same social and economic problems at work have brought similar negative results.
You'd logically expect many of the same social and economic trends to be working on France for similar outcomes. But they aren't. Its curious.

Totally agree. The world has become a small place. People talk funny in europe but I barely consider travel to western europe to be foreign travel.

If this really turns out to be Le Pen's moment, it makes me wonder if FirebladeLePen will be drinking champagne or moonshine or whatever, whereever he is.

[Zoupa]

French people are so fucking retarded they're able to elect LePen but would never give her a majority in the parlement.

Kinda glad I have 2 passports.

[Duque de Bragança]

French people are so fucking retarded they're able to elect LePen but would never give her a majority in the parlement.

Yeah, right, let's give a majority to Marine in the Assemblée Nationale. Her last proposal was a government of national unity (Zemmour PM ?), knowing perfectly there is no chance in hell she gets a majority in legislative elections.

And leftist self-hatred as a bonus. 

[Zoupa]

If people want to vote for her as President, why won't they vote for her deputies? Makes no sense to me.

And you can call it lefty self hate if you want. Once half your population is ready to vote for LePen, the statement "French people are fucking stupid" is pretty accurate.

We've seen Trump, we've seen Brexit, we've seen Putin. Let's vote in the dumb bitch who loves all three. 

[Duque de Bragança]

If people want to vote for her as President, why won't they vote for her deputies? Makes no sense to me.

Get rid of Macron, without putting her in charge and putting an end to the Mitterrand maneuver to rule with a minority of the electorate by dividing the right.

And you can call it lefty self hate if you want. Once half your population is ready to vote for LePen, the statement "French people are fucking stupid" is pretty accurate.

We've seen Trump, we've seen Brexit, we've seen Putin. Let's vote in the dumb bitch who loves all three. 

Apples and oranges.
Being pro-Brexit to get rid of the double-dealing and self-hurting (this time) Brits, is hardly far-right,  many did it over here, with Schadenfreude playing a part from left to right.

As for Putin, it's so toxic that the 3 poutinolâtres, including the worst one, the leftist Mélenchon, had to change their stance (sincerity is another matter I'll grant you that). Marine was the most convincing at the U-turn, that's all. Judging by the polls. Mélenchon does not seem to have suffered from his putinolatry, unlike Zemmour.

Trump is hardly a factor over here. Trumpism and US "leftwing" identity politics, by the way, are both despised by the general population so it's a losing proposition to support them openly.

[Sheilbh]

No other polling showing Le Pen in the lead but it's tightening across pollsters and it doesn't look impossible that she might win the first round - which would send the race into a spin I think.

There's been footage of her with crowds today and it reminds me a little of Corbyn in 2017 - it's very clear she has the momentum right now.

By contrast I'm not sure with the messaging that Macron's campaign seems to be doing which is basically "vote Le Pen, get Putin". I'm just generally (after Brexit and maybe after Trump a bit too) wary of fear as a message from an incumbent - I'm not sure it's effective. If all elections ultimately boil down to more of the same v time for a change, I think fear tends to play more into the change candidate's hands - I know nothing but I feel like they need to be telling a positive story (and there is one) of why Macron/more of the same.

[Duque de Bragança]

Winning the first round would be spectacular for her but does not mean winning the run-off.

Macron is trying to switch from "vote for me or you will get the extreme right" to "vote for me or you will get the extremes".

As for the momentum, Zemmour claims Marine dreams or fantasizes of an alliance with Mélenchon's mythical sovereignist wing, some formerly at the PS, such as Montebourg. 
Without acknowledging that Mélenchon is too far out in islamo-leftism, according to him, again.

Le candidat Reconquête! Éric Zemmour a pointé du doigt aujourd'hui le «fantasme absolu» selon lui de Marine Le Pen de «s'allier avec Jean-Luc Mélenchon l'islamo-gauchiste».

» LIRE AUSSI - Marine Le Pen: «Je suis prête à gouverner»

Le candidat d'extrême droite réagissait sur CNews aux propos de la candidate RN qui a indiqué jeudi ne pas exclure, si elle était élue, la participation à son «gouvernement d'union nationale» de responsables politiques venus «de la gauche chevènementiste, c'est-à-dire d'une gauche souverainiste, d'une gauche qui défend la réindustrialisation, la défense de nos grandes industries». Y compris le candidat LFI Jean-Luc Mélenchon? «Probablement pas», avait-elle répondu.

Mais pour Éric Zemmour, «en vérité, Marine Le Pen rêve de s'allier à Jean-Luc Mélenchon. C'est son fantasme absolu, je vous le dis, elle veut l'alliance avec les souverainistes de gauche, elle ne connaît pas la droite et la gauche sauf quand il s'agit de s'allier avec la gauche», a-t-il défendu.

Ainsi selon lui, la candidate RN en réalité «appelle à voter pour elle Arnaud Montebourg», l'ancien ministre socialiste chantre de la «Remontada» de la France, un temps candidat à la présidentielle avant de jeter l'éponge en janvier. Une partie de son équipe de campagne a depuis rallié la candidate socialiste Anne Hidalgo. Si Marine Le Pen «veut» aussi «mes électeurs, mes électeurs sont des gens de droite qui veulent sauver la droite, pas des gens qui veulent s'allier avec Jean-Luc Mélenchon l'islamo-gauchiste», a poursuivi le candidat.

https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/direct-presidentielle-2022-le-pen-fantasmerait-d-une-alliance-avec-melenchon-selon-zemmour-20220408

[Sheilbh]

Last poll before the first round on Sunday - again, 2016 flashbacks:

Loïc Besson
@loicbesson
Dernier sondage Elabe @BFMTV
 
L'écart se réduit franchement entre Emmanuel Macron et Marine Le Pen.
1er tour :
Macron : 26% (-2)
Le Pen : 25% (+2)

2nd tour :
Macron : 51% (-2)
Le Pen : 49% (+2)

[alfred russel]

No other polling showing Le Pen in the lead but it's tightening across pollsters and it doesn't look impossible that she might win the first round - which would send the race into a spin I think.

I think she is better off finishing 2nd in the first round. If she wins, she is the front runner and gets the front runner treatment, and loses the insurgent candidate allure.

[Sheilbh]

I think that's probably right - I hope whatever happens in round one is enough to focus minds and get people to turn out, even if it's for a candidate they're not hugely keen on.

Breakdown in the last YouGov poll in France - again from a US/UK perspective this is real through the looking glass stuff that the boomers are the good guys and we're all relying on them

Macron: 51%
Le Pen: 49%

By age
18-24: Macron 44%, Le Pen 56%
25-34: Macron 47%, Le Pen 53%
35-44: Macron 47%, Le Pen 53%
45-54: Macron 49%, Le Pen 51%
55+: Macron 55%, Le Pen 45%

[alfred russel]

Maybe the older people are just more prone to associate her with her more deplorable father.

[Zoupa]

If people want to vote for her as President, why won't they vote for her deputies? Makes no sense to me.

Get rid of Macron, without putting her in charge and putting an end to the Mitterrand maneuver to rule with a minority of the electorate by dividing the right.

Except the "right" should be divided. There's supposed to be a firewall between democratic forces and fascist ones. When the right is so pissed to be out of power than to be ready to vote for LePen, there is no "right" anymore, just a bunch of fascists.

And you can call it lefty self hate if you want. Once half your population is ready to vote for LePen, the statement "French people are fucking stupid" is pretty accurate.

We've seen Trump, we've seen Brexit, we've seen Putin. Let's vote in the dumb bitch who loves all three. 

Apples and oranges.
Being pro-Brexit to get rid of the double-dealing and self-hurting (this time) Brits, is hardly far-right,  many did it over here, with Schadenfreude playing a part from left to right.

As for Putin, it's so toxic that the 3 poutinolâtres, including the worst one, the leftist Mélenchon, had to change their stance (sincerity is another matter I'll grant you that). Marine was the most convincing at the U-turn, that's all. Judging by the polls. Mélenchon does not seem to have suffered from his putinolatry, unlike Zemmour.

Trump is hardly a factor over here. Trumpism and US "leftwing" identity politics, by the way, are both despised by the general population so it's a losing proposition to support them openly.

I meant she wants a Frexit, even after seeing the consequences on Britain.

She will copy-paste Orban's stance on Russia if elected.

She is just as ignorant and vile as Trump was/is, and sees those as qualities.

I struggle to see why you keep defending her.

Hence my conclusion: Marine LePen is stupid and evil, and every French person not voting against her is stupid and evil. CQFD.