Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Sheilbh]

Also Zemmour did best with out of touch, metropolitan fascist elites in Paris-XVI, while Le Pen's far-right style is more rural, small towns and villages

[Duque de Bragança]

Didn't the PS win the regional elections last year? In regional elections they're still the force - PS and LR between them got 60% of the vote, but then at a national, presidential level they're below 7%.

Nope, they were more or less tied with LR, with the capital region of Paris/Île-de-France (pun intended) going for Pécresse.
Obviously, that's way better than what they got now so it may pass as a victory but not one over LR.
RN was all hyped up but did not live to expectations, however.

That's exactly what I said

Nope, you did not mention the proportional representation hurting RN and did not mention European elections.

[Duque de Bragança]

Also Zemmour did best with out of touch, metropolitan fascist elites in Paris-XVI, while Le Pen's far-right style is more rural, small towns and villages

Fascist elites in Paris XVI ?! They are as conformist bourgeois as they come, so it's Macron all the way for them (46% for him, Zemmour distant second at 17.48 Pécresse not too far behind as third, above Marine).

Even Mélenchon was above Marine among your so-called out of touch metropolitan elite (that's Macron voters actually) fascist is wrong for both, despite Macron having authoritarian tendencies (e.g yellow vests repression and anti-terrorism laws made permanent) and Marine being at the helm of a party traditionally associated with authoritarianism.

Zemmour and Marine are also popular in the periurban areas (one area you significantly forgot or ignored) and yes rural, small tons and villages.
Zemmors is more like old-school RPR, vintage 1990.

PS: the parish with the integrist catholics is not in Paris XVI. There is a Léopold II street (yes that Belgian king) but that's all. The most expensive arrondissement has been Paris VII (Eiffel Tower) for a long while now.

[Sheilbh]

Nope, they were more or less tied with LR, with the capital region of Paris/Île-de-France (pun intended) going for Pécresse.
Obviously, that's way better than what they got now so it may pass as a victory but not one over LR.
RN was all hyped up but did not live to expectations, however.

They won more regions than LR. And I don't fully understand how you can go from they're dead outside of Paris, to this point.

But also it's just not relevant to my point which is that the PS got less than 7% of the vote in 2017, they got under 2% now - in 2021 they won 30% of the vote and most regions and regional elections. The LR have collapsed to under 5% of the vote tonight - in 2021 they also won about 30% of the vote. These two traditional institutional parties that have been wiped out utterly in presidential elections over the last two, are still the dominant forces winning, between them, over 60% of the vote at regional elections. 

My point is there are two models of democracy at different levels in France. One is still based on traditional party infrastructure, with its bureaucracy and activists and memberships etc. One is based on, above all, media and the individual leader inspiring temporary activists that has become increasingly untethered from traditional party structures in recent years. At some point I suspect those two models will collide or clash.

Nope, you did not mention the proportional representation hurting RN and did not mention European elections.

Again my point was Macron and Melenchon don't have traditional party structures. The RN do but it's a very small party (as you said it is more of a traditional, normal party). It is interesting that those are the forces doing well in national elections without traditional mass party politics but then striking that they don't do great at the regional level when the party infrastructure of activists etc seems to still matter more.

I don't really see how that connects at all to the voting system which all parties operate in and which shapes the way politics works or European elections (often used to protest vote/kick the incumbent).

Fascist elites in Paris XVI ?! They are as conformist bourgeois as they come, so it's Macron all the way for them (46% for him, Zemmour distant second at 17.48 Pécresse not too far behind as third, above Marine).

Even Mélenchon was above Marine among your so-called out of touch metropolitan elite (that's Macron voters) fascist is wrong for both, despite Macron having authoritarian tendencies (yellow vests anti-terrorism laws made permanent) and Marine being at the helm of a party traditionally associated with authoritarianism.

Yeah it's a joke based on the far right trope of out of touch metropolitan liberal elites v authentic/real voters - pointing out that those Zemmour did comparatively well in those areas v Le Pen. So Zemmour voters are the out of touch, metropolitan fascist elites, while Le Pen's are the salt of the earth, authentic far right.

[Duque de Bragança]

They won more regions than LR. And I don't fully understand how you can go from they're dead outside of Paris, to this point.

 
Jacobinist France means one region weights more than most. Try to compare how many seats in the Assemblée Nationale or Sénat (the other regional election) they have vs LR. Though as I said, LR might join soon.
I guess it will depend on the out of outch liberal fascist elites of Paris XVI willing to give carte blanche/blanc-seing to Jupiter II.

But also it's just not relevant to my point which is that the PS got less than 7% of the vote in 2017, they got under 2% now - in 2021 they won 30% of the vote and most regions and regional elections. The LR have collapsed to under 5% of the vote tonight - in 2021 they also won about 30% of the vote. These two traditional institutional parties that have been wiped out utterly in presidential elections over the last two, are still the dominant forces winning, between them, over 60% of the vote at regional elections. 

A former PS member got elected as president in 2017, however. He even claimed to be socialist at a time, and claims to be a progressive despite being very much to the right, on economics (French-style not US).

A rise comparable to one described in a Flanby book Un président ne devrait pas dire ça
https://livre.fnac.com/a9931247/Gerard-Davet-Un-president-ne-devrait-pas-dire-ca

My point is there are two models of democracy at different levels in France. One is still based on traditional party infrastructure, with its bureaucracy and activists and memberships etc. One is based on, above all, media and the individual leader inspiring temporary activists that has become increasingly untethered from traditional party structures in recent years. At some point I suspect those two models will collide or clash.

Clash or grand remplacement ? One supported and helped by Zemmour. 
I still object to the RN being described as something other than a traditional party, despite Marine's rebrandings.
As for Macro's rump party, yes, you are spot on.

Again my point was Macron and Melenchon don't have traditional party structures. The RN do but it's a very small party (as you said it is more of a traditional, normal party). It is interesting that those are the forces doing well in national elections without traditional mass party politics but then striking that they don't do great at the regional level when the party infrastructure of activists etc seems to still matter more.

If you think a copycat structure of Die Linke in Germany is not traditional these days, fine. Don't expect people to agree though. Mélenchon is pretty good at campaigning  old-school style. PS apparatchik training shows but he is a better orator than Macro to give an example. Both are demagogs but Mélenchon is better at that game. 

I don't really see how that connects at all to the voting system which all parties operate in and which shapes the way politics works or European elections (often used to protest vote/kick the incumbent).

Different elections have different systems and presidential elections can also be used to protest vote. Le Pen father specialty once.
Not to mention election systems can be altered if need be cf. Mitterand in 1986 granting proportional representation to avoid a total victory of the right by using the FN to mitigate losses and divide it.

Yeah it's a joke based on the far right trope of out of touch metropolitan liberal elites v authentic/real voters - pointing out that those Zemmour did comparatively well in those areas v Le Pen. So Zemmour voters are the out of touch, metropolitan fascist elites, while Le Pen's are the salt of the earth, authentic far right.

Joke does not work for the French political landscape with Zemmour accusing Marine of left-leaning with Mélenchon. Yes, that's a bit far-fetched but the joke is there. 
It felt like Zemmour knew he was not going to make it to the run-off, so panic mode but that's my opinion.

Incidentally, the sympathetic salt of the eath, authentic countryside candidate was Lasalle, accused by some in the bobo left of being a crypto-rightist/conspiracy theory peddler etc.
Originally, a Bayrou comrade.

[Admiral Yi]

So Melenchon is a lefty, right?  And he and Macron are together taking about 60-65% of the polls, right? 

So how is it possible that Macron and Le Pen are neck and neck in head to head polls?  Are a chunk of Melenchon voters planning on voting for Le Pen in the run-off, a la Bernie brothers?

[The Larch]

So Melenchon is a lefty, right?  And he and Macron are together taking about 60-65% of the polls, right? 

So how is it possible that Macron and Le Pen are neck and neck in head to head polls?  Are a chunk of Melenchon voters planning on voting for Le Pen in the run-off, a la Bernie brothers?

30% of Melenchon voters intended to vote for Le Pen in the 2nd round, I think I read somewhere. That's why Melenchon, rather than asking his voters to go for Macron in the 2nd round, asked them not to vote for Le Pen.

[Admiral Yi]

Dumbasses

[Duque de Bragança]

Le Figaro has an article about it:

https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/je-ne-veux-pas-de-macron-cinq-ans-de-plus-ces-insoumis-qui-voteront-le-pen-au-second-tour-de-la-presidentielle-20220411

Says 25% not 30 %.

Macron is still the favorite for now with 54 vs 46.

[Sheilbh]

So Melenchon is a lefty, right?  And he and Macron are together taking about 60-65% of the polls, right? 

So how is it possible that Macron and Le Pen are neck and neck in head to head polls?  Are a chunk of Melenchon voters planning on voting for Le Pen in the run-off, a la Bernie brothers?

I think there's two sides to it: system v anti-system and attitudes on the French left.

In France - and I think France and Italy are a little ahead of the European trend on this - traditional 20th century left v right politics is dead. It's been replaced by attitudes to the political system (with maybe an element of populism v technocracy to go - though almost all populists or technocrats look a lot like the other). Macron as the incumbent represents and leads that system, while Le Pen and Melenchon (and their voters) both explicitly want it overthrown - Melenchon's big campaign is for a VI Republic. Of course the irony here is that Macron started as an anti-system candidate - arguing that France needed to move past the sterile left v right debates and its old party systems. He's arguably the most successful anti-system politician in the world given the state of France's traditional, 20th century left and right parties. I think that explains the cross-overs - the everything needs shaking up instinct.

The other side is the state of the French left. It is difficult to overstate how much they loath Macron and how deep that loathing is. I don't hink there is anyone in France who would frame Macron as being on the left any more or linking his vote to Melenchon's in that way - even foreign correspondents will now right that he is either seen as or almost a centre-right President. I think the fact that he blew up their side to achieve his glory probably also stings and they are sick of holding their nose to vote - which is what's behind the probably bigger issue of abstention.

Plus if you look at the constellation of issues in this election for a Melenchon voter: "peace v militarism" in supporting Ukraine and cost of living, then there is a stronger link to Le Pen's campaign highlights than Macron's. Additionaly over the last five years Macron has tried to de-fang Le Pen on issues of immigration and Islam with his campaign against "Islamoleftism", his thinktank against "woke" or his Interior Minister saying Le Pen is too soft on Islam. Then in this campaign you've had Zemmour far beyond Le Pen in rhetoric and both him and Pecresse talking about the "great replacement" - which Le Pen has dismissed as a conspiracy theory. The combination of Macron's political choices in the last five years and this campaign have actually made Le Pen seem more of a moderate/acceptable option and removed the focus from identity, Islam and immigration which is probably where she is still the most toxic for Melenchon supporters.

Given this was the situation in 2017, I'd be surprised if more Melenchon voters swing behind Macron than last time. As it looks like they're less likely to abstain - that leaves us with more likely swinging behind Le Pen:

30% of Melenchon voters intended to vote for Le Pen in the 2nd round, I think I read somewhere. That's why Melenchon, rather than asking his voters to go for Macron in the 2nd round, asked them not to vote for Le Pen.

He did the same in 2017 - it's because Melenchon will refuse to endorse Macron - he hates Macron. But will say not one vote to Le Pen. Which is a little different than go and vote for Macron.

Edit: And in a way that system v anti-system has its own urban/rural divide. In cities if you want to vote against the city you go for Melenchon, everywhere else Le Pen/Zemmour.

[Admiral Yi]

@Shelf:  that sounds almost exactly like the Bernie Bros, so I repeat: dumbasses.

An infantile belief in fighting "the system" combined with a childish grudge.

[Sheilbh]

@Shelf:  that sounds almost exactly like the Bernie Bros, so I repeat: dumbasses.

An infantile belief in fighting "the system" combined with a childish grudge.

Well except Bernie Bros didn't vote for Trump any more than PUMAs stayed at home. It's just a Democratic moral panic they have every four years.

And you might not like it but I think it's probably the future of European politics - this politics of style system/anti-system or populism/technocracy however you want to frame it. We may regret removing the left v right ideological content and institutions from politics.

Edit: Or, arguably, the future's central/east European post-ideological politics: billionaires, pirates and all.

[Admiral Yi]

Well except Bernie Bros didn't vote for Trump any more than PUMAs stayed at home. It's just a Democratic moral panic they have every four years.

And you might not like it but I think it's probably the future of European politics - this politics of style system/anti-system or populism/technocracy however you want to frame it. We may regret removing the left v right ideological content and institutions from politics.

Edit: Or, arguably, the future's central/east European post-ideological politics: billionaires, pirates and all.

Whatever a PUMA is, they can't be worse than Bernie Bros who cut off their own nose to spite their face. 

It may be the future of European politics and I will continue to express my disdain for it.

[PJL]

@Shelf:  that sounds almost exactly like the Bernie Bros, so I repeat: dumbasses.

An infantile belief in fighting "the system" combined with a childish grudge.

You're still thinking in terms of left & right. While the distinction still holds true for moderates, it's not so for extremists (for that is what many Melenchon voters are). Indeed, like Shelf said, left & right is less important these days, and the real faultlines are between moderates & extremists.

[Sheilbh]

Whatever a PUMA is, they can't be worse than Bernie Bros who cut off their own nose to spite their face. 

Party Unity My Ass - the alleged Clinton dead-enders in 2008. Had about as much impact as Bernie Bros.

It may be the future of European politics and I will continue to express my disdain for it.

You should probably look away now

You're still thinking in terms of left & right. While the distinction still holds true for moderates, it's not so for extremists (for that is what many Melenchon voters are). Indeed, like Shelf said, left & right is less important these days, and the real faultlines are between moderates & extremists.

Although I wouldn't frame it as moderate v extremist. The most successful anti-system cndidate has been Macron who blew up the left v right framework of French politics in 2017. He's a moderate, of a sort. I think Renzi tried something similar from within the PD before (like a scorpion on a frog) he betrayed everyone and had to found his own less successful party. There's also basically only slightly ideological movements - like M5S which also doesn't fit into a moderate v extremist framework. And parties that want to experiment with new methods of democracy - more online, direct democracy (though M5S were once big on that) or use of citizens assemblies.

Arguably it all starts with the Green movement that doesn't really sit on a strictly left v right or social democratic/Christian democratic/liberal framework?