Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Sheilbh]

Okay - that's good to know.

In part I am reacting to the online thing I see a lot about how this is probably a good thing because it weakens the far-right vote, they're divided etc - which I just don't buy. I think they can feed and sustain each other, especially around the sheer apocalypticism of Zemmour's campaign launch, I can see that feeding into Le Pen in the second round.

Of course I could be wrong. They could divide the far-right and we end up with a Macron-Bertrand race at the end which isn't the worst thing in the world.

[Duque de Bragança]

Problem is Sternhell has a very loose interpretation of fascism, as marxists.

Marxists don't have a loose interpretation of fascism - mainly because their take on fascism tends to be very linked to what are the circumstance in which fascism happens rather than what are its features as a political thought. Probably not least because Marxists don't really take fascism seriously as a philosophy (and they shouldn't because it isn't).

Mussolini being a socialist in the beginning, a real one [spoiler]unlike Macron who claimed to be a socialist[/spoiler] tends to cloud their judgement. 

He has been criticised a lot for his vision of French fascism, by the likes of Raymond Aron or scholars.

That's the nature of being a historian or an academic surely. You have a theory and it's criticised by others.
[/quote]

See? Far from commonly interpreted as you said, but pretty much contested.

[Duque de Bragança]

But that just increases my biggest worry/initial concern that he won't get to the second round, Le Pen will, but his presence in the campaign will make Le Pen look like a more moderate/mainstream.

You're reading this the wrong way. Zemmour will get votes Le Pen never could. He's seen as more moderate than Le Pen.

Right on the former, as he would get some votes Marine would not get, disagree with the latter. Marine is now seen as more moderate or less extreme, as you will, thanks to him.
Right now, Zemmour has taken front stage but she is probably bidding her time.

Of course I could be wrong. They could divide the far-right and we end up with a Macron-Bertrand race at the end which isn't the worst thing in the world.

Exactly.

[Sheilbh]

See? Far from commonly interpreted as you said, but pretty much contested.

Something can be a pretty common interpretation and contested - they're not contradictory. What I mean by commons is not fringe. But of course, it's not universal - fascism and its origins is an open area of scholarship.

Because there is no answer to what is fascism, what are its antecedents and how did arise - there will always be multiple takes on that and different ways of looking at or answering those questions.

[Duque de Bragança]

See? Far from commonly interpreted as you said, but pretty much contested.

Something can be a pretty common interpretation and contested - they're not contradictory. What I mean by commons is not fringe. But of course, it's not universal - fascism and its origins is an open area of scholarship.

Because there is no answer to what is fascism, what are its antecedents and how did arise - there will always be multiple takes on that and different ways of looking at or answering those questions.

Still a far cry from commonly interpreted because you specified "anyone influenced by marxism" and mentioning Trotsky, trots not being really common these days, even in France.

Back to topic, upset last night : Xavier Bertrand out of the run-off. Ciotti vs Pécresse.
Assuming Bertrand does not oppose the results or ask for a recount since he supports Pécresse vs Ciotti, I just don't see Ciotti so I guess Pécresse is the favourite now with the latter being a bit more "national", less right-wing.

[Zoupa]

I was surprised by those results. Pecresse is (probably) a shoe-in.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - although I swore I'd read that Bertrand was planning to run anyway/regardless of the results?

On Ciotti doing well it was mentioned in this thread from Ben Judah yesterday which catches my concern around Zemmour normalising Le Pen - perhaps it's less about who is more far right but that he opens supporting Le Pen to voters who previously have rejected her in particular traditionalist right-wing voters who seem far more tempted by Zemmour than they ever have been by Le Pen:

Ben Judah
@b_judah
I don't think Zemmour can win only and that he only has a chance of being in 2nd round. But @ECiotti currently leading in some polling to lead the centre-right saying he will vote for him in 2nd round shows the real danger he prefigures: a full blending of right and far right.
My expectation is Macron will win against 40-45% of the vote against Zemmour or Le Pen but this will leave this advancing far right — now blended with most of the old right — in prime place to beat the little politicians seeking to succeed him. Two terms of Obama; then Trump.
Worst case scenario for Macron? Zemmour sets themes for campaign to Round 1; allies and endorses Le Pen for Round 2 breaking a respectability ceiling on her vote for centre right; massive terrorist attacks before Round 2 create a Bataclan atmosphere — then we're looking 52-48.
I still think Macron wins even in that scenario: strong campaigner, lots of willingness to manoeuvre and strong enough story — but needs to win convincingly to set up future liberals and not scrape in as a hanger on to stop far right inevitability politics That's a win with 55%+.
Why do I think Macron still wins? I think Macron and fundamentals are too good. And I think Zemmour and Le Pen — unlike Trump, for example  —  are at the end of the day not really seen as credible leaders. Polling back this up on them two.

I think the risk of him setting the agenda in the first round is particularly key.

Edit: Eg:

Giovanni Capoccia
@gcapoccia1
Zemmour has welcomed E Ciotti's top score in the 1st round of Les Republicains primaries as an affirmation of "their" ideas. Just in case anybody still doubted Zemmour's influence on this campaign. Below is one of Ciotti's slogans--which is also Zemmour's mantra.

[alfred russel]

A couple thoughts on polling:

-if we have Zemmour, LePen, and Pecresse all viable candidates, are they pulling from similar enough pools of voters to open the door to a left wing candidate like Melenchon?
-the most recent harris interactive poll, in the scenario of a Pecresse primary win, had LePen at 20%, Pecresse at 11%, and Zemmour at 13%. Add those together and you have 44% of voters....there have been some polls with the right wing at higher amounts. Is France's population becoming rather right wing, with a strong trumpy flair (I'd put LePen and Zemmour in that camp, and they together have 1/3 of the polled votes)?

[Duque de Bragança]

A couple thoughts on polling:

-if we have Zemmour, LePen, and Pecresse all viable candidates, are they pulling from similar enough pools of voters to open the door to a left wing candidate like Melenchon?

Nope. Mélenchon is at a very low level compared to 2017, others are very low, and the left, even if not counting Jupin, is divided. Greens don't do well in presidential elections generally.

-the most recent harris interactive poll, in the scenario of a Pecresse primary win, had LePen at 20%, Pecresse at 11%, and Zemmour at 13%. Add those together and you have 44% of voters....there have been some polls with the right wing at higher amounts. Is France's population becoming rather right wing, with a strong trumpy flair (I'd put LePen and Zemmour in that camp, and they together have 1/3 of the polled votes)?

To the right yes, but trumpism is too Yank to be really useful in a comparison. Zemmour being an intellectual (opposite of Trump) and Marine is still far from Trump's low levels, trying to appear as somewhat moderate.

[Sheilbh]

A couple thoughts on polling:

-if we have Zemmour, LePen, and Pecresse all viable candidates, are they pulling from similar enough pools of voters to open the door to a left wing candidate like Melenchon?

I don't think so. Sadly I think the left are so divided and none of them seem to be doing well. If we do your addng together candidates of the right thing for the left I think they come out at about 25% which would be enough to get to the second round, but divided acrosss, say, seven candidates I can't see a point where they beat one of the French right-to-far right candidates.

The left vote is just so much more fragmented that even if the right cannibalise each other, one probably still survives.

-the most recent harris interactive poll, in the scenario of a Pecresse primary win, had LePen at 20%, Pecresse at 11%, and Zemmour at 13%. Add those together and you have 44% of voters....there have been some polls with the right wing at higher amounts. Is France's population becoming rather right wing, with a strong trumpy flair (I'd put LePen and Zemmour in that camp, and they together have 1/3 of the polled votes)?

I think I mentioned it before (or it might have been an article I read), but the comparison for Zemmour that works best, I think, is if Tucker Carlson ran for President.

Edit: In a way it's interesting - he's written history books and columns and is regularly on TV etc. Similarly you have Baudet who's got a PHD in philosophy, similarly had a media presence. I think - and I could be wrong because I love extrapolating to a grand unproveable theory - but I think this trend might be the start of a second wave of the far-right in Europe. The traditional far-right that we know and are used to talking about just about escaped the yobbish circles they moved in in the 70s/80s, but were basically parties of small towns, the whole "left behind" thesis or they were pitching for votes from people who hadn't been to university.

With Baudet and Zemmour it's different. It's the far right with a post-grad degree. They're aiming more at urban voters, more at educated voters (this is perhaps why Zemmour appeals more to traditional centre right voters than Le Pen ever has). It's the far right for people who want plausible deniability ("just asking questions") which is reflected in its preoccupations things like race and IQ or a pseudish version of the great replacement theory. I don't know how it'll work out but for many people voting for, say, Le Pen is a bit declasse and now they have an alternative. It may be a difference mainly in style - but I think style matters a lot in politics.

[Sheilbh]

How have the French left become this weak and divided? I get they've always been divided - but I looked back to 2002 and the left are split but winning over 40% of the vote. Here, they're split and winning about 25% of the vote


This whole polling pack is very interesting - I get that one part of it is clearly anti-system (Le Pen, Zemmour, Melenchon) v system politics (Macron, Pecresse, Hidalgo). And looking at the breakdown by class it looks like France has the most reactionary working class in any developed democracy with over 50% going for Le Pen or Zemmour (and even higher if you include the slight red-brown tendencies of Melenchon).

But it is extraoardinary when in a few European countries, especially Germany, there's been a bit of a fightback from the centre-left (de-PASOKification, perhaps). But not here.

More generally, it looks like Pecresse is having a bit of a honeymoon since the primary win and it now looks more likely that Le Pen and Zemmour are just splitting different types of far-right votes. But, obviously, that can change. I think at this point 2017 it still looked like Fillon-Le Pen was the more likely second round.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

or maybe the working class has understood very well that the left has abandoned (betrayed?) them by going full open-border-bourgeois and by -lately- going ever-woker?
The working class is usually far less 'progressive' than the city-dwelling bo-bos, nationalism generally doesn't leave a bad taste among the working class and they're also, usually, the first to 'enjoy' the many 'benefits' of mass-migration of incompatible cultures. Not to mention the expensive climate-plans...

And after 40 years you'd think that the left has understood that by now and changed their course. Maybe they haven't understood it yet, or maybe they have and the think that in the long term they've got more to gain by sucking up to the imported?


Not unlike this little poem by Brecht:

After the uprising of the 17th June
The Secretary of the Writers Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?

but with an extra large dose of Monty Python's People's Front of Judea.

long story short: Voting left is very expensive, in a lot of ways

[Josquius]

France has been earning my respect this past week.

Just read about the news earlier in the year that they're banning internal flights where the train journey takes under 2 hours with a push to make it 4. Great sane move.

Then I read this.
https://www.thedrive.com/news/43727/france-will-require-car-ads-to-tell-people-to-walk-or-bike-instead

What on earth is going on that France is being so progressive?

[alfred russel]

It sounds super dumb to take a flight when a train journey is 2 hours, but those flights are going to be filled with people on connecting flights.

When I was going to interviews at Notre Dame I flew to Chicago a bunch of times--it is an hour and a half drive. Every time I flew on to another city like Atlanta or Portland. If I was actually going to Chicago I drove, which of course is the only thing that makes sense. But taking a train to Chicago (if one existed) and then changing to a flight to Portland would have been a pain in the ass.

[mongers]

It sounds super dumb to take a flight when a train journey is 2 hours, but those flights are going to be filled with people on connecting flights.

When I was going to interviews at Notre Dame I flew to Chicago a bunch of times--it is an hour and a half drive. Every time I flew on to another city like Atlanta or Portland. If I was actually going to Chicago I drove, which of course is the only thing that makes sense. But taking a train to Chicago (if one existed) and then changing to a flight to Portland would have been a pain in the ass.

Yep can't let the state of the climate inconvenience us a bit.