Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Duque de Bragança]

You know exactly who is attracted to Zemmour. He knows it too, and has been veering more and more towards the unacceptable as the years go by and he tried to stay relevant.

A un moment donné, you have to stop analyzing the fine points of his discourse and look at who his supporters are.

Much of the same electorate as the RN, so a lot of proles who in the old days would have voted for the PCF, who don't dig multi-culturalism since they see its failures every day, with perhaps more ultra-conservative bourgeois? Lots of overlap, but he seems to attract other people as well.

Another factor would be a LR implosion with a typical for them leader ego war (la Droite la plus bête du monde).
I believe he could have a broader appeal than Marine, but then so could Marine's niece Marion, but for now Marine is still ahead, dream scenario for Jupin.

Zemmour is more than ever relevant, like it or not. He is more than just another Figaro journo these days. The champagne leftist who invited him regularly in his show to get better ratings regrets doing so in the past since he gave him a lot of exposition 15 years ago. The pro-Macron media still tries to depict as more of a danger to the conservatives but this is not convincing since Macron needs a candidate such as Marine to be elected in the run-off.

He'll get under 5% if he runs, because try as you might to rationalize it, France is not Boujadiste anymore, there is no great replacement coming, and Zemmour is just another short man trying to compensate.

That may be so, but for now he is credited with 10-11 %, if he runs that is, as you point out. He also could be a semi-flop à la Chevènement (the third man) with barely more than 5 %, but enough to pay back the campaign.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/presidentielle-macron-et-le-pen-en-tete-zemmour-a-11-selon-un-sondage-20210921

Poujadiste is actually much closer to what Zemmour is. I'll grant you that, specially since the term has a broader meaning than the original movement of shopkeepers complaining about high taxes. Reactionary (a label he claims) and ultra-conservative, is closer to reality.

As for another short man trying to compensate that's Flanby in a nutshell, but that's not exactly relevant to this discussion.

[Duque de Bragança]

So the campaign for 2022 seems to have started, with Macron promising a lot of money and finding a way to have attacks bounce off him:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1442433246415970304

Being such a divisive figure, he will certainly need it.

https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/un-oeuf-lance-sur-emmanuel-macron-lors-de-son-deplacement-a-lyon-20210927

[PDH]

"How do I become a divisive figure in France?"

"Get elected."

[Duque de Bragança]

Well, the run-off is more about voting against than for (first round for the latter), so it's not too badly said.
Still, Macron beat impopularity records held by Chirac or Flanby, not to mention Sarkozy.

[Duque de Bragança]

I've recently read about the French regions. It's fascinating France was able to get this logical reform through (the UK needs it too. And failed largely.).

Though one thing I'm really curious about is the generally rather awful naming - nouvelle aquitaine for instance... How was this OK where aquitaine wasn't?

Forgot this one. It's Flanby and administrative jargon. Awful.
Official reason in the beginning: regions are too small, we need bigger ones, even if it does not make historical sense, for economical reasons.
Since losing the regional capital means losing civil servant jobs, this is even more complex and costly. So Flanby...
As for new Aquitaine, it goes well beyond the historical Aquitaine so they had to come up with something new.
Less charitable souls would say it's motivated by the technocratic school ENA Voltaire 1981 class to design a region for their political needs.

[Sheilbh]

He'll get under 5% if he runs, because try as you might to rationalize it, France is not Boujadiste anymore, there is no great replacement coming, and Zemmour is just another short man trying to compensate.

He is good at this and I think it's possible he could overtake Le Pen as the main candidate of the far-right:


As ever, thrilled at the French left's love of running 7-10 candidates for 30% of the vote in the first round

Edit: But I think it's basically time to take Zemmour seriously.

[Duque de Bragança]

Xavier Bertrand is still the best candidate of LR. Nothing against Pécresse, at a region level she is always better than PS, whatever leftie candidate, but she would score even less.

Sheilbh, before you ask, Michel Barnier is not a serious contendant for candidate status. 
Same goes for Eric Ciotti or Philippe Juvin (total unknown).
Decision will be announced soon in the October 13th LR congress. No primary this time.

Dupont-Aignan has tried to ride the anti-pass wave in order to keep existing politically but that does not seem to make much good.

[Duque de Bragança]

As ever, thrilled at the French left's love of running 7-10 candidates for 30% of the vote in the first round

Poll does not show how many trots will be running this time. 

The Greens had a tight primary election but the radical eco-feminist islamo-leftist nutcase lost by 49% to 51%. Seems she wants to condition her support to the winner, Jadot, somewhat more moderate, and used to crazies. His number 2 for the European elections, Rivasi, is an anti-vaxxer, known for trying to organise screenings, as European MP, of Vaxxed a « documentary » by the infamous Andrew Wakefield.

[Josquius]

Obviously she's the devil. But has le pen done something lately to make people aware of this?

[Jacob]

Obviously she's the devil. But has le pen done something lately to make people aware of this?

Isn't it just that a different flavour of nationalist populist is eating some of her lunch?

[Sheilbh]

Isn't it just that a different flavour of nationalist populist is eating some of her lunch?

Yeah - Le Pen has tried to de-toxify her brand and that of RN. I thought that Zemmour might serve as almost helping that because if he was running Le Pen would seem like a more mainstream candidate.

Turns out I was probably worried about the wrong thing and she might actually just be replaced (a great replacement perhaps) as the main candidate of the far-right. And he might be a more successful, 21st century candidate - unlike Le Pen he hasn't come from a sort of political movement (and family), but from the media. Rather he's a prominent TV pundit and writer - a little bit of a French Tucker Carlson.

[Duque de Bragança]

https://www.france24.com/en/france/20211003-controversial-french-tycoon-and-former-minister-bernard-tapie-dies-at-78

French business magnate and former politician Bernard Tapie, whose larger-than-life career was marked by a series of high-profile legal setbacks, has died at the age of 78 after a four-year battle with cancer, his family announced on Sunday.


"Dominique Tapie and his family have the immense sadness to announce the death of her husband and their father, Bernard Tapie, this Sunday," said a statement sent to La Provence newspaper in Marseille, in which Tapie was a majority stakeholder.

Tapie, whose business interests included a stake in sportswear company Adidas, had been suffering from stomach cancer.

He was a former president of the Olympique de Marseille football club, leading it to the Champions League title in 1993. He was later sent to prison for corruption in a match-fixing scandal in the French first division.

"Olympique de Marseille learned with deep sadness of the passing of Bernard Tapie. He will leave a great void in the hearts of the Marseillais and will forever remain in the legend of the club," the club said in a statement.

French President Emmanuel Macron and first lady Brigitte released a statement calling the colourful Tapie a "gilded legend" who was nevertheless beset by the many "shadows" of his legal sagas. "The man who had enough fighting spirit to move mountains and take down the moon never laid down arms, fighting cancer until its last moments," the statement said, adding that Tapie's brand of "ambition, energy and enthusiasm" had inspired "generations of French people".

Prime Minister Jean Castex also paid tribute to Tapie, who had been a government minister in the 1990s, describing him as a "fighter".

One of Tapie's sons marked his death with an Instagram post saying, "Goodbye, my Phoenix".

"He left peacefully, surrounded by his wife, his children and grandchildren, who were at his bedside," the statement said, adding that he wished to be buried in Marseille, "the city of his heart", Stéphane Tapie wrote.

View this post on Instagram
A post shared by Stephane Tapie (@stephanetapie)
Tapie was born in Paris in 1943, the son of a plumber, and pulled himself out of a poor suburban childhood to become one of France's richest men. He also entered politics, becoming urban affairs minister in the Socialist government of François Mitterrand in the 1990s and later an MP in the French and European parliaments.

Tapie started by selling televisions by day in the working-class Belleville quarter of Paris while trying his hand as a crooner by night and as a racecar driver. But he soon ditched these early pursuits and amassed a small empire by the time he was 30 by taking over failing companies, scooping up 50 within a few years, and reselling them for millions.

The permanently tanned tycoon flaunted his newfound wealth, buying a vast Paris townhouse and a string of mansions on the French Riviera as well as a 72-metre (236-foot) yacht.

"If there is one thing I know how to do, it is making dough," he once boasted.

'I am ruined'

Tapie also found time to act, building on the nightclub singing performances of his youth and taking roles that included a police inspector on a popular TV show.

But his empire collapsed spectacularly in the late 1990s, beginning with the football match-fixing trial that saw him serve time in jail.

After a string of scandals and reversals, he was forced to admit in 2015 that, "I am ruined. I haven't got a thing."

Tapie also faced prosecution over his 1990 purchase of the German sports brand Adidas, which he was forced to sell a few years later to state-owned bank Crédit Lyonnais. A 2008 arbitration panel found he had been a victim of fraud because Crédit Lyonnais had undervalued Addidas at the time of the sale and awarded him €404 million in compensation.

The multimillion-euro price tag sent shockwaves through France and was tainted by allegations that the panel that acquitted him had been biased in his favour amid questions over why the dispute was settled by arbitration rather than in court.

Christine Lagarde, who was economy minister at the time, decided not to appeal the ruling – a decision for which she found guilty of negligence in 2016 by a court that rules on cases of ministerial misconduct.

Lagarde's handling of the case sparked suspicion that her former boss Nicolas Sarkozy, whom Tapie had backed for president in 2007, was favourably disposed towards the businessman – allegations Sarkozy has vehemently denied.

In 2017 Tapie was ordered to return the payout he received for the Addidas sale but later won an appeal. He was acquitted of fraud in the case in 2019.

Prosecutors eventually appealed and a new case was opened against Tapie. A court found him guilty of fraud over the arbitration settlement with the bank. An appeals court was due to issue its ruling on Wednesday.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP & REUTERS)

He was recently victim of a violent home invasion which certainly did not help him in his fight against cancer.
As for me, De mortuis nihil nisi bonum.

[Sheilbh]

From the same pollster - Zemmour now at 18% and has overtaken Le Pen for the first time and moved into second place.

Be interesting to see if that holds - especially if he actually confirms he's actually running. I'm not sure if that's better or worse for Macron than Le Pen, my instinct is better, but who knows.

[Duque de Bragança]

Zemmour is a better debater than Marine for starters.

The election is far away though, and both Jupin and Zemmour are not yet officially candidates. Many things can change between now and the election.

[Sheilbh]

So Zemmour launches his explicitly "great replacement" theory candidacy (e.g. in his speech launching his campaign "both right and left have lied to you [...] they have hidden the reality of our replacement" and wanting to hand on "our"civilisation as it was passed on by "our" ancestors).

The polling has shifted a bit so it looks less likely he'll get to the second round, but obviously it's early day. But that just increases my biggest worry/initial concern that he won't get to the second round, Le Pen will, but his presence in the campaign will make Le Pen look like a more moderate/mainstream.