Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Duque de Bragança]

Has there been any polling of Melenchon versus Macron in round 2? I assume Macron would roll, but with Zemmour and Le Pen splitting the right wing moron vote he could sneak into round 2...I saw a very recent poll with him 3rd at 13% and LePen is in second with just 15%. That is margin of error territory.

I've not seen any but it feels like the surge has been relatively recent so he's been bobbing around 10-11% for a while, while Zemmour, Pecresse and Le Pen have all, at one time or another, been in the high teens.

On the surface anyway. Last election some left wing French I know were thinking to vote le pen out of some kind of shake shit up / accelerationist desire

I think there's been a lot more talk (and polling) suggesting left-wing voters might abstain if it's Macron-Le Pen again. The polls for that have stayed pretty solidly at 55/45 which is solid - but not great and a shift from 66/33. Hopefully Le Pen's long Putin links etc will take their toll and bring numbers back down to where she was in 2017.

I've always thought Macron will win and I think he will win better than we'd expectd because of the war - but I'm not sure if the tankie left (who will, I imagine, broadly be backing Melenchon) might play a bit of a spoiler role. I think they'd still just abstain but I wonder if in part they'd be tempted to vote for Le Pen over Macron who is being "aggressive" and "provocative" in supporting arming Ukraine, increasing European defence commitments etc in a way that is aimed at Putin and broadly in support of the "hegemonic/imperialist" West?

Mélenchon has had a few rough spots during the campaign, but his islamo-leftist stance does not seem damaged by his pro-Putin stance (and anti-Central/Eastern Euro racism). Last poll puts hims before even Pécresse (free fall according to polls lots of potential voters go to Macron).

Mélenchon in the run-off means even more votes (70 vs 30° for Flanby 2.0 (Jupiterian wannabee) than against Marine 60 vs 40° or even Zemmour (68 VS 32°. Marine quickly repudiated her support for Putin, Zemmour less so and less adroitly. Mélenchon still wants France out of NATO, whereas the other two just want out of the integrated command and blames the US/NATO and Russia equally for the war. For a man who claims to be "insoumis" he is certainly submissive to strong men such as Putin. 

Zemmour, instead of paying at least paying lip service to to accepting real refugees at least in a token way, something even his most identity politics voters would have accepted or even encouraged, only mentioned supporting Poland in dealing with refugees so before the crisis he had momentum, tied with Marine to the run-off. He seems to have at least stopped the losses for now.
Maquereau, being the coward he is or realist about his real debating abilities, has refused any debate with other contendants, even major ones, before the first round.

That being said, Mélenchon appears to be well above anyone else left in the left (excluding the liberal opportunist Macro). Hidalgo, Paris Mayor and official PS candidate is polled at 1.5-2 %.  Jadot, Green candidate with a fairly divided party (radical leftist wing, bobo darling is around 5%, Commmunist remnant at 3.5 %.
For Sheilbh, Trots are around 1 %, both of them. 

Dupont-Aignant (souverainiste) is around 2%.

Nothing will make me laugh/cry more than the French left doing a "people's primary" to try and find a unity candidate - the end result was that Taubira launched another campaign and none of the other left-wing candidates withdrew (she has since pulled out - but still)

You are bit harsh on Taubira(clure for her most vehement critics a quite offensive portmanteau). She promised she would not be another candidate. She kept her word! 

[Sheilbh]

Good God - a French President with a net positive approval rating Don't know if I've ever seen that before.

World Elects@ElectsWorld
#France, President Macron approval rating poll:

Approve: 51 % (+11)
Disapprove: 47 % (-11)

IFOP, 03/03/22

[Jacob]

One of the signs of impending apocalypse, no doubt.

[Duque de Bragança]

Good God - a French President with a net positive approval rating at the end of his mandate Don't know if I've ever seen that before.

World Elects@ElectsWorld
#France, President Macron approval rating poll:

Approve: 51 % (+11)
Disapprove: 47 % (-11)

IFOP, 03/03/22

Fixed!

Entirely due to circumstances beyond Flanby's 2.0 control or his abilities.

Putin made him look like a fool, with a petit télégraphiste vibe (VGE-era reference about the Afghan war and Brezhnev)yet he benefits.

He does not campaign and barely registered his candidate status, by letter, without any public statement.

[Duque de Bragança]

Mélenchon, the pro-Putin islamo-leftist, gives a stern warning, were he elected president and France attacked, by promising a "cruel and devastating retaliation" to whomever would dare it.

https://rmc.bfmtv.com/actualites/politique/jean-luc-melenchon-promet-une-replique-foudroyante-et-cruelle-si-la-france-est-attaquee_AV-202203100299.html

 

https://twitter.com/GG_RMC/status/1501866889479344138?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1501866889479344138%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Frmc.bfmtv.com%2Factualites%2Fpolitique%2Fjean-luc-melenchon-promet-une-replique-foudroyante-et-cruelle-si-la-france-est-attaquee_AV-202203100299.html

It was during a show called les Grandes Gueules "the Big Mouths".  Sounds appropriate.

[viper37]

Mélenchon, the pro-Putin islamo-leftist, gives a stern warning, were he elected president and France attacked, by promising a "cruel and devastating retaliation" to whomever would dare it.

Makes sense.  France has so many enemies nowadays, attacks could be coming from anywhere.

[Duque de Bragança]

For the non-francophones, tt's more about Mélenchon's delusions of grandeur, paranoia plus anti-EU/US/NATO stance than anything else:

Que ferait Jean-Luc Mélenchon à L'Elysée en cas d'attaque contre la France ? Sa réponse a été très directe dans "Les Grandes Gueules" ce jeudi sur RMC et RMC Story. "La France se défendra toute seule. Elle a une armée complète. Gare à qui s'en prendrait à nous, si c'est moi qui dirige ce pays, a prévenu le candidat à la présidentielle. La réplique sera foudroyante et cruelle. Si on attaque les frontières de la France, oui, la réplique sera militaire et terrible. Elle sera ce qu'elle doit être."

"François Mitterrand, on lui avait dit : 'C'est quoi la dissuasion ?'. Il avait répondu : 'C'est moi'. Ça veut dire : 'Si vous avez peur de moi, vous aurez peur du reste'. Alors, peur de moi, ça s'est garanti", a ajouté Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Plus, some statement about the value of Europe according to him:

"Le président de l'Union européenne en ce moment, c'est monsieur Macron. Apparemment, il téléphone sans arrêt. Le mec, il rejoue la scène des fusées à Cuba. Il fait Kennedy, avec le téléphone... Il n'arrête pas de téléphoner paraît-il, il discute, on ne sait pas de quoi, et à la sortie où vont discuter les gens? En Turquie. C'est un échec, une déroute totale. L'Europe est hors-jeu, l'Europe est ridicule", selon Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

He somewhat recognizes, implicitly perhaps unwillingly Turkey is not (in) Europe. 

Pour le député des Bouches-du-Rhône, "il faut arrêter avec la mentalité de la guerre froide". "La page est tournée depuis 1991, on est dans un autre monde, explique-t-il. Et dans cet autre monde, on continue à se comporter comme dans la période de la guerre froide et ça donne des catastrophes parce que vous menacez Vladimir Poutine, qui ensuite prend des décisions qui sont irréversibles."

No to the Cold War mentality, stop threatening Putin who then is "forced" (implied not stated for the non-francophones) to takes drastic and irreversible steps.

"La géopolitique, c'est dans le temps long, ce n'est pas dans les cinq minutes d'une émission télé, ajoute Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Ça prend du temps. Mais par exemple en ce moment, les Etats-Unis sont en train de menacer la Chine. Attendez-vous à ce qu'un jour ou l'autre, les Chinois aient une mauvaise réaction. Il faut arrêter de considérer que nous avons vocation à dominer le monde et que les autres ont vocation à faire ce qu'on leur dit."

The US is threatening China as well, according to him, so expect trouble or bad reaction from the Chinese, sooner or later.
Then some rambling about how "we" (the West I suppose) should stop to try to dominate the world and tell others what to do.

[Josquius]

So for Macron supposidely being so unpopular he sure has a really healthy lead in the polls.

I'm seeing a over 90% chance of winning the election.

[Duque de Bragança]

So for Macron supposidely being so unpopular he sure has a really healthy lead in the polls.

I'm seeing a over 90% chance of winning the election.

Easy, people are far from enthusiastic over it but are resigned.

Sad news for Sheilbh, one of the historical Trots died, aged 80.

Alain Krivine, figure historique de la gauche radicale, est mort
Alain Krivine
Alain Krivine BRUNO FERT POUR «LE MONDE»
Alain Krivine est mort samedi, à Paris, à l'âge de 80 ans, a appris Le Monde auprès de sa famille. « Je t'entends encore dire que la plus belle manière de célébrer la mémoire des disparus est de perpétuer leur combat. (...) Le faire sans toi n'aura plus jamais la même saveur », a regretté Olivier Besancenot, qui milita à la Ligue communiste révolutionnaire (LCR) puis au Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (NPA) aux côtés de M. Krivine.
Né le 10 juillet 1941 à Paris, Alain Krivine était issu d'une famille de juifs ukrainiens émigrés en France après les pogroms antisémites de la fin du XIXe siècle. Biberonné comme ses frères aux mouvements étudiants communistes, il était l'un des fondateurs, en 1966, de la Jeunesse communiste révolutionnaire (JCR), et devient l'une des figures de Mai-68, aux côtés de Daniel Cohn-Bendit, Jacques Sauvageot et Alain Geismar.
Lire aussi  Alain Krivine, figure historique de la gauche radicale, est mort
Son activisme lui vaut alors d'être emprisonné un mois à la Santé et entraîne la dissolution de la JCR. Il est ensuite désigné par la Ligue communiste, fraîchement créée, comme candidat à l'élection présidentielle de 1969. Un an après Mai 68, la France entière découvre donc Krivine, cheveux frisés, lunettes sur le nez, et son programme : détruire l'ordre capitaliste et redistribuer les richesses. Il n'obtient que 1,06 % des suffrages.
Le NPA a salué sa mémoire par un communiqué : « Jusqu'à la fin de sa vie, Alain n'aura rien lâché et n'aura pas cédé à la pression du "ça te passera avec l'âge" », et annoncé des hommages à venir dans les jours qui viennent. « Salut, vieux, et merci pour tout. On continue le combat ! », a promis le parti.

[Valmy]

So for Macron supposidely being so unpopular he sure has a really healthy lead in the polls.

I'm seeing a over 90% chance of winning the election.

Duque may not speak for all of France...or the rest of the candidates may just really suck.

[Duque de Bragança]

Duque may not speak for all of France...

Indeed. I may not speak for the very rich who love Macron (remember the "puissances de l'argent" by you know whom?)  Flanby 2.0, Rotschild banker, brought in as finance minister by Flanby, self-proclaimed and styled enemy of (High) Finfance. 
Macro(n) infamously known for his classism in France, disparaging criticisms of the common folk, something Anglos on Languish seem to conveniently ignore.

Such as unemployed people,if they are jobless that's because they are all illiterate, drunkards or need just to cross a street to find a job. 

It's true Macron has contradicted himself more often than not, saying in FRENCH "there is not a French culture" now embracing his statuts of defender of France and its previously non-existing in a dangerous world, "colonisation = crime against humanity" then criticising the Algerian régime for instrumentalising a very biased version of History to make up for their corruption and incompe

Conservative/Old money/upper middle bourgeoisie might not love him very much but since he protects their interests, they won't really oppose him, except for the really opinionated. OTOH, nouveaux riches love him, to be fair.

The Banlieue unassimilated/problematic crowd might despise him for not so good reasons but is scared to death by Marine or Zemmour, so will unanimously vote for him in the run-off, that is if they vote at all. Won't happen for the first round and legislatives given their low political culture and interest in French politics beyond Identity Politics.

or the rest of the candidates may just really suck.

Maquereau sucks as well, so it's not just who sucks the most but the context.
Following the yellow vest movement, due to some pathetic green-washing of a diesel and gasoline tax increase, and its radicalisation of the remnants (some bad police work motivated by incompetence at the high levels hello Castaner former interior management), Flanby 2.0 hit record lows, surpassing Flanby. Not to forget Flanby 2.0 was elected by default.
 
So after a disastrous pandemic crisis management, "life must go on" one week before the lockdow, "useless masks", so authorities can make stocks, by the idiot mouthpiece in chief (la Si bête euh Sibeth), last mask factory closed to save money, mask production delocalised to China of all places, early very bad organisation of the vaccination campaign.
Eventually, vaccine roll-out combined with stupid anti-vaccine people unwillingly played right into his hand with a hysterical and conspiracy-minded opposition to health/vaccine pass linked to rights (yes citizens have rights but also duties), plus some international crises e.g Eastern Med between Greece and Turkey where even Marine and Zemmour supported him, not Merluchon though AFAIK (Grey Wolves were eventually declared illegal in France!) plus the current war in Ukraine gave him a rally behind the flag wave. Putinolatry by Marine, Zemmour and Merluchon did not help. If Marine quickly reneged it, Zemmour did not do it so well, with Mélenchon still managing to blame the US, NATO and EU for the war and only then, at best, Putin's Russia.
But then Mélenchon does not seem to suffer much from it, his pro-full immigration stance does not encompass central and Eastern Europeans, even as refugees (a missed opportunity by Zemmour to sound more appealing btw).

By the way, remember Macro's line about the braindead state of NATO? Another "victim" of Putin's folly.
 
 
Not to mention Pécresse, the only one who could beat him in the run-off is plagued by a party full of double-dealing crypto-macronolâtres, may not the best campaigner out there but then Macron hardly was (ridiculous at times with his shouting up to voice breaking) and does not campaign and yet does not need for now. To be fair, she left a LR party in disarray for a while and came back so she is not exactly beyond blame.
Mélenchon is now third, ahead of her.

[crazy canuck]

"Mélenchon, the pro-Putin islamo-leftist"

I understand what pro-Putin means.  But what is an islamo-leftist?

[Jacob]

"Mélenchon, the pro-Putin islamo-leftist"

I understand what pro-Putin means.  But what is an islamo-leftist?

My understanding is that it's meant to signify leftists who embrace multiculturalism in such away as to include religious muslims, while attacking and undermining traditional Western values and social norms.

[Duque de Bragança]

"Mélenchon, the pro-Putin islamo-leftist"

I understand what pro-Putin means.  But what is an islamo-leftist?

My understanding is that it's meant to signify leftists who embrace multiculturalism in such away as to include religious muslims, while attacking and undermining traditional Western values and social norms.

Nope. It's just a collusion of leftists and islamists. Leftists think the ultra-reactionary (more than the so-called) traditional Western values islamists can do their bidding, electorally speaking, by taking pro-islamist/muslim stances (difference is hard to make at times).
Officially, Mélenchon is not multi-culturalist and claims some adherence to the French Revolution. In practice, well think of Putin who projects an Orthodox persona abroad but is very keen of islamists at home Russia/Chechnya as long as they obey. Muslims  being way more reactionary in general also helps. At the price of constant –islamic– immigration, something Navalny pointed out and got him into trouble by well-meaning but ignorant multiculturalist people in the West.

It's not a coherent ideology of islamic socialism/commmunism. Forget about the Islamic Commune of Paris, or rather Marseille for Mélenchon, this would entail secularisation or rather laïcité of some sort of which is just islamists don't want to hear about.

PS : for some reason, the pro-Putin positioning of Mélenchon has not had any adverse effect on him yet.

[crazy canuck]

Follow up question - what is a pro-Islamist/Muslim stance in the context of French politics?  That seems to be the thing that determines the definition - although I am still not sure where the "leftist" adjective fits in?