2016 elections - because it's never too early

[DGuller]

I'm not saying that 538 is not good at what it is, relatively speaking.  I'm just saying that mentioning the accuracy of their 1-day forecasts is not that useful when we're discussing how much we should be worried about 6-week forecasts.  They maybe be better than others, but still not be very useful that far out.

[alfred russel]

No one else is nearly as accurate.

I doubt that. The day before a national election it is usually quite easy to pick the winner in 45 or so states. Primaries are also usually rather easy.

What performance do betting odds have?

[DGuller]

No one else is nearly as accurate.

I doubt that. The day before a national election it is usually quite easy to pick the winner in 45 or so states. Primaries are also usually rather easy.

What performance do betting odds have?

Same problem applies with evaluating the performance of the betting markets.  If you don't attach time element to the performance, these metrics are useless.  Betting odds can fluctuate wildly over the history of the contract, and you're ignoring all of that movement if all you care about is 1-day prediction.

[Ed Anger]

[alfred russel]

Same problem applies with evaluating the performance of the betting markets.  If you don't attach time element to the performance, these metrics are useless.  Betting odds can fluctuate wildly over the history of the contract, and you're ignoring all of that movement if all you care about is 1-day prediction.

I know, but as a sporadic reader of 538, it seems the short term predictions line up well with betting odds. Which is to say, I doubt Tim's suggestion that Nate Silver is way better than everyone else. There just aren't very many upsets.

I agree with you 1 day performance is dramatically different than 6 week performance, I'm just arguing with Tim on another point he brought up. Nate Silver was very bearish on Trump during the lead up to the primaries, and while that is just a single data point, it does suggest he isn't great at longer term predictions.

[Eddie Teach]

Who won?

[garbon]

Who won?

Do we have a thread on the topic?

[derspiess]

Who won?

Giant Meteor

[lustindarkness]

Who won?

Giant Meteor

Yes please, end it already!

[Admiral Yi]

Which way you planning on voting right now Lust?

[CountDeMoney]

Trump, obviously. Our troops will need translators on the ground in Mexico.

[lustindarkness]

I live in Alabama where Trump will win easy. I can vote for Gary, or Deadpool, or Batman, or...

[garbon]

In a campaign of already bizarre things, this campaign got Will and Grace crew back together for a 9 minute episode.

[garbon]

This was funny...or cringe worthy. Maybe bit of both?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDKBBA_nwqc

Bob Schieffer grills Trump surrogate: "Can you admit you have no evidence?"

[Liep]

This was funny...or cringe worthy. Maybe bit of both?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDKBBA_nwqc

Bob Schieffer grills Trump surrogate: "Can you admit you have no evidence?"

More the latter.

Arguing has been beaten to a pulp and left to die.