Breaking: Turkey expels Israeli ambassador

[Sheilbh]

I suppose if you ignore the whole Gaza issue.

Worth doing.  Settlements are in the West Bank, Jerusalem's in the West Bank, any land swap will be predominately in the West Bank.  Gaza's far less important.

[Neil]

I suppose if you ignore the whole Gaza issue.

Worth doing.  Settlements are in the West Bank, Jerusalem's in the West Bank, any land swap will be predominately in the West Bank.  Gaza's far less important.

Is the PA willing to just abandon Gaza and make a Palestinian state consisting only of the West Bank?  Otherwise, the fact that there's constant fighting in Gaza and the fact that the PA has no authority whatsoever there is going to put a damper on moving forward.

[Sheilbh]

Is the PA willing to just abandon Gaza and make a Palestinian state consisting only of the West Bank?  Otherwise, the fact that there's constant fighting in Gaza and the fact that the PA has no authority whatsoever there is going to put a damper on moving forward.

Well no, the PA still claims Gaza, as it were and consider it part of a Palestinian state.  But the main issues are related to the West Bank.  I think the Egyptian pressure for a unity government will be helpful on Gaza though - as could Barghouti's call for mass peaceful demonstrations by Palestinians in support of the statehood bid.

[Admiral Yi]

I think it's a very debateable point whether the PA gains or loses by its attempted rapproachment with Hamas.

[Neil]

Is the PA willing to just abandon Gaza and make a Palestinian state consisting only of the West Bank?  Otherwise, the fact that there's constant fighting in Gaza and the fact that the PA has no authority whatsoever there is going to put a damper on moving forward.

Well no, the PA still claims Gaza, as it were and consider it part of a Palestinian state.  But the main issues are related to the West Bank.  I think the Egyptian pressure for a unity government will be helpful on Gaza though - as could Barghouti's call for mass peaceful demonstrations by Palestinians in support of the statehood bid.

I think that ongoing skirmishes and rocket attacks are definitely a 'main issue', in that it makes it hard to resolve the land issue without assurances that the security issue can be resolved.  We'll see how much pressure the Egyptians can bring to bear, but Hamas has very good reasons to remain a bit intransigent.  Governing would interfere with their gangster operations.

[Razgovory]

erdogan, why won't someone assassinate you*?

*no, languish, this is not a threat. and neither is "i hope erdogan gets assassinated"

I know this is petty, but every Turkish thread after my trashing for hating on erdogan will get a big:
TOLD YOU SO!

Oh and Marty: you were also in the "Erdogan is a liberal and definetly better than the military" camp, so don't act like you didn't wave the flag of the non-existant moderate religious turkish liberal government

No I wasn't. I have always been wary of his religious bent. I admit I have been in the anti-Israel camp on the flotilla thing, but I've never been in pro-Erdogan camp.

Yes.  Your recollection of events is closer then Tamas's.

[Sheilbh]

I think that ongoing skirmishes and rocket attacks are definitely a 'main issue', in that it makes it hard to resolve the land issue without assurances that the security issue can be resolved.

The security issues have been resolved in the West Bank.  Israel allows PA security forces to lead counter-terror operations.  Gaza is a separate issue that really needs to be dealt with by Palestinians and whatever pressure the Arab world can bring to bear. 

My view is that, probably for the first time I can think the Israelis are the ones not missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.  They've got a credible negotiating partner who has delivered on security and built something of a state - with a lot of western support.  But this Israeli government can't deal with them and they could very soon be facing a nightmare scenario of the UN recognising Palestine and Barghouti's peaceful million man march - which will no doubt be joined by Palestinians elsewhere.  If Israel had real leaders they would have taken a risk rather than just talking about 'de-legitimisation' and being almost passive in the face of events.  Sadly, right now, Israel has tactical politicians in charge.

We'll see how much pressure the Egyptians can bring to bear, but Hamas has very good reasons to remain a bit intransigent.  Governing would interfere with their gangster operations.

One of the interesting effects of this whole Arab uprising is that I think Arab public opinion now exists and I don't think any regime can entirely ignore, fabricate or manipulate it as they once could. 

With Hamas I think this has meant three things. 
The protests in Gaza so far have been for a unity government, they've also been shut down pretty quickly.  In addition I think Egyptian pressure is coming because of Egyptian public opinion which could make it stronger and Egypt a more honest and, hopefully, useful partner in the Middle East.  Responding to the protests in Syria has been difficult for Hamas (and Hezbollah), I believe Hamas more or less dumped Assad and that relations with Iran are more strained than ever before.  Hezbollah, I understand, stuck with Assad but have seen their credibility and popularity nosedive and are now trying to minimise the damage.

None of that leads anywhere but I think that it could be a big difference in the Middle East if the regimes, even if they're not democratic, have to deal with the views of their people.

[Neil]

I think that ongoing skirmishes and rocket attacks are definitely a 'main issue', in that it makes it hard to resolve the land issue without assurances that the security issue can be resolved.

The security issues have been resolved in the West Bank.  Israel allows PA security forces to lead counter-terror operations.  Gaza is a separate issue that really needs to be dealt with by Palestinians and whatever pressure the Arab world can bring to bear.

I don't think you can divorce Israel from the Gaza question.

[dps]

But this Israeli government can't deal with them and they could very soon be facing a nightmare scenario of the UN recognising Palestine and Barghouti's peaceful million man march - which will no doubt be joined by Palestinians elsewhere. 

I doubt that the Isreali government really cares if the UN recognizes Palestine or not.  A peaceful mass protest by the Palestinians, if they can actually manage it, is, I think, much more of a nightmare for Isreal. 

[Sheilbh]

I don't think you can divorce Israel from the Gaza question.

They've, rightly, divorced themselves and will mainly be concerned with maintaining the blockade and helping undermine Hamas.  Again I think part of that is a reason for the Israelis to work with the PA.

[Sheilbh]

I doubt that the Isreali government really cares if the UN recognizes Palestine or not.  A peaceful mass protest by the Palestinians, if they can actually manage it, is, I think, much more of a nightmare for Isreal.

I don't think Israel cares about the UN recognition in itself, but they've made a big deal of it with, as I said earlier, the talk of 'de-legitimisation'.  Maybe they're more worried about the countries who'll end up voting for it.  Israel's put a lot of pressure on EU nations and is clearly more worried by democracies (often with pretty successful economies and historically good relations) like Brazil and India hinting they'll support it.

If by the UN recognising Palestine it means the Arab League, plus a few African states then I don't think it necessarily represents any sort of problem for Israel.  If the world's democracies do I think that is a bit more of a problem.

[Razgovory]

But this Israeli government can't deal with them and they could very soon be facing a nightmare scenario of the UN recognising Palestine and Barghouti's peaceful million man march - which will no doubt be joined by Palestinians elsewhere. 

I doubt that the Isreali government really cares if the UN recognizes Palestine or not.  A peaceful mass protest by the Palestinians, if they can actually manage it, is, I think, much more of a nightmare for Isreal.

Yeah, they care about what the UN says just a little less then the US does.  A peaceful Palestinian movement would likely work.  I think it would be a nightmare only for the hardliners and hawks.  Most Israelis would welcome a real peace, and understand and accept the surrender of some territory.  The problem is that they've been burned too often in the past.

[Sheilbh]

And in response to this the Foreign Office in Israel reportedly suggesting moving to support the PKK and even think of supplying them with arms, offering to get chummy with the Armenians and spending time in the UN pushing motions condemning Turkey's treatment of minorities. 

Of course the Prime Minister's office has said that these were just ideas and Israel's policy is committed to repairing relations.

[Razgovory]

And in response to this the Foreign Office in Israel reportedly suggesting moving to support the PKK and even think of supplying them with arms, offering to get chummy with the Armenians and spending time in the UN pushing motions condemning Turkey's treatment of minorities. 

Of course the Prime Minister's office has said that these were just ideas and Israel's policy is committed to repairing relations.

The Foreign policy of Israel has been nuty in the last few years.  It's like they've been intentionally sabotaging what the government is doing.

[HisMajestyBOB]

And in response to this the Foreign Office in Israel reportedly suggesting moving to support the PKK and even think of supplying them with arms, offering to get chummy with the Armenians and spending time in the UN pushing motions condemning Turkey's treatment of minorities. 

Of course the Prime Minister's office has said that these were just ideas and Israel's policy is committed to repairing relations.

The Foreign policy of Israel has been nuty in the last few years.  It's like they've been intentionally sabotaging what the government is doing.

Isn't the Foreign Minister from one of the nutbar parties of Bibi's coalition?