[Canadian Election Results] Harper vs Iggy vs the 'stache

[Camerus]

Apart from party hacks, few look back fondly on the NDP government of Ontario.  Certainly by the end of their time in power, there was the perception they had fucked things up something fierce.  Ontario voters were so fed up with the NDP that they elected a provincial Conservative party with an unusually right-wing mandate - the so-called "Common Sense Revolution".

Contrast that to the current Ontario Liberals.  They were victims of circumstance, too (the global financial crisis), but the perception that they have misgoverned the province is far less prevalent.

[crazy canuck]

Rae won power during one of the hardest recessions to hit Ontario ever. Same shit that's effecting Obama now. Like Obama he tried to walk the line between both sides and ended up alienating them both. Whatever happened, I wouldn't say he destroyed Ontario. Ontario survived nicely.

He came in with a policy to try to spend his way out of the recession.  It was an idiotic idea and he didnt reverse course until it was too late.  By that time he had lost the respect and trust of everyone.  Ontario survived but that was in spite of the brief period in with the NDP ruled.

[Barrister]

Apart from party hacks, few look back fondly on the NDP government of Ontario.  Certainly by the end of their time in power, there was the perception they had fucked things up something fierce.  Ontario voters were so fed up with the NDP that they elected a provincial Conservative party with an unusually right-wing mandate - the so-called "Common Sense Revolution".

Contrast that to the current Ontario Liberals.  They were victims of circumstance, too (the global financial crisis), but the perception that they have misgoverned the province is far less prevalent.

Also after in the next election the NDP immediately fell back to third place, where it has remained to this day.

[Barrister]

Damn it I'm bushed today.  Stayed up much too late watching election results.   

[crazy canuck]

One thing is for sure.  With the NDP as the main rival now in Federal elections there will no longer be any complaints about the parties being too similiar.

[Jacob]

I think we're going to see the various efforts that were tried by Harper, but he could not pass.  Abolish the gun registry.  Pas various anti-crime bills.   Abolish subsidies to political parties.  And yes Senate Reform.

What Harper has long been pushing was that since the Constitution couldn't be changed, he wanted to push for amendments that could happen without a constitutional amendment.  So no changes to the distribution of seats, but senators to sit for fixed terms, not for life.  Senators to be elected, not appointed.

I thought the gun registry already got abolished? I mean, personally I think a gun registry is a good idea, at least for cities, but not having one is not a big issue for me.

Same with the anti-crime bills. I don't think they're really necessary, but there's nothing there that gets me up in arms.

As for abolishing subsidies to political parties. Again, I think they're a good thing to have for a variety of reasons, but getting rid of them is not the stuff of nightmares. I'd prefer a political culture less dependent on fundraising, but that's just the Scandinavian in me (and maybe it's changed in Scandinavia by well as well). So yeah, not losing any sleep there.

Senate reform? Heh... that will be interesting. I'm alright with the status quo, but if he does go through with a reform that could be intersting to watch. I'll believe it when I see it, but if Harper undertakes a competent and civic minded reform of the institution then he'll get some significant respect from me there. I'm not sure two elected chambers is a good idea. As per the arguments about an elected house of lords in the UK, if the senators are elected they'll have more of a mandate and will end up exerting more influence on everyday government. I'm not sure that's a good direction to go in, but it might work out.

If that's the worst I can expect from Harper, who knows? Maybe the Jacob household may vote Conservative next time around, assuming the immigration issue I brought up earlier was just pre-election fearmongering and nothing of substance. We'll see, though with the Chinese community going pretty hard for the Conservatives we may see our concerns addressed one way or another; I think Oex is right about the Libs having lost their advantage when it comes to appealing to new immigrants.

That said, I expect some fucking around with climate issues, the census fuckery to stay in place and a general continuing weakening of services and help for the most vulnerable in our society (with a shifting of resources towards private, faith based initiatives). Are you thinking this will be pretty mild still, rather than a full blown front and centre agenda?

And what about health care? How much do you think they're going to play around with that? And abortion? I heard someone claim that Harper said he wouldn't touch abortion at all with a minority, implying that he had plans if he got a majority. Was that just more rumour mongering, or can we expect to see something there?

[Oexmelin]

The results would suggest your analysis is flawed.  The phenomenon of Right of centre voters moving from the Liberals to the Conservatives occured across the country.   The conservative vote went up more than the polsters predicted and the Liberal vote went down further than the polsters predicted.  The reason was the rise in NDP popularity.  Nobody who is fiscally conservative would ever want the NDP anywhere near power.  As a result those voters jumped to the best option to prevent that.

I am not claiming it did not play a role - it almost certainly did, especially since the overall support for the Cons only slightly rose, in terms of percentage. What I mentioned was simply that we tend to project arguments we find convincing as "major ones", and apply to federal politics across the country the dynamics of federal politics we are most familiar with in our provinces/regions.

The reasons I gave you was to nuance that view about fiscal conservativeness as the overall factor. I assure you there are many fiscal conservatives in Quebec. Why hasn't the same phenomenon happened here? Fiscal conservativeness must have played a role for Toronto's Malthus equivalents. But what about the others?

[Admiral Yi]

He came in with a policy to try to spend his way out of the recession.

Did he finance the spending through increased taxes or through deficit spending?

[crazy canuck]

I thought the gun registry already got abolished? I mean, personally I think a gun registry is a good idea, at least for cities, but not having one is not a big issue for me.

Its the long gun registry.  Not the gun registry - that is still in place and there is no plan to remove that.  Hand guns are still heavily restricted and iirc the new crime bills will put even more penalties on violating those restrictions.

The long gun registry was going to be abolished but at the last moment some rural NDP and Liberal candidates switched their votes to support the registery.  Not sure if any of them got re-elected.

And what about health care? How much do you think they're going to play around with that? And abortion? I heard someone claim that Harper said he wouldn't touch abortion at all with a minority, implying that he had plans if he got a majority. Was that just more rumour mongering, or can we expect to see something there?

Harper expressly said during the election he would not touch the issue - so much for the rumour.

[Jacob]

Harper expressly said during the election he would not touch the issue - so much for the rumour.

Well, I didn't hear it until after the election. I guess someone just insterted a "minority" into the quote, to cast some doubt on Harper's intentions.

[crazy canuck]

He came in with a policy to try to spend his way out of the recession.

Did he finance the spending through increased taxes or through deficit spending?

Deficit spending.  His idea was that Ontario, on its own, could spend its way out.  All major economists warned his plan would not work and that all that would be accomplished is that Ontario would end up with a high deficit, high unemployment and high taxes to pay for the fiasco.

[crazy canuck]

The reasons I gave you was to nuance that view about fiscal conservativeness as the overall factor. I assure you there are many fiscal conservatives in Quebec. Why hasn't the same phenomenon happened here? Fiscal conservativeness must have played a role for Toronto's Malthus equivalents. But what about the others?

I dont know.  I depend on you to tell me about why things occur in Quebec as they do.  I do not pretend to understand politics within Quebec and I am very much an outside observer.  You should read my comments as applying to areas outside of Quebec.

[viper37]

The reasons I gave you was to nuance that view about fiscal conservativeness as the overall factor. I assure you there are many fiscal conservatives in Quebec. Why hasn't the same phenomenon happened here? Fiscal conservativeness must have played a role for Toronto's Malthus equivalents. But what about the others?

Because there aren't that many fiscal conservatives to begin with.

[Barrister]

That said, I expect some fucking around with climate issues, the census fuckery to stay in place and a general continuing weakening of services and help for the most vulnerable in our society (with a shifting of resources towards private, faith based initiatives). Are you thinking this will be pretty mild still, rather than a full blown front and centre agenda?

And what about health care? How much do you think they're going to play around with that? And abortion? I heard someone claim that Harper said he wouldn't touch abortion at all with a minority, implying that he had plans if he got a majority. Was that just more rumour mongering, or can we expect to see something there?

Not sure what you mean by "fucking around with climate issues".  I think Harper's position is thathe is not going to take steps unilaterally.  If there's a global agreement great, but he won't hobble Canadian business (and as both a northern nation, and an oil exporter, our per capita CO2 emissions are necessarily quite high).

I don't know what you mean by "general weakening of services" either.  Any examples?

Health care is definitely going to be a big issue.  The health care "deal" agreed to by Paul Martin, and lived up to by Harper, was to increase HC transfers 6% every year.  Clearly that is not sustainable.  Right now Harper has said he plans to continue with those increases, but that's going to make it VERY difficult to blance the budget any time soon.

CC set you straight on abortion.  He said he has no plans, period.  Same with dealth penalty.

Basically my take on Harper's Conservatism is that it definitely has a 'social conservative' side, but not really interested in sex.  They want to support families, hard work, self-reliance, and taking responsibility for your actions, but aren't going to get worked up over who sleeps with who or profanity.

[crazy canuck]

Basically my take on Harper's Conservatism is that it definitely has a 'social conservative' side, but not really interested in sex.  They want to support families, hard work, self-reliance, and taking responsibility for your actions, but aren't going to get worked up over who sleeps with who or profanity.

And I think that is exactly why Harper has been successful.  He is a true Conservative in the sense that he doesnt believe government should be interfering in private matters - which includes who sleeps with whom and the results of that.

The side of the Conservative movement that advocates for government inteference in those matters has always baffled me.

Health care is definitely going to be a big issue.  The health care "deal" agreed to by Paul Martin, and lived up to by Harper, was to increase HC transfers 6% every year.  Clearly that is not sustainable.  Right now Harper has said he plans to continue with those increases, but that's going to make it VERY difficult to blance the budget any time soon.

This will be the biggest issue of his mandate.  I hope he continues to allow the provinces to create their own solutions regarding how to manage their own systems within the concept of a single payor system.