[Canadian Election Results] Harper vs Iggy vs the 'stache

[crazy canuck]

It will really depend on the NDP's performance in Quebec. Were I a Liberal supporter, I would at least wait a year or two to see how it turns out.

I agree.  There are a lot of uncertainties that have to be answered.  First, how will the NDP adapt to its new base of support in Quebec.   Second, to what extent will Layton be able to fill the void the Liberals have historically filled.  My first impression is that the left of the party will not allow Layton to move further to the middle.

That of course leaves a lot of Room for Harper to govern from the middle in order to capture that vote on the other hand Jacab et al. fear a right wing hidden agenda will govern Canada.  We shall see, however, given how Harper has transformed the Reform/Alliance/PC merger into a governing party my bet is on the former rather than the latter.

If the NDP move left and the Conservatives move right then there may still be room for the Liberals but they have some big obstacles - no funding, no leader, no obvious appealing leader waiting to take over.

[Oexmelin]

Incidentally it came to me this morning that Legault's group was in need of soldiers - and the Bloc's ex MPs are now out of a job...

Won't do for many of them. Legault took great pains to create an agonisticist "movement" regarding the constitutional struggle, hence the presence of Sirois by his side, a convinced federalist, and the Bloc had moved to the left, and shed many of their more right-wing MPs (though not all of them).

[Jacob]

It'll be interesting to see what happens next. I think the big questions are:

How much will Harper use his majority to enact a social conservative agenda? Personally, I expect he'll aim to be a stable government without too much extremism, with a few signficant moves here and there. If he avoids stepping on any landmines he could keep this majority for quite a while, assuming he keeps the natural accumulation of arrogance and corruption of governing parties under control.

How will the NDP adjust? Will they make a credible opposition that convinces former Liberal voters to support them and makes them a "not scary" alternative for middle of the road Canadians whenever Harper pisses them off? Will they be able to do that while still maintaining the newly found support in Quebec? It seems like a tricky balancing act, but it's possible.

How will the Liberals go about reinventing themselves? Are they far enough in the wilderness now to start getting their shit together and set out a positive vision for the country rather than simply "we're not the Conservatives and we're not the NDP"? I expect they'll need one more electoral defeat before they get it together (and the Conservatives accumulate enough baggage ). Of course, if the NDP look more credible over the next parliament and move a bit to the middle, it may be a hard battle for the Liberals. Nonetheless, if you're young and want a career in politics, it may not be a bad move to get into the Liberal establishment now. You'd get a chance to define the potential rebirth of the party and "be someone" by the time (if) they actually get a shot at being in charge again.

And for Quebec... certainly it will be intersting to see how the provincial scene changes in response to this. I agree that it's much too simplistic to say "seperatism is dead" due to the BQ defeat. In fact, I'm fairly comfortable in predicting that either Harper or Layton will have a big messy Quebec-induced headache on their hands within the next five or six years.

[Camerus]

I imagine the Conservatives will become increasingly scandal-prone and arrogant during their majority.  This will lead to the election of the Liberal Party in the next federal election in 4-5 years.  You heard it here first.   

With the death of public funding of political party, I wouldn't be so quick to predict the reelection of the Liberals. The Cons didn't simply win to have their ideas triumph. The won so that their hold onto power would remain for years to come.

I need a ghost smiley.
This one  just isn't good enough.

The Cons won to replace the Libs as the natural governing party.  There's no harm in that.  It's not like the PQ expect to win so they can lose for the next 20 years after that.

The Liberals still have deep roots in Canada and established supporters / donors that they can draw upon. 

Let's not forget that the NDP's surge largely came from Quebec - support which IMO is likely to evaporate as quickly as it appeared.  Much of the NDP support in the rest of Canada (and to some extent in Quebec as well, presumably) came from voters who were turned off by Iggy and this year's incarnation of the Liberal platform.

Of course, the Liberals will need to get their shit together to provide a credible alternative for the next election, which will be easier said than done.  But 4 years is a long time in politics, and certainly long enough for a messiah to emerge.  When large swathes of the Canadian population become disenchanted with the inevitable Conservative scandals (scandals that are part and parcel of being the governing party for a prolongued period of time) or simply sick of the status quo and want a change, are they going to turn to the NDP?  I doubt it.  The natural governing party of Canada will be there to offer a credible alternative - much in the same way Harper was elected for the first time, in fact.

[Oexmelin]

The natural governing party of Canada will be there to offer a credible alternative

Quite frankly, I think that schtick is dead. The Cons have tapped into ethnic clientelism - and that won't go away. I think we will have two governing parties from now on.

[Camerus]

The natural governing party of Canada will be there to offer a credible alternative

Quite frankly, I think that schtick is dead. The Cons have tapped into ethnic clientelism - and that won't go away. I think we will have two governing parties from now on.

I do agree with you that that shtick certainly seems less believable now.  My point in using that phrase was to suggest the permanence of the Liberal Party as a credible institution in Canada.

[viper37]

What really sucks is now an Open & affordable Internet is a thing of the past.

Thanks Ontario.

let me remind you, that your party, the Bloc, was in favour of a total interdiction of free digital copies of the music/movies you own.  The Bloc's proposal was to make you pay once per medium.
And also, I have to remind you the the Conservatives are the ones who asked the CRTC to go back to its homework concerning the unlimited internet access plans.

[viper37]

Welcome to Ruth Ellen Brosseau btw.  She campaing hard, very hard on the field to convince the voters she was the best choice.

meet Ruth

She's working in Ottawa, living in Gatineau, MP of a riding 1hr east of Montreal.  And she doesn't speak French.
Although she's cute, since she lives in Quebec and not Ottawa, that doesn't disprove the general theory about girls over there.

So she is the one who spent her campaign money and her whole campaign time whoring around in Vegas, eh?

yes

[viper37]

So she is the one who spent her campaign money and her whole campaign time whoring around in Vegas, eh?

She looks like a cheap lap dancer.  Maybe she'll go on doing that in Ottawa.

-----


Incidentally it came to me this morning that Legault's group was in need of soldiers - and the Bloc's ex MPs are now out of a job...




G.

they already attacked Legault on his proposals and opinions that sovereignty wasn't for now.  They'd be hypocrites to rally him.

[Barrister]

The Cons have tapped into ethnic clientelism - and that won't go away.

[Grey Fox]

What really sucks is now an Open & affordable Internet is a thing of the past.

Thanks Ontario.

let me remind you, that your party, the Bloc, was in favour of a total interdiction of free digital copies of the music/movies you own.  The Bloc's proposal was to make you pay once per medium.
And also, I have to remind you the the Conservatives are the ones who asked the CRTC to go back to its homework concerning the unlimited internet access plans.

I also didn't vote for the Bloc. It's also not my party, I'm flaky. I'm not BB or you.

Yet we need more telecom regulation to ensure more competition, not less.

[BuddhaRhubarb]

a non lurking moment.

Not an unexpected turnout for me, though I had in y mind less seats going to NDP from Libs. Decimated, are the Libs. meh. They have no one to blame but themselves there. The biggest gains were for the NDP, so I have some hope at least of a reasonable voice or two on the floor. In a country that's become a nation of fearful nellies, that's as much as you can ask for.

My family (big big big big) back east all voted Con (Ontario/NB) and in my sad arguments with them over voting they all trotted out Law & Order, fear of terrorism first and foremost. FEAR is the real reason anyone wins anything in this nation. And well whatever. It's sad to me, but there's nothing I can do about it.

I will keep giving my half assed opinions whether anyone agrees with them or not. But I don't see the need for such acrimony over it. I disagree.... so what. dissent is the cornerstone of democracy.

So what will be Harper's first priority, Y'all... putting more people in Jail, Buy airplanes we can't afford (nor need) ?  or is he just as wrapped up in the playoffs as everyone else?

[Barrister]

So what will be Harper's first priority, Y'all... putting more people in Jail, Buy airplanes we can't afford (nor need) ?  or is he just as wrapped up in the playoffs as everyone else?

Well his first priority will be to pass the budget which the opposition defeated.

After that... I suspect he wants to move on all the stuff the opposition wouldn't let him pass.  Abolish the gun registry.  Elected senators.  Change party financing rules.

[Oexmelin]

The Cons have tapped into ethnic clientelism - and that won't go away.

i.e., "elect us! or rather, elect one of *you* for us! we will look after your community's interest". This had formerly been solidly held by the Liberals until now. The Cons have succeeded in dislodging the Liberals from that monopoly in Ontario, at least. 

At least that's been my understanding of it, and a huge part of their strategy on the island of Montreal. 

[BuddhaRhubarb]

So what will be Harper's first priority, Y'all... putting more people in Jail, Buy airplanes we can't afford (nor need) ?  or is he just as wrapped up in the playoffs as everyone else?

Well his first priority will be to pass the budget which the opposition defeated.

After that... I suspect he wants to move on all the stuff the opposition wouldn't let him pass.  Abolish the gun registry.  Elected senators.  Change party financing rules.

will it be the same budget? I think with a majority, it may be a bit less non-partisan, but maybe that's just my own "fear" talking. I think he should abolish rather than elect Senators. Biggest waste of tax money going is the Senate, who mostly rubber stamp shit anyway.