[Canadian Election Results] Harper vs Iggy vs the 'stache

[Grey Fox]

So what will be Harper's first priority, Y'all... putting more people in Jail, Buy airplanes we can't afford (nor need) ?  or is he just as wrapped up in the playoffs as everyone else?

Well his first priority will be to pass the budget which the opposition defeated.

After that... I suspect he wants to move on all the stuff the opposition wouldn't let him pass.  Abolish the gun registry.  Elected senators.  Change party financing rules.

I wish he scrap the Planes & spend the money on Deep Sea Artic ports & a couple nuclear powered ice breaker.

We need that alot more then jets.

[Barrister]

The Cons have tapped into ethnic clientelism - and that won't go away.

i.e., "elect us! or rather, elect one of *you* for us! we will look after your community's interest". This had formerly been solidly held by the Liberals until now. The Cons have succeeded in dislodging the Liberals from that monopoly in Ontario, at least. 

At least that's been my understanding of it, and a huge part of their strategy on the island of Montreal.

That's been a staple of politics since 1867.  The Conservatives have gotten more effective at it, but it is soemthing all parties have practiced.

[Habbaku]

Yet we need more telecom regulation to ensure more competition, not less.

Does that mean you're against the "regulation" that awards monopolies to telecoms in Canada?

[crazy canuck]

The Cons have tapped into ethnic clientelism - and that won't go away.

i.e., "elect us! or rather, elect one of *you* for us! we will look after your community's interest". This had formerly been solidly held by the Liberals until now. The Cons have succeeded in dislodging the Liberals from that monopoly in Ontario, at least. 

At least that's been my understanding of it, and a huge part of their strategy on the island of Montreal.

As well as in some ridings here in BC where the Chinese vote and East Indian vote make up most of the voting population.  In fact the Conservative candidate in Vancouver South refused all invitations by mainstream (English) media and only spoke to the Chinese media outlets here in Vancouver.

One local commentator said he was amazed the Liberals didnt react at all to the Conservatives taking over their traditional areas of support.  I think the Liberals simply took that support for granted and didnt think the Conservatives would have any chance in attracting that part of the electorate. That certainly had an impact in the Libs going down to just two seats in BC.

But I think that is a minor factor comparied to the movement by the right of centre Liberals flocking to the Conservatives in this election.  My riding is a perfect example.  Going into election day the Liberal Candidate had a healthy lead in the polling.  The Conservative candidate won in a landslide.  The reason?  Nobody wanted to take the chance that the NDP might squeeze up the middle and the Conservatives were the best choice for fiscally conservative voters.

The days of the Liberals being the "natural party" for fiscal conservative/social liberals is now dead.  The Liberals are going to have to earn that back or at least wait for the Conservatives to give back that ground.

[crazy canuck]

The Liberals still have deep roots in Canada and established supporters / donors that they can draw upon. 

They dont have the donors.  That is why Chretian instituted the funding formula.  The Conservatives and NDP on the other hand have donors.  If the Liberals are going to come back this is going to be a major issue for them.

[Oexmelin]

That's been a staple of politics since 1867.  The Conservatives have gotten more effective at it, but it is soemthing all parties have practiced.

Of course, but I wasn't refering to polities (i.e., a village being a community), nor to old communities (Franco-Ontarians, etc.), but the more recent newcomers. 

[Oexmelin]

But I think that is a minor factor comparied to the movement by the right of centre Liberals flocking to the Conservatives in this election.  My riding is a perfect example.  Going into election day the Liberal Candidate had a healthy lead in the polling.  The Conservative candidate won in a landslide.  The reason?  Nobody wanted to take the chance that the NDP might squeeze up the middle and the Conservatives were the best choice for fiscally conservative voters.

The days of the Liberals being the "natural party" for fiscal conservative/social liberals is now dead.  The Liberals are going to have to earn that back or at least wait for the Conservatives to give back that ground.

I don't know. "Fiscal conservativeness" sounds like something that was susceptible to work for you - hence, more convincing - or others in your situation. Just like I appreciated Ignatieff for carrying one of the messages that was important for me.

My guess is the "major factor" was precisely the fact that the Cons decided that such factors varied considerably from one region to the next, and played very tightly controlled messages which differed from one part of the country to the next. The difference between the Quebec and ROC campaign being only one example.

[crazy canuck]

But I think that is a minor factor comparied to the movement by the right of centre Liberals flocking to the Conservatives in this election.  My riding is a perfect example.  Going into election day the Liberal Candidate had a healthy lead in the polling.  The Conservative candidate won in a landslide.  The reason?  Nobody wanted to take the chance that the NDP might squeeze up the middle and the Conservatives were the best choice for fiscally conservative voters.

The days of the Liberals being the "natural party" for fiscal conservative/social liberals is now dead.  The Liberals are going to have to earn that back or at least wait for the Conservatives to give back that ground.

I don't know. "Fiscal conservativeness" sounds like something that was susceptible to work for you - hence, more convincing - or others in your situation. Just like I appreciated Ignatieff for carrying one of the messages that was important for me.

My guess is the "major factor" was precisely the fact that the Cons decided that such factors varied considerably from one region to the next, and played very tightly controlled messages which differed from one part of the country to the next. The difference between the Quebec and ROC campaign being only one example.

The results would suggest your analysis is flawed.  The phenomenon of Right of centre voters moving from the Liberals to the Conservatives occured across the country.   The conservative vote went up more than the polsters predicted and the Liberal vote went down further than the polsters predicted.  The reason was the rise in NDP popularity.  Nobody who is fiscally conservative would ever want the NDP anywhere near power.  As a result those voters jumped to the best option to prevent that.

This election made Federal politics into something very similar to BC politics.  The NDP on the left and a coalition of voters to the right of the NDP coming together to stop the NDP from forming a government.

[Admiral Yi]

Does the NDP now, or has it ever, controlled a provincial government?  How much leeway does a province have to fuck up its own finances?

[viper37]

At least that's been my understanding of it, and a huge part of their strategy on the island of Montreal. 

But what about outside the island?
http://blogues.cyberpresse.ca/lagace/2011/05/01/laval-appel-au-vote-ethnique-grec/

What about the whole Bloc campaign, Parlons Qc?  The aim of voting for the Bloc is to put Québécois in a position of relative power by opposition of the non-Québécois in the other political party.  As Drainville said himself, a real Québécois votes Bloc.  That may not be 100% ethnic, but it's close.

I think you read too much of Le Devoir.  It's a good newspaper when you're an adept of literature, but it wrongly represents the reality outside a certain part of Montreal and it tends to distorts the fact when it doesn't suit the pro-PQ/Bloc journalists.

[viper37]

I don't know. "Fiscal conservativeness" sounds like something that was susceptible to work for you - hence, more convincing - or others in your situation. Just like I appreciated Ignatieff for carrying one of the messages that was important for me.

Wich one?  The one where he says he's the heir of Trudeau or the one where he says he's the heir of Laurier?

[viper37]

I also didn't vote for the Bloc. It's also not my party, I'm flaky. I'm not BB or you.

Yet we need more telecom regulation to ensure more competition, not less.

What exactly did the Conservatives do to ensure less competition in telecom?

[Barrister]

Does the NDP now, or has it ever, controlled a provincial government?  How much leeway does a province have to fuck up its own finances?

It has, at different times, controlled BC, Saskatchewan, Manitoba (current government), and Ontario.

It hasplenty of leeway to fuck things up.  They did so in Ontario and BC.

[Grey Fox]

Yet we need more telecom regulation to ensure more competition, not less.

Does that mean you're against the "regulation" that awards monopolies to telecoms in Canada?

Yes. Our Big 5 are too big. Too much vertical integration. No one can enter the market.

[crazy canuck]

Does the NDP now, or has it ever, controlled a provincial government?  How much leeway does a province have to fuck up its own finances?

Yes, they have and the leeway to fuck up is large.  Their ability to govern at the Provincial level varies across provinces.  In BC and Ontario they were disasters.

edit:  BB beat me to it.