[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Rex Francorum]

Looks like there is a 3 parties race, more than ever. Things can change, but the most probable outcome is a minority government where the winner will have no room to manoeuver.  According to http://www.threehundredeight.com, the average projection gives 118 seats to the Conservatives, 115 to the NPD and 104 to the Liberals.

[PRC]

This is not too far from where I live, drive past it every day on the way to work:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ndp-campaign-signs-harper-1.3226430

NDP campaign gets creative in Stephen Harper's riding
For $50, anyone can have a message put on a campaign-style sign

One Calgary-area campaign is getting creative in its quest to unseat Conservative Leader Stephen Harper.

For a $50 donation to the local NDP candidate, anyone can put a custom message on a campaign-style sign that will be placed near a Harper election sign.

No swearing allowed.

"We wanted to give people in Calgary and in the constituency the chance to send a public message to the prime minister, to tell him what they think," said Peter Oliver, who works on communications and strategy for the NDP's Matt Masters Burgener, who is running against Harper in the riding of Calgary Heritage.

"They fill out a form on our website and they're given 50 characters to write whatever message they want to Stephen Harper."

In good taste

The initiative, called Send Harper a Message, was launched on Sept. 13 and has already brought in $2,000 for the campaign, Oliver says.

"One of my favourite ones was 'I want off the omnibus,'" said Oliver, who adds the submissions so far have been a mix of playful and serious.

There are no rules around what someone can say on a sign, which features a small NDP logo, as long as it's in good taste.

"If someone just wants to yell a bunch of bad words at him, we're not going to put that up. But at the same time, if someone wants to say 'You're doing an amazing job, we love you,' we'll put that up too," Oliver said.

"I think that's representative of what they're saying and you'll see the proportion of how many people are happy and how many people are not so happy."
Missing candidate

He says the idea came from the perception Harper is rarely in the constituency and that those who are expected to vote for him rarely get the opportunity to speak their mind or ask questions.

"We're hearing from a lot of people that Harper is taking Calgary for granted," said Oliver. "He doesn't really campaign here, they don't see him here during the election, they don't expect to see him."

The Conservative Party was asked to comment on this story and emailed a statement that said it is focused on the economy during this election and that it is the best choice for managing Canada's finances. The NDP is also squaring off against Brendan Miles from the Liberal Party, Kelly Christie from the Green Party and Libertarian Steven Paolasini.

The Burgener campaign seems realistic about its odds, but is taking the challenge seriously.

Some members of his team, such as Oliver, worked on successful underdog campaigns including Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi's first election, Calgary city councillor Evan Woolley's upset over incumbent John Mar and Alberta Party Leader Greg Clark's defeat of then-education minister Gordon Dirks.

"I think there actually is a way to beat Stephen Harper in his own riding and have him lose his own seat, regardless of whether or not the Conservatives win a minority or majority government," said Oliver, who worked on all three of those campaigns.

"I'm not just going to say naively that 'Oh yeah, we are going to do it,' but there is a way, we have a team that can and has done it before and we are really motivated."

[crazy canuck]

Interesting take on the surplus/deficit issue in a globe editorial - the fiscal policy of the three parties is not that different as they all plan to reduce an already low debt/GDP ratio.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorials/how-to-react-to-canadas-surprising-budget-surplus/article26361999/?service=mobile

[Josephus]

Gwyn getting a bit ahead of himself, I think

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2015/09/15/stephen-harper-is-done-gwyn.html

[crazy canuck]

If the election was today perhaps.  But barring some other external event occurring close to Election Day I think the economy and fiscal policy will be the main issues.

[Josephus]

If the election was today perhaps.  But barring some other external event occurring close to Election Day I think the economy and fiscal policy will be the main issues.

I tend to agree. The election is still 5 weeks away.

[Malthus]

A lot of commentators are going to look very silly if the Cons fail to lose. 

Admittedly their campaign - so far - has been dreadful. Not that the campaign of the others has been great.

A long-time NDP supporter I was talking to remarked that, so far, the election campaign has resembled the Wizard of Oz: Harper has no heart; Trudeau has no brain; and Mulcair has no courage.

[He's somewhat pissed off at Mulcair's move to what he thinks of as bland centralism] 

[crazy canuck]

That's a very good way to describe what we have seen thus far

[viper37]

A lot of commentators are going to look very silly if the Cons fail to lose. 

Admittedly their campaign - so far - has been dreadful. Not that the campaign of the others has been great.

A long-time NDP supporter I was talking to remarked that, so far, the election campaign has resembled the Wizard of Oz: Harper has no heart; Trudeau has no brain; and Mulcair has no courage.

[He's somewhat pissed off at Mulcair's move to what he thinks of as bland centralism] 

that's why I've decided to vote Harper, that's the least worst of the candidates.  No heart is no big deal, it just means you keep your head cool and analyse situation in a rational manner.  If only he was atheist, he'd be perfect

[Malthus]

To complete the description - there is even a "Wizard from Oz" behind the scenes! 

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/for-campaign-magic-harper-turns-to-a-wizard-from-oz/

[Grey Fox]

You should not vote for religious people. Ever, in all situation.

[Malthus]

You should not vote for religious people. Ever, in all situation.

That would be a pretty tough injunction in the US. 

[Valmy]

That would be a pretty tough injunction in the US. 

Depends on where you live.

[Barrister]

Gwyn getting a bit ahead of himself, I think

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2015/09/15/stephen-harper-is-done-gwyn.html

Indeed - I have heard it suggested that, in fact, Harper may have saved his campaign by his non-action on the Syrian refugee issue (and indeed Conservative numbers have gone up a few points since then).

[Josephus]

Gwyn getting a bit ahead of himself, I think

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2015/09/15/stephen-harper-is-done-gwyn.html

Indeed - I have heard it suggested that, in fact, Harper may have saved his campaign by his non-action on the Syrian refugee issue (and indeed Conservative numbers have gone up a few points since then).

Yes. I read something along those lines too.

I think, unless something else drastic happens, like maybe two boys beaching, people will have moved on from this come election time. Voters, by and large, have short memories.