[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

Gretzky isn't even allowed to vote in this election.

I doubt Gretzky has had anything to do with the shift in the polls.

Rather, Harper has for the last week been able to shift the debate towards the economy and deficits, which is more favourable terrain for him.  Plus they've started going fairly negative against the NDP on spending.

It's at least given me some faint hope.  Before everything just seemed to be trending negative.  We'll see if this trend continues, or is merely a blip on the way to Prime Minister Mulcair's swearing-in.

[crazy canuck]

I guess the Gretzky endorsement actually helped.  CBC's poll of polls (not to be confused with the poll of poles) gives the Conservatives their first lead of the campaign, albeit my a razor-thin 0.7%.

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

I doubt Gretzky had any effect.

The Conservatives passed legislation prohibiting ex-pats from voting.  One of the stated reasons for the legislation was that Canadians outside the country are not sufficiently affected or knowledgeable about legislation being passed in Canada to entitle them to vote.  I would think that a large number of voters would not be persuaded by an endorsement from someone who cant vote because they are not sufficiently affected by or knowledgeable about government policy. 

or in summary, celebrity endorsements 

[Barrister]

I guess my humour is too subtle for this place.

[crazy canuck]

I guess my humour is too subtle for this place.

I thought you were clutching at whatever straw you could 

[viper37]

I'm disapointed at you CC.  There's a huge political scandal in BC, and I have to learn it from my local newspaper!  You should be ashamed for not reporting it here first!

Christy Clark referred to Seattle soccer players as "princesses" and the social media are roaring their discontent.  My God, what have we fallen to?? If it wasn't for this stupid Federal campaign, we might have had a couple of editorials on it

[crazy canuck]

Funny, I had to learn about it through your local paper too.   

[PRC]

Anything Christy Clark does that has the slightest hint of grey is going to lead to her being pounced on.  From yoga on the bridge to the PC nonsense of this story. 

[viper37]

Funny, I had to learn about it through your local paper too.   

that's the kind of silly stuff I like to read, from time to time, false controversies

[Barrister]

I guess the Gretzky endorsement actually helped.  CBC's poll of polls (not to be confused with the poll of poles) gives the Conservatives their first lead of the campaign, albeit my a razor-thin 0.7%.

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

And today the poll-tracker has the Liberals in the lead at 30.5%, however has all three parties within a 1% range (Libs 30.5, CPC 30.3, NDP 29.7).

Odd - I hadn't sense any Liberal momentum.  Perhaps a rogue poll?  There's no doubt the polls are incredibly tight though.

[crazy canuck]

I guess the Gretzky endorsement actually helped.  CBC's poll of polls (not to be confused with the poll of poles) gives the Conservatives their first lead of the campaign, albeit my a razor-thin 0.7%.

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

And today the poll-tracker has the Liberals in the lead at 30.5%, however has all three parties within a 1% range (Libs 30.5, CPC 30.3, NDP 29.7).

Odd - I hadn't sense any Liberal momentum.  Perhaps a rogue poll?  There's no doubt the polls are incredibly tight though.

Its a problem with the national polling.  Liberal support is very strong on the Maritimes but that support does not translate into seats.  The Globe tracker which looks at support as it translates into seats still has the Liberals as a long shot to win the most seats.  The NDP are still most likely to have the most seats in a minority government.  If that occurs the NDP will likely find it easy to cooperate with the Liberals' more left leaning policies.  It may the biggest unintended consequence of this election - that the Liberals become the left wing of an NDP coalition. 

[crazy canuck]

The NDP still have a slim lead over the Conservatives in the percentage chance they will have the most seats 41 to 39 percent.  There is still only a 1% chance any party will have a majority.  Add to that data the position of both the NDP and Liberals that they will not support a Conservative minority government. This leaves Conservative voters in swing ridings or three way races with an interesting choice.  Do they support the Conservatives even though the chances are they will not be able to form a government.  Or do they vote strategically for the lesser of what they view as the two evils of the NDP and Liberals in order to keep the greater of the two evils from forming a minority government which will be supported by the other.

I don't think we have ever seen this dynamic in any other Federal election.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-election-forecast-2015/article25377958/

[Barrister]

The NDP still have a slim lead over the Conservatives in the percentage chance they will have the most seats 41 to 39 percent.  There is still only a 1% chance any party will have a majority.  Add to that data the position of both the NDP and Liberals that they will not support a Conservative minority government. This leaves Conservative voters in swing ridings or three way races with an interesting choice.  Do they support the Conservatives even though the chances are they will not be able to form a government.  Or do they vote strategically for the lesser of what they view as the two evils of the NDP and Liberals in order to keep the greater of the two evils from forming a minority government which will be supported by the other.

I don't think we have ever seen this dynamic in any other Federal election.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-election-forecast-2015/article25377958/

We've never had a race that is almost perfectly balanced three ways.

I actually suspect you'd see very little strategic voting as a result.  Strategic voting makes sense when your preferred candidate is all but guaranteed to lose, so you vote for the least bad option.

BUt this time, more candidates than ever seem to have a chance at winning.  Unless you're a voter east of Ottawa, your Conservative candidate has a good shot at winning - so why would you vote for anybody else?



Oh, and yesterday I posted that I hadn't sensed any Liberal momentum?  I realize now where it might have come from - the promise to cancel the F-35 purchase.  It's right out of the Liberal handbook - from Chretien cancelling the helicopter purchase, or McGuinty promising to cancel gas plants.  Never mind the consequences - those won't be felt for years down the road.  It sounds good in an election campaign.

[Grey Fox]

It's cancelling the F-35 and using the money to build Military boats.

It's like a Liberal strategist reads languish.

[crazy canuck]

But this time, more candidates than ever seem to have a chance at winning.  Unless you're a voter east of Ottawa, your Conservative candidate has a good shot at winning - so why would you vote for anybody else?

Because, according to the polling projections the Conservatives have a 1% chance of forming a majority government and they cannot form a minority government this time - the other parties will not cooperate with them. If the conservative wins in their close riding then the conservative voter is going to be stuck with a government formed by one of the other two parties or another election.

Its an interesting choice.  One that NDP voters have had to make for years.  Now that the NDP is leading the polls the shoe is somewhat on the other foot.

@ GF, I think you are right.

[Barrister]

But this time, more candidates than ever seem to have a chance at winning.  Unless you're a voter east of Ottawa, your Conservative candidate has a good shot at winning - so why would you vote for anybody else?

Because, according to the polling projections the Conservatives have a 1% chance of forming a majority government and they cannot form a minority government this time - the other parties will not cooperate with them. If the conservative wins in their close riding then the conservative voter is going to be stuck with a government formed by one of the other two parties or another election.

Its an interesting choice.  One that NDP voters have had to make for years.  Now that the NDP is leading the polls the shoe is somewhat on the other foot.

@ GF, I think you are right.

If you assume that the Liberals and NDP won't support the Conservatives, then your choice is between the Conservatives and a Liberal/NDP alliance or coalition.  In that case it seems to me it makes little difference whether you vote NDP or Liberal.