[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Malthus]

People used to say that about Broadbent as well. He scored high on the "guy we want to see as prime minister" polls...but not his party

Yeah, the NDP's problem is that some of their most vocal supporters include the not-quite-sensible-but-loud-left-fringers and the that-annoyingly-selfrighteous-dude-who-thinks-he-understands-more-than-he-does and those can be quite off-putting whether or not they influence the actual governance. It's not that the other parties don't have off-putting supporters, but they may be off-putting to smaller constituencies.

Here is where Harper's reputation as a bully and a dictator comes in handy to the Conservatives (despite the fact it makes him thoroughly dislikable). Conservative MPs or party members shoot of their mouths about some crazy-ass conservative bull, few pay them heed, believing that whatever they may say makes little difference to the party - as it is dominated by Harper.

People assume that the NDP is more inclusive and stuff. They do not know if Mulcair has as tight a grip on the party as Harper does (and strongly suspect he doesn't). So when NDP MPs or party members shoot off their mouths, they worry that the party may actually reflect that. 

[crazy canuck]

I think that is an accurate assessment.  Imo, the most significant difference between Harper and Manning is Manning allowed the wingnuts in the Reform party to have a voice. 

[Jacob]

Here is where Harper's reputation as a bully and a dictator comes in handy to the Conservatives (despite the fact it makes him thoroughly dislikable). Conservative MPs or party members shoot of their mouths about some crazy-ass conservative bull, few pay them heed, believing that whatever they may say makes little difference to the party - as it is dominated by Harper.

People assume that the NDP is more inclusive and stuff. They do not know if Mulcair has as tight a grip on the party as Harper does (and strongly suspect he doesn't). So when NDP MPs or party members shoot off their mouths, they worry that the party may actually reflect that.

Yeah, that makes sense to me.

[viper37]

NDP mp claims former liberal engaged in sex without explicit consent

There's more details in French, so use Google translate:
Text

[Malthus]

NDP mp claims former liberal engaged in sex without explicit consent

There's more details in French, so use Google translate:
Text

Those two Liberals may be guilty as sin, but so far, their treatment would do Kafka proud. 

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, this is getting beyond bizarre.  The two men have been publicly accused and, because of their inept leader, they have lost their position in caucus without any form of investigation or due process to assess whether the allegations made against them are at all credible.

[crazy canuck]

What are Quebec polls showing?

I think GF missed your question.

But here is something from the Globe today.

According to a recent CROP poll, the NDP is now the first federal party in Quebec, ahead of the Liberals by 12 points with the francophone voters who control most of the province's ridings.

Mr. Mulcair was the most frequent choice as "best prime minister," ahead of Justin Trudeau by seven points. Moreover, the NDP is eating away the last support the Bloc Québécois clung to after the 2011 election rout. Under the lacklustre leadership of hard-line independence advocate Mario Beaulieu, the Bloc is down to just 14 per cent support, two points behind the chronically unpopular federal Conservatives. CROP's poll shows that the Bloc can't even count on a majority of Parti Québécois voters – 31 per cent of those intend to vote for the New Democrats, 18 per cent for the Liberals and 7 per cent for the Conservatives.

[Jacob]

What are Quebec polls showing?

I think GF missed your question.

But here is something from the Globe today.

According to a recent CROP poll, the NDP is now the first federal party in Quebec, ahead of the Liberals by 12 points with the francophone voters who control most of the province's ridings.

Mr. Mulcair was the most frequent choice as "best prime minister," ahead of Justin Trudeau by seven points. Moreover, the NDP is eating away the last support the Bloc Québécois clung to after the 2011 election rout. Under the lacklustre leadership of hard-line independence advocate Mario Beaulieu, the Bloc is down to just 14 per cent support, two points behind the chronically unpopular federal Conservatives. CROP's poll shows that the Bloc can't even count on a majority of Parti Québécois voters – 31 per cent of those intend to vote for the New Democrats, 18 per cent for the Liberals and 7 per cent for the Conservatives.

Interesting.

[Josephus]

very interesting.

[Malthus]

Yeah, this is getting beyond bizarre.  The two men have been publicly accused and, because of their inept leader, they have lost their position in caucus without any form of investigation or due process to assess whether the allegations made against them are at all credible.

More - it looks like such an investigation isn't even possible, as the potential complainants are not pursuing formal complaints.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/11/19/no_misconduct_investigation_unless_ndp_mps_involved_speaker_says.html#

This leaves the two ex-Liberal MPs high and dry. 

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, one of them is perfectly willing to tell her story to the media but she is not prepared to make an actual complaint that would involve an investigation of merits of the complaint.  Even those who adore Justin must have some doubt now - at least one would hope.

[Jacob]

Yeah, one of them is perfectly willing to tell her story to the media but she is not prepared to make an actual complaint that would involve an investigation of merits of the complaint.  Even those who adore Justin must have some doubt now - at least one would hope.

For sure. Though I've heard it suggested that the NDP basically set him up for a no-win situation.

... though that doesn't really help Trudeau if you think about it, because how you conduct yourself in response to being set up in a no win situation is pretty important.

I guess the question is how much staying power this issue has.

[Malthus]

Yeah, one of them is perfectly willing to tell her story to the media but she is not prepared to make an actual complaint that would involve an investigation of merits of the complaint.  Even those who adore Justin must have some doubt now - at least one would hope.

For sure. Though I've heard it suggested that the NDP basically set him up for a no-win situation.

... though that doesn't really help Trudeau if you think about it, because how you conduct yourself in response to being set up in a no win situation is pretty important.

If true, it also doesn't reflect well on the NDP, using accusations of sexual assault as political ammo against another party. That's pretty low.

I guess the question is how much staying power this issue has.

I would imagine quite a bit - how will the Libs deal with these two MPs? Are they out of the party forever? What happens when they run in the next elections? Will the Libs run people against them?

[Jacob]

If true, it also doesn't reflect well on the NDP, using accusations of sexual assault as political ammo against another party. That's pretty low.

Yeah, I think there's more than one fuck up in all of this, one way or the other. Works out well for the Conservatives though.

I would imagine quite a bit - how will the Libs deal with these two MPs? Are they out of the party forever? What happens when they run in the next elections? Will the Libs run people against them?

Yeah, it doesn't seem theoretically possible to handle it deftly and wrap it up quick; though given what's come before, it doesn't seem particularly likely.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, one of them is perfectly willing to tell her story to the media but she is not prepared to make an actual complaint that would involve an investigation of merits of the complaint.  Even those who adore Justin must have some doubt now - at least one would hope.

For sure. Though I've heard it suggested that the NDP basically set him up for a no-win situation.

... though that doesn't really help Trudeau if you think about it, because how you conduct yourself in response to being set up in a no win situation is pretty important.

I guess the question is how much staying power this issue has.

As much as I like to dislike the NDP, I think it highly unlikely the NDP would stoop to such a thing.  And besides, who could possibly have predicted that Justin would react in such a bone headed way.  What Justin should have done is very clear and since we discussed that at the time I wont go over that ground. 

However, as you say, even if the NDP were craftly enough to try to engineer this whole thing (and you have to be a huge conspiracy theory enthusiast to buy into that) it was still Justin who made it a no win proposition by reacting the way he did.

I agree with Malthus that this isnt going to go away because, as a practical matter, it can't.  Two men's lives have been effectively destroyed and have no forum in which to defend themselves because Justin decided that he would act without knowing what he was doing.