[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

I think there's some merit to the Globe article, but I don't think it's all that novel. I think in many elections people have shied away from voting NDP for that reason. I know I have. In my riding there have been times where I thought the only candidate capable of defeating the conservative is the Liberal, in which case I would vote for that candidate. But generally, as well, there's a strong sense that voting NDP is a waste of a vote. Ironically, that might be why they did so well last time around, because it was a protest vote.

Agreed, except that this is the first election where they are going in as the opposition party.  And there is a complete boob as Liberal leader.  Its a convergence of events that seems to lead to the conclusion that if the NDP can't win now they are always going to be the third party.

[Josephus]

But they're not even polling well these days are they? I still think to the average, that is to say, not particularly intelligent, Canadian, the NDP is just a fringe party that wants to tax you and give your money to welfare people.

[Barrister]

But they're not even polling well these days are they? I still think to the average, that is to say, not particularly intelligent, Canadian, the NDP is just a fringe party that wants to tax you and give your money to welfare people.

As a Manitoban, you know, the place that has had 15 years of NDP government, that sounds like a pretty accurate summation of NDP philosophy.

[Ancient Demon]

But they're not even polling well these days are they? I still think to the average, that is to say, not particularly intelligent, Canadian, the NDP is just a fringe party that wants to tax you and give your money to welfare people.

As a Manitoban, you know, the place that has had 15 years of NDP government, that sounds like a pretty accurate summation of NDP philosophy.

As a Manitoban, I agree.

[Josephus]

I just read an interesting op-ed. It argues that the Conservatives are to blame, if that's the word, for Trudeau's gains and the NDP's failings. If you look at the by-election results in my neighbourly riding of Oshawa-Whitby, the NDP only got 8 per cent of the vote. Anti-Conservative votes, normally split between the two, went overwhelmingly Liberal. Part of the reason for this, Chantal Hebert argues, is the Conservatives have made Trudeau the man to beat in the next election and pretty much marginalized the leader of the opposition-- who most Canadian would be surprised to learn is Mulcair, not Trudeau. If this trend, and arguably, one by-election is not a trend, but look how poorly NDP candidates did in the mayoral election in Toronto, if this trend continues across the GTA and, especially Quebec where most of you would agree the results of the last election are unlikely to be repeated, then a Liberal majority is not out of the question

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/11/21/conservatives_inadvertently_give_justin_trudeau_a_leg_up_hbert.html

[Jacob]

Yeah, the narrative is very much that if you're tired of the Conservatives, Trudeau is your guy. Mulcair is only for people who are into NDP leftism.

Whether that's down to Canadians preferring the Liberal party to the NDP on a high level, to Trudeau's own skills and name, to the Conservative's reaction to Trudeau, to Mulcair's failings, or something else, I'm not sure.

But yeah, gut instinct, if you're tired of Harper and want to vote him out, then Trudeau's your guy not Mulcair.

[Grey Fox]

However the Libs are not polling above the NDP in Quebec.

The really interesting thing about Quebec Federal polling is how the BQ is still dead.

[Josephus]

What are Quebec polls showing?

[crazy canuck]

I think Hebert is correct that the Cons have to be careful what they wish for but frankly I think an NDP with strong support would be a much more formidable adversary on the election trail.  Justin is going to put his foot in his mouth more than he already has in the run up to the election.  Mulcair won't.  If the elelctorate is so anti-Conservative at this point that they are prepared to elect Justin then the Cons never stood a chance anyway.

[Jacob]

If the elelctorate is so anti-Conservative at this point that they are prepared to elect Justin then the Cons never stood a chance anyway.

[Josephus]

The other thing CC, and I've mentioned this point before, and I'm not being faceitious, the average voter is not the smartest, nor best informed person in the world...heck they don't read papers. I think Justin Trudeau carries a brand name. He's cute ,young, charismatic. I think  that goes a long way. I think he can gain momentum in a campaign. A couple goof ups will be forgiven. It's only if he does something big that the media start to focus on that he can slip. But hell, the election is a year away. Anything can happen. Latest polls do show Harper gaining some ground.

[crazy canuck]

The other thing CC, and I've mentioned this point before, and I'm not being faceitious, the average voter is not the smartest, nor best informed person in the world...heck they don't read papers. I think Justin Trudeau carries a brand name. He's cute ,young, charismatic. I think  that goes a long way. I think he can gain momentum in a campaign. A couple goof ups will be forgiven. It's only if he does something big that the media start to focus on that he can slip. But hell, the election is a year away. Anything can happen. Latest polls do show Harper gaining some ground.

You make a good point.  I bet you never thought you would hear me say this but I would much prefer to see a PM Mulcair than a PM Justin if the Cons are defeated. But the tea leaves dont appear to be falling that way atm.

[Neil]

I think Hebert is correct that the Cons have to be careful what they wish for but frankly I think an NDP with strong support would be a much more formidable adversary on the election trail.  Justin is going to put his foot in his mouth more than he already has in the run up to the election.  Mulcair won't.  If the elelctorate is so anti-Conservative at this point that they are prepared to elect Justin then the Cons never stood a chance anyway.

One wonders though.  After all 'Liberal' is still a brand with more positive association with more people than 'NDP'.  It's just that a lot of those people are currently voting Conservative.

I definitely think that Mulcair is better able to be prime minister than Trudeau, but I'm not sure people would weigh the NDP platform as better than the Liberal one, and the NDP does have a certain amount of crazy baggage.

[Josephus]

People used to say that about Broadbent as well. He scored high on the "guy we want to see as prime minister" polls...but not his party

[Jacob]

People used to say that about Broadbent as well. He scored high on the "guy we want to see as prime minister" polls...but not his party

Yeah, the NDP's problem is that some of their most vocal supporters include the not-quite-sensible-but-loud-left-fringers and the that-annoyingly-selfrighteous-dude-who-thinks-he-understands-more-than-he-does and those can be quite off-putting whether or not they influence the actual governance. It's not that the other parties don't have off-putting supporters, but they may be off-putting to smaller constituencies.