[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

I find it utterly crazy that Canada is talking about phasing out its oil sand industry due to climate change.  It is such a small part of the market.  Other oil producers will simply increase production to replace Canadian oil.  Total world oil production will remain more or less the same.

he isnt.  He is talking about phasing out the oil sands which is a very different thing from conventional oil exploitation.

[Valmy]

Frankly BB, I am not sure why this is such a big deal.  As you pointed out he is not suggesting that they should be shut down immediately.  But certainly a long term plan to phase them out makes good sense.

Because threatening to phase out an entire industry is a big deal no matter how much sense it might make? Hell Tyr is still mad about the coal thing.

[viper37]

It shows Trudeau just doesn't "get" Alberta.

The oil sands are a vital part of the economy here.  They've driven by over a hundred billion dollars of investment.  It employs tens, if not hundred of thousands of people.  It's not something we want "phased out" of existence in 20 or even one hundred years.

Even the hated NDP has embraced the oil sands.  They've imposed a carbon tax to give us "social license".  They recognize we should cost in the environmental effects, but oil sands will be an important part of the province for the forseeable future.


Look, industries changes.  Maybe in time the oil sands production will stop.  But it will stop because of economic factors, not because the PM decides we're going to "phase them out".

The automobile industry may well close in Canada as well, what with ride sharing, self-driving cars, increased public transit and of course increasing manufacturing in low-cost countries.  But Ontario would rightly lose it's shit if Trudeau said we were going to "phase out" the automobile industry.

the same could be said about the coal industry for many places in the US.  In Montreal and in the Eastern Townships, the tobacco industry was once thriving.  A lot of my grand-aunts and uncles moved from around here to work in the tobacco industry, either the fields or the plants.  Nowadays, it's not much of an industry anymore.

Eventually, our need for oil will go down.  Just like natural gaz has replaced coal, something unforeseen 50 years ago. It's better to think about it now and phase out of the industry, gradually, by searching for long term solutions rather than wake up one day to see all oil fields shut down, like the coal mines, for lack of demand.

If that is really the plan of the Liberals, than I would support it.  But they're Liberals.  So, they're liars and thieves.  All they do is talk the good talk, just like Trump, telling their stupid voters what they want to hear.  That's why Josephus is right in asking how many Ontarians vs how many Albertans voted for that moron. 

He's only making a speech to consolidate his voting base and divert attention from his total lack of ethics.  Liberal strategy 101: The best defense is a good offense.

[viper37]

Ah, so in governing for all Canadians Trudeau should do nothing to appeal "certain environmental activists", even if the sentiment that they express - that Albertan oil development has significant environmental impact - is shared by a large number of Canadians.

Let's be totally honest here.  If Harper was in power, and he had plans to severely limit immigration because anti-immigration sentiment are strong in certain parts of Canada, would you say he was justified of governing for all Canadians then?

Imho, the role of the government is to educate its population, to help them differentiate perceptions from realities.

It is true that oil sands produces a little more greenhouse gaz than regular oil production.  Now, are there ways to mitigate the environmental costs without the government footing the bill?  Probably so.  If that is the case, then the industry should be forced to clean its act, to pay for the pollution it produces, while at the same time, we seek an alternative.

Alas, that isn't the Liberal's plan.  Nor is it the NDP (Fed), as they would simply shut down the oil fields of Alberta and increase our taxes.  The Conservative tried carbon capture, but there wasn't enough funds allocated to research to really measure its efficiency.  We might just delay the problem with that method.

[Josephus]

As one who works in print media, i sympathize with all those who find themselves on the wrong side of the labour market.

[viper37]

Frankly BB, I am not sure why this is such a big deal.  As you pointed out he is not suggesting that they should be shut down immediately.  But certainly a long term plan to phase them out makes good sense.

Because threatening to phase out an entire industry is a big deal no matter how much sense it might make? Hell Tyr is still mad about the coal thing.

coal was replaced by cheap natural gaz.  Not by government regulations.

[viper37]

As one who works in print media, i sympathize with all those who find themselves on the wrong side of the labour market.

Has the situation stabilized or are you still threatened by Gawker-like web sites?  I know in Quebec, La Presse, the biggest newspaper has stopped its printing edition during week-days, it only publishes on Saturdays, the rest of the week is for their website and their phone app (La Presse+, free).  It seems promising so far. 

Their former regional newspaper have been sold and they still share content with the new owner who produces a printed edition of each newspaper and things don't look too bad either for them.

[Valmy]

coal was replaced by cheap natural gaz.  Not by government regulations.

Government regulations played/are playing a part in that. But the point I was making was a political one not a practical one

[viper37]

Government regulations played/are playing a part in that. But the point I was making was a political one not a practical one

Ok, Trump is apparently coal friendly, and he certainly has people who don't believe in climate change.
So, by next month, we should see a resurgence of the coal industry in certain parts of your country?  US States will flock to re-convert their natural gaz electricity plants to coal plants?

[Valmy]

Ok, Trump is apparently coal friendly, and he certainly has people who don't believe in climate change.
So, by next month, we should see a resurgence of the coal industry in certain parts of your country?  US States will flock to re-convert their natural gaz electricity plants to coal plants?

No. Because the energy industry is a very slow moving beast and tends to make plans based on long-term projections. The future for coal doesn't look great right now.

But one cannot deny that carbon policies in certain parts of the country, and the world, are not great news for coal producers even if they did not have competition from gas.

[crazy canuck]

Frankly BB, I am not sure why this is such a big deal.  As you pointed out he is not suggesting that they should be shut down immediately.  But certainly a long term plan to phase them out makes good sense.

Because threatening to phase out an entire industry is a big deal no matter how much sense it might make? Hell Tyr is still mad about the coal thing.

The oil sands are not the entire oil industry.  If you had read just one post above yours you would have learned that before you posted 

[viper37]

But one cannot deny that carbon policies in certain parts of the country, and the world, are not great news for coal producers even if they did not have competition from gas.

Afaik, there were no regulations for coal in Canada.  By the time there were a few regulations about clean air, coal plants were already transformed.

[Valmy]

Ok. Announcing that a major source of jobs and income is going to be phased out is going to politically make some people unhappy no matter how justified or strategic that phasing out is.

[Jacob]

Let's be totally honest here.  If Harper was in power, and he had plans to severely limit immigration because anti-immigration sentiment are strong in certain parts of Canada, would you say he was justified of governing for all Canadians then?

"Governing for all Canadians" wasn't my argument, it was BBs

[crazy canuck]

Ok. Announcing that a major source of jobs and income is going to be phased out is going to politically make some people unhappy no matter how justified or strategic that phasing out is.

I agree.  And that is what makes it hard to take BB's gripe more seriously.