Israel-Hamas War 2023

[Norgy]

I dunno. I realise that getting rid of Hamas is vital both for the Israelis and the Arabs. But this?

If it was Serbians going at it in Bosnia or Kosovo, the world would be up in arms.
Now it is more like a shrug, and "Hey let them keep at it".

[Zoupa]

I like Bill burr's joke here. You gotta work around it.

[Razgovory]

I dunno. I realise that getting rid of Hamas is vital both for the Israelis and the Arabs. But this?

If it was Serbians going at it in Bosnia or Kosovo, the world would be up in arms.
Now it is more like a shrug, and "Hey let them keep at it".

The world seems up in arms about this.  When the Serbs were going at in Bosnia and Serbia the US tried to stop them.  I remember protests about that.

[grumbler]

I was under the impression that continued acts of perfidy with protected status symbols negated the protected status of the symbols.  If not the army that attacks in ambulances rather than tanks with children tied to the top automatically wins.

That only applies when there is a government able to dictate the use/non-use of the protected-status symbols and the nation that accuses the other side of perfidy makes a formal announcement.  I'm not 100% sure that caveat still applies.

[Razgovory]

Insurgent groups must still abide by the laws of war, they must wear identifiable insignia etc.  Israel has called out Hamas on using hospitals and ambulances before.  If the laws of war favor the side that breaks them, then they are useless.

[Razgovory]

The goalposts will move, so Raz will never admit it even when there actually is ethnic cleansing. Israel hasn't killed everyone quickly enough, so it can't be that bad, or something.

I'll take that bet.

Me too.  I will put down 1k, even money, that I will admit there is ethic cleansing where there actually is ethnic cleansing.  

[Iormlund]

There are gradations of potential truth that lie between "the Israelis are trying to kill all Palestinians" and "Israel is completely innocent in the deaths of 40,000+ civilians." Israel pretty clearly uses disproportionate force in at least some cases (a war crime) and it's ROE that allows its soldiers/airmen to ignore at whim the protected status of medical and aid workers is also a war crime.

Yes, it sucks that Hamas uses human shields and sometimes engages in perfidy with protected status symbols, but war sucks in many ways. A nation is bound by the Geneva conventions even when its opponents are not.

Problem is, I'd argue it was precisely the higher tolerance for collateral damage that cut the Lebanon campaign short compared to say, 2006. Finally unable to hide behind civilians, the higher echelons of Hizbollah were just obliterated. Similar story with the beeper thing, which was apparently a war crime, yet key to the campaign.

If anything I suspect the combination of the genocide claims and the success in Lebanon has made Israel far more likely to just disregard outside opinion.

[Valmy]

The goalposts will move, so Raz will never admit it even when there actually is ethnic cleansing. Israel hasn't killed everyone quickly enough, so it can't be that bad, or something.

I'll take that bet.

Me too.  I will put down 1k, even money, that I will admit there is ethic cleansing where there actually is ethnic cleansing. 

Good. I have no doubt.

[Razgovory]

Will you take me up on the bet?

[Valmy]

Will you take me up on the bet?

Me? No. I just said I have no doubt. Why would I bet against something I have no doubt would happen.

I believe in Raz

[viper37]

The goalposts will move, so Raz will never admit it even when there actually is ethnic cleansing. Israel hasn't killed everyone quickly enough, so it can't be that bad, or something.

I'll take that bet.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/11/russia-recruiting-far-right-extremists-attacks-west-putin/

So, it came as a huge surprise when Ya'alon, who served as a commander of the Israeli army's West Bank Division and head of the military's Central Command – roles which preserve and strengthen Israel's occupation in violation of international law - accused the Israeli government of committing ethnic cleansing in Gaza. 

"There is no Beit Lahia, there is no Beit Hanoun. They [Israeli soldiers] are operating in Jabalia and are essentially clearing the area of Arabs," Ya'alon said in an interview with the Israeli channel Democrat TV.

"The path we are being dragged down is occupation, annexation and ethnic cleansing in the Gaza Strip - population transfer, call it what you want, and Jewish settlements," he added.

You lost, pay up.  Former IDF commander says it's ethnic cleansing, UN says it's ethnic cleansing.  Only Bibi says it's not, yet he's on camera with Donald Trump planning the eviction of everyone in Gaza to make room for playa Gaza.

[viper37]

I dunno. I realise that getting rid of Hamas is vital both for the Israelis and the Arabs.

Sure it's vital.  But then again, Bibi and the Israeli govt nurtured Hamas growth.  They needed it.  Until now.  The only country who could apply enough pressure to hold Israel back was the US.

[Admiral Yi]

You lost, pay up.  Former IDF commander says it's ethnic cleansing, UN says it's ethnic cleansing.  Only Bibi says it's not, yet he's on camera with Donald Trump planning the eviction of everyone in Gaza to make room for playa Gaza.

No bet was made.  There is nothing to lose and nothing to pay up.

I am aware of many people other than Bibi who say it's not ethnic cleansing: Raz, me, Valmy.  Solymir agreed ethnic cleansing is not taking place with the wording of his prediction. "When it actually takes place."  Your star Israeli witness said Israel is being dragged down the path to ethnic cleansing, which means ethnic cleansing is something that might or might not happen in the future.

Which begs the question of how will we know ethnic cleansing has taken place.  I suggest looking at historical examples.  In Republika Srbska there are no Bosnians left AFAIK.  No Germans in the Sudetenland.  No Chinese left in South Korea.  A few Cherokee managed to hunker down in the mountains and avoided being ethnically cleansed to Oklahoma.  Most Tutsis survived the attempted mass murder so I would call that failed ethnic cleansing.  In other words, all or virtually all of the victim group has to be compelled to leave through threat of violence to qualify as ethnic cleansing.  If anyone wants to propose an alternative definition of ethnic cleansing I'm happy to listen and possibly learn from them.  I'm less interested in arguments that reduce to "I'm angry and my friends are angry so it's ethnic cleansing."

[Zoupa]

I struggle to see how the colonization of the west bank is not ethnic cleansing.

[Razgovory]

As I said, I'm willing to make the bet.  Since Solmyr proposed it, I'll let him be the arbitrator.  If Solmyr says that is ethnic cleansing and I agree with him, you give me money.  C'mon guys, put your money where your mouth is.  1K even money.  American dollars: No Quebeci pesos or whatever you have up there.