News:

And we're back!

Main Menu

Israel-Hamas War 2023

Started by Zanza, October 07, 2023, 04:56:14 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: crazy canuck on July 30, 2024, 02:27:56 PMWhat I think you are getting at is geographical proximity.  But I am not sure that makes sense either given the proximity of other enemies of Israel.

Of course geographic proximity matters.  The fact that other enemies are close makes it more urgent, not less.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

crazy canuck

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 30, 2024, 05:23:19 PMCC, BB: The Taliban didn't murder thousands of Americans. Not sure where that comes from.  The Taliban killed American troops in Afghanistan but that is not the same thing. The Taliban provided sanctuary to the organization responsible for 9/11. But that is also not the same thing.  There isn't a perfect analogy for the role of Taliban in 9/11 and what happened in Gaza.  But as an example, Qatar provides sanctuary, financial support, and refuge for Hamas leaders and gives them access to diplomatic assets and media. Yet Israel is not hostile to Qatar and has sought diplomatic engagement with them.

It's too bad no American officials made that kind of fine distinction when the US and it's allies invaded Afghanistan.


viper37

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 30, 2024, 05:23:19 PMCC, BB: The Taliban didn't murder thousands of Americans. Not sure where that comes from.  The Taliban killed American troops in Afghanistan but that is not the same thing. The Taliban provided sanctuary to the organization responsible for 9/11. But that is also not the same thing.  There isn't a perfect analogy for the role of Taliban in 9/11 and what happened in Gaza.  But as an example, Qatar provides sanctuary, financial support, and refuge for Hamas leaders and gives them access to diplomatic assets and media. Yet Israel is not hostile to Qatar and has sought diplomatic engagement with them.

The same way the US has always been on friendly terms with Saudi Arabia which has a complicated history with Al Queida.

Israel needs Qatar. Just like it needs Egypt, for other reasons.  It doesn't need Syria or Lebanon though.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

Admiral Yi

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 30, 2024, 11:55:17 AMIf the Taliban had crossed the (non-existent) border with California and murdered thousands of Americans, then they wouldn't be in control of anything. They would not exist anymore as a meaningful organization.

Japan murdered thousands of Americans and still exist as a meaningful organization.

HVC

Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 30, 2024, 08:39:43 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 30, 2024, 11:55:17 AMIf the Taliban had crossed the (non-existent) border with California and murdered thousands of Americans, then they wouldn't be in control of anything. They would not exist anymore as a meaningful organization.

Japan murdered thousands of Americans and still exist as a meaningful organization.

Yeah, but they don't live in the holy land.
Being lazy is bad; unless you still get what you want, then it's called "patience".
Hubris must be punished. Severely.

Razgovory

Israelis just whacked a top Hamas guy.  In Iran.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 30, 2024, 08:39:43 PMJapan murdered thousands of Americans and still exist as a meaningful organization.

The militarist government of Japan prosecuted that war.  And America's response was the most devastating war it ever fought, demanding unconditional surrender, and culminating in the total destruction of Japan's cities and 2 nuclear strikes. The persons judged responsible for waging aggressive war were hanged or imprisoned.

If the American war against Japan were the relevant standard, Israel's war in Gaza would look a lot more brutal than it is now.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

grumbler

Longer-term there will surely be some sort of PA fig leaf authority established in Gaza to allow Israel to withdraw.  Hamas will still be pulling the strings, though.

Israel cannot destroy Hamas.  Attacking Hamas just gives Hamas more legitimacy in the eyes of Palestinians.  The reactions of the relatives of all the Gazan civilians killed is not going to be "live and let live."
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

OttoVonBismarck

The U.S. can't destroy the Italian mafia, hence the Italian mafia pulls the strings and runs the government.

Oh wait, that isn't true because it is dumb.

Inability to completely destroy a criminal organization does not mean that organization defaults to controlling the government. The West Bank has at least a dozen Palestinian terror groups, none pull the strings or run the government, none can really be completely stamped out--at a certain level of organization (or disorganization) these groups are just angry men hiding in basements, not really a way to erase that.

Political control requires military control. Israel can absolutely deny that to Hamas, unless we believe there is something magical about Gaza that makes it different from the West Bank today where Israel denies terror groups control, or Gaza itself for the 30 year period when Israel directly controlled it.

Tamas

Quote from: grumbler on July 31, 2024, 07:37:02 AMLonger-term there will surely be some sort of PA fig leaf authority established in Gaza to allow Israel to withdraw.  Hamas will still be pulling the strings, though.

Israel cannot destroy Hamas.  Attacking Hamas just gives Hamas more legitimacy in the eyes of Palestinians.  The reactions of the relatives of all the Gazan civilians killed is not going to be "live and let live."

I do wonder if this understanding comes from western democracies dookg counter insurgency. Might not be so true when there is little restraint on the occupying force. After all the nazus while never went away as an ideology and a draw for a certain type of people, they have been thoroughly discredited as a governing force through the use of (nearly) unrestricted violence and destruction by the occupying forces,to the extent that it has taken 30 years post-occupation for a political force resembling them to come back into the picture.

OttoVonBismarck

It is predicated on a lot of false assumptions--one of the main ones is that Israel's activities in the region are comparable to distant "overseas deployments" in the United States history. This isn't an overseas deployment, Israel has to live where this is going on.

It also suggests, falsely, that inability to 100% destroy an ideology means that ideology inevitably controls that territory. That is such a silly premise that it doesn't bear a ton of time debunking--but the example you cite about Nazis is instructive. Nazi ideology has never been destroyed, but Nazi government certainly was.

Threviel

If the nazis hadn't totally lost legitimacy in the eyes of the Germans they would in all probability hade made a comeback after the war. Different name, different leader, different policies, still nazi's at the core.

Hamas has gained legitimacy so far AFAICT.

viper37

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on July 31, 2024, 02:05:08 AMThe persons judged responsible for waging aggressive war were hanged or imprisoned.
What happened to the Emperor of Japan?
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

viper37

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on July 31, 2024, 07:39:31 AMThe U.S. can't destroy the Italian mafia, hence the Italian mafia pulls the strings and runs the government.
What you're saying is the US is currently bombing Italian cities, schools, churches, hospitals and foreign workers helping the civilians?

The things I learn reading Languish! :)
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

crazy canuck

Quote from: grumbler on July 31, 2024, 07:37:02 AMLonger-term there will surely be some sort of PA fig leaf authority established in Gaza to allow Israel to withdraw.  Hamas will still be pulling the strings, though.

Israel cannot destroy Hamas.  Attacking Hamas just gives Hamas more legitimacy in the eyes of Palestinians.  The reactions of the relatives of all the Gazan civilians killed is not going to be "live and let live."

Yes, this is a much more realistic assessment.