2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[crazy canuck]

I don't know if Kamala will win, but for the first time in months I feel hopeful. I don't know how long that will last, but gods does it feel nice to finally left out a little of the breath I wasn't fully aware I was holding.

I think you speak for us all

[Sheilbh]

If what means what you think it means?
Seems he was pretty gung ho no addressing any doubts he's definitely running until suddenly it turns out all the chatter from others was right.

As DG says he has to.

And I think he probably believed it - and maybe still does. I suspect him and his people will resent this hugely and probably still think they are best placed to win.

All that chatter was the sound of various other forces in the Democratic party - grandees like Clinton and Obama, their teams, other elected officials, donors etc - trying to persuade Biden otherwise and, occasionally, having to leak to increase the pressure.

Edit: Also interesting to see how he'll describe this. Given how effectively they squashed other primary challengers I don't think he can use the same sort of line LBJ did and if it is health it will raise the (fair) question of who's running the administration now? It's something I've wondered just seeing him on the news clearly (like most other people of his age) have good and bad days.

I think purely politically it might help Harris too.

[Admiral Yi]

Given how effectively they squashed other primary challengers

  What in the world are you talking about?

[Sheilbh]

What in the world are you talking about?

There was lots of talk about Biden's age and even though he'd announced he would run again, of primary challengers (like 1980 and 1968).

Biden's team and the Democrats were very effective in shutting that down and convincing anyone who might have considered it not to. (Arguably - as with Clinton in 2016 - the Democrats don't make their best decisions when they're in "get on the team" mode...)

[Solmyr]

OvB looking like a real dumbass now. 

Just now?

[Admiral Yi]

Biden's team and the Democrats were very effective in shutting that down and convincing anyone who might have considered it not to.

What in the world are you talking about?

Were there actual conversations where some random dude said "I'm thinking about running in the primary" and Teh Team and Teh Democrats said "you should not b/c of X, Y, and Z?"  Or maybe "there's a possible cabinet seat in it for you wink wink?"

Or are we relitigating Bernie v Clinton in which Teh Democrats cheated Bernie out of the nomination?

[crazy canuck]

What in the world are you talking about?

There was lots of talk about Biden's age and even though he'd announced he would run again, of primary challengers (like 1980 and 1968).

Biden's team and the Democrats were very effective in shutting that down and convincing anyone who might have considered it not to. (Arguably - as with Clinton in 2016 - the Democrats don't make their best decisions when they're in "get on the team" mode...)

I think you may know something. The rest of us don't because I didn't hear anything about anyone thinking about running who was subsequently dissuaded from doing so.

It's more accurate to say that nobody did step up to potentially challenge him. 

[Sheilbh]

What in the world are you talking about?

Were there actual conversations where some random dude said "I'm thinking about running in the primary" and Teh Team and Teh Democrats said "you should not b/c of X, Y, and Z?"  Or maybe "there's a possible cabinet seat in it for you wink wink?"

All I'm saying is literally what was being reported a year or two ago. Most Americans didn't want Biden to run again. There were people talking about his age then as well. There was lots of "chatter" about it.

It was also reported that Biden's team were strongly pushing against anyone even thinking of challenging before Biden's decision was made public and once he announced he was running the Democrats were very good at dissuading anyone from challenging - for good reasons like it's bad for a President for re-election, it would divide the party etc.

But I also think it would have probably exposed Biden's weaknesses earlier and if one of them had done a bit better than expected have provided him with the LBJ route out. It is more difficult after having spent the last week saying him stepping down would be an insult to millions of primary voters to now say it's obvious he doesn't have the support of his party - which leaves health (and "are you fit to do the job now?").

Or are we relitigating Bernie v Clinton in which Teh Democrats cheated Bernie out of the nomination?

No I don't know where you got the idea I was a Bernie fan.

But generally the Clinton campaign was very, very effective at dissuading lots of potential nominees with their inevitability and "it's her turn" - which is what they tried to do in 2008 until Obama announced. In 2016 it worked and it was smart politics for them - but I think not having a full field (which is what you'd expect at the end of a two-term presidency with the VP not standing) did lead to choosing a very poor candidate.

If anything, I'm relitigating Martin O'Malley

Edit: All of which makes me think that having made a catastrophic decision a year ago and then told everyone to get on board. The Democrats might be better to have an open convention than a fait accompli - despite quite liking Harris. I think it's quite striking that, unlike Biden's statement or the Clintons', Obama's doesn't endorse Harris but calls for the party to "create a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges".

[frunk]

I think this is a disastrous decision, but I'll be absolutely elated if I'm wrong.

[Sophie Scholl]

So... Harris/Cooper 2024?

[HVC]

I think this is a disastrous decision, but I'll be absolutely elated if I'm wrong.

I'm obviously no political genius (definitely not even a normal kind ) but I have some trepidations too. Kamala doesn't seem to be particularly liked. Seems like a replay of 2016. Unliked and unlikable female candidate against trump. She doesn't even seem to have a strong African American following that could bring in votes.  At least Biden had a winning record.

But what do I know.

[Jacob]

Yeah I worry that Kamela will collapse, but I hope I'm wrong.

[DGuller]

I really disliked it when in 2020 Biden declared that his VP would be a woman, and I guess it keeps reverberating now.  When you're this old, you should pick a candidate that is strongest on their own merits, because they may well have to run for the next term.  Disqualifying every male from consideration from the outset doesn't help you with making the best decision for that goal. 

I agree that Kamala Harris is not a good candidate, and is a preferred option only because the default one was so hopeless.  I really wish there were a way to debate and choose the strongest candidate, and not just go with a candidate that most probably feel is accidental.

[Josquius]

You'd think though the Democrats would have one competent woman amongst them.

[DGuller]

That said, if reporting is to be believed, Trump feared going up against Harris.  If there is one thing that Trump is legitimately good at in a non-backhanded way, it's understanding his political threats.  I remember many were wondering, including myself, why Trump would go to the trouble of smearing Joe Biden in the Ukraine affair, surely the guy in his late 70ies isn't a threat to him?  Turns out he was, and hopefully Trump is just as correct now about Harris as he was about Biden.