2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Tonitrus]

Let him.  The Lt Gov is the GOP candidate for the upcoming race.  If he does something too fascist-crazy, he'll likely backfire on himself, and Cooper will just come back to overturn it.  And it will automatically become a national story and make the national GOP look nutty.

[Sheilbh]

It's....squashing?  Collusion?

I imagine she says the exact same thing we say here.  Joe, we have a better chance with someone else.  The public has turned against you. Blah blah blah.

I imagine it's pretty similar in content. Possibly a little more fruity and less polite than we are

Again on how the exact same thing can be different things. Two junior employees who know each other well making an off-colour joke could be banter, a CEO making the same joke to an employee may well be harassment. Power matters, personal credibility/authority matters (I've totally forgotten it but there is a specific word for all of this) - it's not just what the content of the message is that's all equal for all 350million Americans.

On the upside, it really opens up the "look... the man is a demented old idiot, anyone can see it" line of attack against Trump.

Yeah - it might open up some uncomfortable questions but I think it is something you can do now. The way to do it might actually just be through events in a way. Get Harris out there day in, day out doing multiple events and drawing a visible contrast of energy v Trump. I also think that is one of the benefits of Biden stepping aside is simply having a nominee who can maintain a really active campaign schedule.

As Grumbler noted some of the economic numbers have turned a bit - so there is real wage growth and the numbers success may be starting to be felt by people in their lives. I wonder the extent to which Harris can associate with that and (in effect) associate Biden with the negative numbers of the last few years. I suppose it will be like the VP running at the end of a two term presidency in terms of balancing taking ownership of the previous record and trying to signify change - but it feels different because we know Biden wanted to carry on, but also he didn't win two elections which normally means things have gone pretty well (and I think they have on policy but the politics didn't work). I wonder if that means Harris has more space and maybe needs to be a bit more of a change candidate?

[Syt]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-reaction-biden-drops-out-kamala-harris/

Trump says he thinks Harris is "no better" than Biden in 2024 matchup

Former President Donald Trump told CBS News in a phone conversation on Sunday night that while he won't face President Biden on the ballot in November, the former president doesn't think it changes the race if he instead faces Vice President Kamala Harris, who Mr. Biden has backed for the nomination.

"I think she is no better than him," Trump said. "She could be far less competent, which is hard to believe."

Trump insisted that Harris is still tied to the Biden administration policies, which he believes are unpopular with Americans.

"The policies whether it's him or her wouldn't be any different," Trump said. "She was in charge of the border. She was the border czar, she was the worst ever. The worst ever. We had the worst border ever so that wouldn't matter."

Mr. Biden announced Sunday afternoon on social media that he is dropping out of the 2024 race, throwing his support behind Harris. Harris said it is her "intention is to earn and win this nomination."

The unprecedented announcement came after weeks of uncertainty after Mr. Biden's disastrous debate against Trump.

Trump called Mr. Biden's decision a "shock to our country," but added "we have a man in there that shouldn't be in there" so he believes it would overall be a "good thing for the country."

Trump also posted several times on social media on Sunday after Mr. Biden's announcement, writing that "we are forced to spend time and money" running against Mr. Biden and "now we have to start all over again."

"Shouldn't the Republican Party be reimbursed for fraud in that everybody around Joe, including his doctors and the Fake News Media, knew he was not capable of running for, or being, President?" Trump wrote.

Trump also said he would no longer be participating in the planned September debate. Harris had already committed to a vice-presidential debate on CBS News in August, although the Trump campaign would not do the same, saying last week that they had no idea who the vice-presidential nominee would be.

A Trump campaign official said Sunday that Democrats are "in chaos," and the campaign is ready and full speed ahead for the November election.

[garbon]

I take it more Trumpish bleating?

[Admiral Yi]

I imagine it's pretty similar in content. Possibly a little more fruity and less polite than we are

Again on how the exact same thing can be different things. Two junior employees who know each other well making an off-colour joke could be banter, a CEO making the same joke to an employee may well be harassment. Power matters, personal credibility/authority matters (I've totally forgotten it but there is a specific word for all of this) - it's not just what the content of the message is that's all equal for all 350million Americans.

But Teh Team and Teh Democrats are not talking to subordinates.  They're talking to peers.  More often superiors, if a White House operative is talking to a Congressman, Senator, or Governor, which is the nominee pool

[jimmy olsen]

This is reassuring. Black women are the heart of the democratic party


https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/joe-biden-drops-out-of-presidential-race-live-updates.html#a
https://x.com/kat__stafford/status/1815231785501966388

Cannot overstate how impactful this is: About 40,000 Black women on the Win with Black Women zoom call in support of Vice President Kamala Harris.

[Norgy]

I'll give Trump that he is awfully quotable. There really is no filter or media advisor, is there?
I remember us arguing about Fox News back in the day. Now here we are. Thanks!

[Sheilbh]

But Teh Team and Teh Democrats are not talking to subordinates.  They're talking to peers.  More often superiors, if a White House operative is talking to a Congressman, Senator, or Governor, which is the nominee pool

In a legal or a formalist sense but I think that's very narrow and not how politics works, even in, for example working in a private company that is "political".

Power's fluid and situational - it's why a lame duck President can do less. The job description doesn't change, but they've got less power - they're not the coming thing, they won't have patronage to exercise, their networks will be looking to move on. It's also why, say, a retiring Representative or Senator might ironically in some ways have more power - they're less dependent.

But also politics is fundamentally relational. It's why LBJ is possibly the most effective Senate Majority Leader and legislatively one of the most effective Presidents. Those jobs weren't different for him than other officeholders. Instead, he had a genius for knowing how to get people to do things - who needed flattery and love, or respect and deference, or a threat, or just a brow-beating. It's also the genius of Robert Caro because that stuff is the core of politics but it's not in the minutes and Caro has managed to capture it for him.

And there's the sort of machine side to it. The Clintons are still influential in Democratic politics not because of any formal role they hold but because of their networks of former aides and staffers larded through the party, also their connections with other senior leaders formed over decades and donors. Similarly I've read a big part of McConnell's effectiveness is that he has one of the most effective fundraising machines in American politics. Similarly we don't know about J Edgar Hoover's personal files (burned by his secretary within hours of his death) so it may all have been blackmail, but he encouraged FBI men who were shaped by him and loyal to him to absolutely take up jobs as lawyers or aides to, say, the Senate Judiciary Committee or key Senators or Congressmen. That network was a key part of his power politically which was often more than his boss's formally/legally.

It's why the most important thing for Secretary of State is their relationship with the White House even though the job is unchanged. When they go abroad are they understood as someone who is truly speaking on behalf of the Administration and able to shape policy (I think this is true of Blinken, for example) or not (Colin Powell).

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally looks like they are all rallying around Harris for a coronation v some form of competition.

Might be the right decision in the context - although my instinct is that Obama's right and they should have tried to create some process to have a form of open competition and let others come forward.

[Valmy]

Yeah I guess I thought there would be a competition. The Democrats almost seem scared to see what their base wants.

I think Kamala would probably win anyway but let's at least spend the weeks before the convention discussing the options.

[garbon]

I don't see many benefits to a competition. As in if a candidate defeats Kamala then we just fsll into division and angst. We need to minimize this limbo period. Also she was on the ticket when people voted for Biden in the primary so it isn't like she wasn't part of that.

[crazy canuck]

I don't see many benefits to a competition. As in if a candidate defeats Kamala then we just fsll into division and angst. We need to minimize this limbo period. Also she was on the ticket when people voted for Biden in the primary so it isn't like she wasn't part of that.

Yeah, I hope the party just rallies around her and pushes toward defeating Trump.  This is not the time for self promotion of other would be candidates.

[Sheilbh]

I don't see many benefits to a competition. As in if a candidate defeats Kamala then we just fsll into division and angst. We need to minimize this limbo period. Also she was on the ticket when people voted for Biden in the primary so it isn't like she wasn't part of that.

I think the legitimation stuff is nonsense and only really being mentioned by people on the right.

I think it would allow at least a bit more of how she campaigns (2020 wasn't a great success for her). It would also allow the Democrats to see if maybe a line that is less tied to Biden's record might help. I think it's tough on whether the benefits outweigh the negatives - but my instinct is that Obama is probably right and it would be a good idea.

There is another very big reason. There's a story in the WSJ today about Biden trying to persuade congressional Democrats to back his proposal - he "spoke disjointedly" and "failed to make a concrete ask of lawmakers" (according to attendees). When he left "a visibly frustrated Pelosi told the group she would articulate what Biden had been trying to say". That was in October 2021 and the last time Biden met with the House Democratic caucus about legislation (in itself striking given that under Obama, Biden was often the contact point with Congress because of his relationships there). If the Democrats think - or know - that there are any other stories like that to come out, they should assume they will - and they will dog Harris through the campaign as his VP who saw it. And I think bluntly I think if they know there's anything else, they should ditch her now.

Democrats seem to be fully in "get on board"/"don't be divisive" mode and folks online are memeing themselves into her inevitable victory. There will be adversity and bumps on the road and I'm not seeing much of anyone thinking or explaining how she's the best candidate to face those. This type of decision making in the past I don't think has helped the Democrats - either with Hillary or, apparently, believing that somehow Joe Biden could run again without people noticing his age.

Edit: Also frankly I think there'd be a benefit in just taking a minute and pausing, thinking through how this plan or others work in different scenarios. There's a month before the convention. I think "chaos" or "limbo" now will have a smaller impact on the campaign than choosing the wrong candidate. I don't think there is any need to rush especially in this rush, shut down any dissent and call for everyone to rally - I don't generally think that's a good decision making process.

[garbon]

Those would have been great things to work out before he stood down. They would deserve to lose if they were working out who should be the candidate with this limited amount of time left.

[garbon]

Also, wtf is a rush about the President stands down and his running mate continues on?