2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I'm not sure on Harris.

I liked the idea of her based on her record and was underwhelmed in the primary and couldn't really work out what campaign she was trying to run. That question's pretty easily answered for her if she becomes the nominee straight away. And I quite like the clip of her campaigning that I've seen this year - I think she seems pretty effective to me.

[Jacob]

That is encouraging if true.

[Admiral Yi]

@Shelf: I think I get it now. 

Some people said if a candidate runs in the primary against Biden it will weaken Biden in the general.  I don't know, because I haven't seen the interviews, if any of them worked in the White House.  I suppose they could be Teh Democrats, whatever the hell that means, because a Democrat would naturally be interested in a Democrat winning the general election.  I believe this statement to be true.  I may have said it out loud, or posted about it.  But I didn't squash a goddamn thing.  And neither did Teh Team or Teh Democrats.

Now under this thick veneer of quasi conspiracy theory you have a counter thesis: that a vigorous primary challenge is actually productive (instead of self destructive) because it exposes the weaknesses of the principle candidate which can then be fixed.  However Biden's principle weakness is that he is a drooling decrepit wreck.  That can't be fixed.  That can't be fixed.  So it's ammunition for the opposition, not constructive criticism.

Similarly with Hillary.  I thought she was a deeply flawed candidate.  I also thought she was a shoo-in.  I said it out loud, I posted about it, but I did not squash a damn thing.

So if you're unhappy that more candidates did not run against these two, don't blame Teh Team or Teh Democrats, blame every natural born US citizen over the age of 35.  Those are the people who had full agency to run or not run.

[Tonitrus]

I

So... Harris/Cooper 2024?

I really like what I've seen of Cooper.  He has the potential of putting NC very much in EC play.  Also feels very much like the Biden-VP pick was for Obama.

[Admiral Yi]

Heard part of an interview on NPR.  The only criteria right now for veep is white, male, brings a battleground state.

[DGuller]

Heard part of an interview on NPR.  The only criteria right now for veep is white, male, brings a battleground state.

Sounds like Shapiro vs. Cooper then.

[Admiral Yi]

Sounds like Shapiro vs. Cooper then.

Cooper is AZ?  Then those are the two names the talking head chick mentioned.

[Admiral Yi]

No, NC not AZ.  so different dude.

[Sheilbh]

Now under this thick veneer of quasi conspiracy theory you have a counter thesis: that a vigorous primary challenge is actually productive (instead of self destructive) because it exposes the weaknesses of the principle candidate which can then be fixed.  However Biden's principle weakness is that he is a drooling decrepit wreck.  That can't be fixed.  That can't be fixed.  So it's ammunition for the opposition, not constructive criticism.

Can't quite work out how politics possibly involving politics is somehow a quasi conspiracy theory.

For a long time there was a bit of an omerta on talking about Biden's age. People would do "whataboutery" about it, the NYT had that piece on comments about Biden's age were often reflect "misinformation" and there'd be lots of saying that even talking about it was just not helpful. We saw that in this thread. But that issue is a fact. It was always going to come out and be ammunition for the opposition. What clarified things and made it a huge issue leading to Biden stepping down was the debate which made it (I think tragically) obvious to everyone and all of those arguments evaporated.

My point is just that moment comes earlier if there's a robust primary competition and the Democrats have more time to sort themselves out - and, possibly, Biden can go with more dignity - rather than it spilling out a few weeks before the convention. I think similarly that campaigns generally expose flaws and a broader field would have exposed Clinton's too (whether she could fix them or not I don't know).

(If you want my conspiracy theory on this it's why Biden's team wanted a very, very early pre-convention debate?)

Similarly with Hillary.  I thought she was a deeply flawed candidate.  I also thought she was a shoo-in.  I said it out loud, I posted about it, but I did not squash a damn thing.

I don't think you're a senior Democrat or part of the Clinton or Biden campaigns

[Tonitrus]

Sounds like Shapiro vs. Cooper then.

Cooper is AZ?  Then those are the two names the talking head chick mentioned.

Mark Kelly (Senator from AZ) is not a bad choice either, as AZ is a swing-ish state (if not a critical one).

And he has Pres. Whitmore vibes.  Veteran fighter pilot and astronaut.

[HVC]

My point is just that moment comes earlier if there's a robust primary competition and the Democrats have more time to sort themselves out - and, possibly, Biden can go with more dignity - rather than it spilling out a few weeks before the convention. I think similarly that campaigns generally expose flaws and a broader field would have exposed Clinton's too (whether she could fix them or not I don't know).

Why would you risk that with an incumbent ? If he wins you leave open attacks of "not even the democrats want him, but he refuses to leave". Plus all the other attacks where the GOP can just use sound bites of other democratic candidates at least.  You take whatever benefits an incumbent has and trash them for a very limited benefit that only materialize if the incumbent loses.

[Admiral Yi]

I sort of tuned out the radio when I heard Shapiro b/c I started thinking about the ramifications in the current context of a Jewish Democratic veep.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't think you're a senior Democrat or part of the Clinton or Biden campaigns

You are correct.  That's my point.  How does a job title change the exact same act to "squashing?"

[Sheilbh]

Why would you risk that with an incumbent ? If he wins you leave open attacks of "not even the democrats want him, but he refuses to leave". Plus all the other attacks where the GOP can just use sound bites of other democratic candidates at least.  You take whatever benefits an incumbent has and trash them for a very limited benefit and only if the incumbent loses.

I agree it made perfect sense for him as an incumbent and I absolutely believe that he very sincerely believed himself to be the best placed to run. I think other figures in the party should have pushed back more and encouraged a competition.

To be clear I do not think he would be the candidate in that situation. I think where we are because of his physical state is inevitable and it would always be a question of how and when we got here. I think the election - like the debate - would have exposed that he wasn't going to be able to run properly so either he would lose or pressured to pull out like now. It might not be a loss it could just be, as in 68, a rebel candidate doing surprisingly well providing Biden with a dignified exit based on not having the support of his party not this one.

I don't really know what the plan was with him in place - and I really like Biden so I think this whole situation is a little tragic and will be his defining moment. I think he's been really let down by people around him. His closest aides, his loved ones should have been telling him this wasn't possible a long time ago.

[HVC]

I really like Biden so I think this whole situation is a little tragic and will be his defining moment. I think he's been really let down by people around him. His closest aides, his loved ones should have been telling him this wasn't possible a long time ago.

It's only tragic if Harris wins. If she loses he'll be the guy who won once and could have won again but was pushed out by fickle democrats to their and americas doom. History is written by the victors, but even the losers get different epitaphs based out outcomes.