The EU thread

[Sheilbh]

This is more young people and politics - but I might swerve that thread for a little while. But striking that in Germany CDU and AfD level pegging with 17% of the 18-24 vote. We need to snap out of the Anglo-perception of the young = left.

I think AfD peaked with working age voters and do worse with the old - which I think is also the pattern for the RN in France and the far-right in Italy. So while I think there's something going on with young men and Gen Z in the US, maybe a better question is about the working age?

Also worth noting that while the general story across Europe is fall in the Left, Liberals and Greens - with the Social Democrats probably doing better than expected, the EPP doing well and the far-right doing well (across the three big groups they're in) - that doesn't hold up in Scandinavia. There it looks like the Greens and Left have done very well.

No basis for this but can't help but think Greens down, far-right up is possibly a divide of most and least committed to net zero - and as we move from the low hanging fruit of the energy transition that is going to start having an impact on people's lives which needs to be mitigated and managed in a fair way, that is perceived as fair.

[Syt]

In Austria, interestingly, the biggest shift seems to have happened ÖVP => FPÖ. In the past, the ÖVP has tried on and off to co-opt FPÖ topics (esp. migration), but it always seems to result in strengthening FPÖ instead.

[garbon]

This is more young people and politics - but I might swerve that thread for a little while. But striking that in Germany CDU and AfD level pegging with 17% of the 18-24 vote. We need to snap out of the Anglo-perception of the young = left.

I think AfD peaked with working age voters and do worse with the old - which I think is also the pattern for the RN in France and the far-right in Italy. So while I think there's something going on with young men and Gen Z in the US, maybe a better question is about the working age?

Also worth noting that while the general story across Europe is fall in the Left, Liberals and Greens - with the Social Democrats probably doing better than expected, the EPP doing well and the far-right doing well (across the three big groups they're in) - that doesn't hold up in Scandinavia. There it looks like the Greens and Left have done very well.

No basis for this but can't help but think Greens down, far-right up is possibly a divide of most and least committed to net zero - and as we move from the low hanging fruit of the energy transition that is going to start having an impact on people's lives which needs to be mitigated and managed in a fair way, that is perceived as fair.

Perhaps some will only learn by facing the consequences of their votes.

[Sheilbh]

Perhaps, although I hope not given how older Europeans learned their aversion to the far-right.

[garbon]

Perhaps, although I hope not given how older Europeans learned their aversion to the far-right.

Of course.

[Josquius]

The trouble with promising simple problems to complex solutions is they don't work.
So it is a fair thought that give the fasc a term in power and hope they don't fuck up too much and people will start to see sense.
But then look to trump. Fascists by definition are professional victims. If they fail to solve all the world's problems then it's someone else's fault and you need to vote for them even harder.

[Solmyr]

In Finland, the results were actually quite good compared to the big EU countries. The big winners are National Coalition (center-right) who rose from 3 seats to 4, and the Left Alliance (mainstream left), who got 2 new seats and are now at 3. Far-right nationalist The Finns are big losers, with only 1 seat remaining as their support melted. So no far-right rise over here! I understand it's similar in Sweden, where the far-right SD did not get as much as was feared.

Finnish parties are also a bit different in that our left is very anti-Russia and our greens are pro-science and like nuclear power.

[Syt]

simple problems to complex solutions

[Syt]

So it is a fair thought that give the fasc a term in power and hope they don't fuck up too much and people will start to see sense.

Didn't work in Austria, with FPÖ having easily recovered from the Ibiza affair, despite losing, arguably, their most charismatic public figures through the affair and the power struggle afterwards. Though it's conceivable that FPÖ would be polling even better if Strache and Hofer were still in the front row.

[garbon]

The trouble with promising simple problems to complex solutions is they don't work.
So it is a fair thought that give the fasc a term in power and hope they don't fuck up too much and people will start to see sense.
But then look to trump. Fascists by definition are professional victims. If they fail to solve all the world's problems then it's someone else's fault and you need to vote for them even harder.

If that's what the people want...

[Richard Hakluyt]

Zeit has some good maps of the German results :

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2024-06/wahlergebnisse-europawahl-deutschland-landkreise-live

[Josquius]

simple problems to complex solutions

Me no word good no sleep.

[Sheilbh]

Didn't work in Austria, with FPÖ having easily recovered from the Ibiza affair, despite losing, arguably, their most charismatic public figures through the affair and the power struggle afterwards. Though it's conceivable that FPÖ would be polling even better if Strache and Hofer were still in the front row.

I saw that from Olivier Blanchard - formerly of IMF (and possibly angling for a big appointment) - saying that this was a bold and smart move because either the election campaign will highlight the RN's inconsistencies and they'll lose, or they'll win and fail in office very badly. Either way inoculating France from Le Pen, President in 2027.

If that's the thinking (and obviously different voting system than Euros which will be a challenge for RN), in Europe 2024 it seems breathtakingly complacent/arrogant.

[Syt]

To illustrate, 5 years between these covers.



Right: "FPÖ in tatters!"
Left: "FPÖ for the first time in first place in Austria"

[Zanza]

Zeit has some good maps of the German results :

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2024-06/wahlergebnisse-europawahl-deutschland-landkreise-live

Maybe it is time to build an Anti-Fascist Protection Wall.