The EU thread

[Tamas]

  What an apt summary of the country.

[Zanza]

It's also a mix of European parliamentary families with ECR groups (FdI, PiS, Vox, Swedish Democrats) and ID (Chega, Le Pen, AfD). Meloni de facto leads the ECR which the EPP is increasingly open to working with as a "respectable" far-right (they're not "populist", which seems to mean not explicitly anti-Europe, pro-Ukraine and not causing issues for the Euro) v the ID group which is still perceived as more problematic.

Le Pen has broken up with AfD as the AfD is too Nazi even for them.

[Sheilbh]

I think they're both still in ID in the European Parliament, but those groups don't always really have a party line (even by EP standards).

But yeah in a way it's interesting who is and isn't invited and, except for Orban, it's an interestingly South America and Southern European group.

[Zanza]

It's news from today. The RN said adieu after the last comments by AfD top candidate Krah on how the Waffen SS was not completely criminal.

Edit: They are basically developing in opposite direction. Le Pen wants to be a "respectable" right populist like Meloni. The AfD wants to be the NSDAP.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting - wonder if it will be more than Le Pen who will move into ECR and that will be the split of a "respectable" far-right v ID?

(Although I always add my comment here that FdI is from a literal post-fascist party founded by Social Republic dead enders who, on the streets, still hold events mourning "fallen comrades" giving fascist salutes. She is not "populist" - I think she's more dangerous. Even if it appears her party and others associated with it are increasingly ushered in as respectable Europeans like the EPP or SD or RE.)

Edit: Also interesting how the boundaries matter on that side of politics - Farage would always express "admiration" for Le Pen for changing the party after her father but always refuse to sit in a party with her. It sounds similar.

[Jacob]

The four right of centre parties that are forming the government in the Netherlands have appointed a public servant and former head of the intelligence service as the prime minister. While he's a former member of the social democrats, he has never had a political career.

Additionally, it seems that none of the leaders of the four government parties are not going to take ministerial posts and instead sit in parliament as regular MPs.

Beyond what I've read in the article linked below (and a few similar ones), I have no insight into why they're doing it this way, nor of the the likely repercussions.

Fascinating stuff.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/05/29/who-is-dick-schoof-and-why-did-geert-wilders-appoint-him

[Sheilbh]

I get why the VVD (I think) insisted they couldn't work with Wilders as PM - which I think is why none of the party leaders are in cabinet. But I slightly worry it'll allow him a position of power without responsibility where he'll be able to shape the government agenda, while also disowning it/acting as if in opposition if things get tough. They're appointing a government of "experts" who are broadly not really political figures, from my understanding.

I think the polls since the election have shown there would be even better results for Wilders if they went to another election. I think the BBB (farmer's party founded after EU rules on nitrogen, as interpreted by Dutch courts, have basically resulted in family farms being shut down) and the NSC (centrist-ish party founded by a former Christian Democrat who I think was prominent in the benefits algorithm scandal) are both fairly populist/anti-system so can work with Wilders as shaking up the established order. I think the VVD is the more interesting case because they're European liberals and the party of former PM, Mark Rutte. Apparently Macron has been outraged that a sister party would enter into coalition with the forces he thinks they're there to vanquish. On the other hand I think except for one term of four years, the VVD have been in every Dutch government since 1994 - they're very good at coalition politics and can go right or left depending on the results.

What they'll do doesn't sound great. But they have committed on Ukraine - which is interesting as I think that has increasingly become the shibboleth in Europe. If you are still committed to Ukraine then you are within the boundaries of acceptable politics - it helped relations with the PiS in Poland and has played a huge part in laundering Meloni's party.

[Josquius]

A bbc article on the fascist rise with the young.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqqq952e3v6o.amp

As per usual with the far right it's made even more depressing as the logic is completely counter intuitive. The left has failed to fix the world's issues so now let's give the right a turn.... What? We live in a right wing world.
Sadly I've heard this same nonsense belief in reality too. Elon musk the centrist style bizare logic.

[Sheilbh]

Did the EU Vote Match thing - basically various forms of either Volt or Pirate Parties

Also regionalists/nationalists in Spain.

The only country where no party was even over 50%: Ireland. Apparently Fine Gael comes closest - which I'm not sure about. Sweden was also very low, but apparently closest to the Centre Party which I don't like the sound of

[Sheilbh]

Exit poll from France looks as bad as expected (although pleased to see the PS fightback continues):

Ifop Opinion
@IfopOpinion
🌀 Estimations France entière - Résultats à l'élection européenne – 20h - @IfopOpinion-@Fiducial pour @TF1, @LCI et @Le_Figaro


RN : 32,4%
Renaissance : 15,2%
PS : 14,3%
LFI : 8,3%
LR : 7%
Les Ecologistes : 5,6%
Reconquête ! : 5,1%

Macron, as ever, living for the drama has said it's been a bad night for those who "defend Europe" and will dissolve the Assemblee nationale for new legislatives before the Olympics

(I'd argue that the problem is precisely that the divide is not between those who "defend Europe" and those who don't - but rather different visions of Europe. The pro v anti-EU dichotomy is not accurate and hasn't been since Britain left. To some extent Macron has played into this with his own civilisational vision. But, not just with results in France, we need to start thinking what a far-right European Union would look like.)

Edit: Macron calling it a "democratic moment of truth". I mean maybe he's trying to a Mitterrand 86 - get cohabitation in order to destroy the opposition and win again? Only Le Pen isn't Chirac and Macron can't run again....so....

Or maybe Sunak's precedent of electorally Leeroy Jenkins-ing is just quite inspiring to other rash leaders around the world

[Zanza]

In East Germany, the fascists are now by far the biggest party. Add in a pro-Russian party and 40% of the electorate vote for anti-democratic parties.

[Sheilbh]

Was that the BSW? Over 5%?

Also a very distressing result for the SPD generally

Slightly surprised by how strong the AfD result looks, at second nationwide. And from what I've seen pretty dreadful for all the governing parties (though as I've said elsewhere - I think this is a really, really tough environment for incumbents).

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Was that the BSW? Over 5%?

Also a very distressing result for the SPD generally

Slightly surprised by how strong the AfD result looks, at second nationwide. And from what I've seen pretty dreadful for all the governing parties (though as I've said elsewhere - I think this is a really, really tough environment for incumbents).

Having a muslim asylumseeker stab police to death a few days before the elections (and a rather sizeable muslim pro-sharia protest a few weeks earlier) is going to piss of a sizeable number of people.
And Germans are weird in the best of times (and these are not the best of times)

[Josquius]

In East Germany, the fascists are now by far the biggest party. Add in a pro-Russian party and 40% of the electorate vote for anti-democratic parties.

So the DDRs constant paranoia about nazis was right afterall. They were dealt a totally different hand to the west. 

[Zanza]

Having a muslim asylumseeker stab police to death a few days before the elections (and a rather sizeable muslim pro-sharia protest a few weeks earlier) is going to piss of a sizeable number of people.
And Germans are weird in the best of times (and these are not the best of times)

Actually these events did not move polls much and they have shown this outcome for weeks and months. This seems to be fairly stable level of support unmoved by current events.