The EU thread

[Sheilbh]

As Sehilbh says, not usually an issue.  At worst you may view your local MP as a potted plant or trained seal, but at best some MPs can have support well above that of the national party.  But as I type I can think of a handuful of times when a bad candidate lost a party an otherwise winnable riding.

It's pretty unusual for a sitting MP to win the nomination a second time, but if a candidate is that unpopular it can happen.

In the UK there's been studies and we have more rebellious MPs now than in a long time and it's basically been continually rising since the 50s. One of the key reasons seems to be that MPs think voters will reward them for being more independent of their party/voting their beliefs instead of just the party whip. That is, after all, what everyone says they wants (same reason many of them do more and more local constituency work).

But the evidence is that it neither reblling nor being a good local MP has much impact on voter behaviour and actually at the same time as they've been doing that stuff more, the impact of national swing has been increasing on how voters' vote.

So the strength/impact of the local link is not really true but at the same time MPs believe it's true so it changes how they behave which weirdly makes it true

As you say it's rare but I can definitely think of a bad candidate losing a winnable seat for a party though - I lived in (what was then) a swing seat which was a big target for the Tories in 2010. They chose one of Cameron's A-listers (scheme to increase women and minority Tory MPs) as candidate who was a media lawyer and she was an absolute disaster - refused to talk to the local press (who I think she later accused of lying), got into a huge row with her local party who she called "dinosaurs" which inevitably meant she didn't have much support canvassing and loads of other  nonsense.

By contrast the Labour MP who won was a very, very good local MP for 15 years, was very good on housing won (and the swing from Labour was a lot lower than the national average). She's still an MP now and still excellent on housing.

[Barrister]

As Sehilbh says, not usually an issue.  At worst you may view your local MP as a potted plant or trained seal, but at best some MPs can have support well above that of the national party.  But as I type I can think of a handuful of times when a bad candidate lost a party an otherwise winnable riding.

It's pretty unusual for a sitting MP to win the nomination a second time, but if a candidate is that unpopular it can happen.

Hopefully obvious from context, but should read "pretty unusual for a sitting MP to LOSE the nomination a second time".

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally, speaking of Meloni:

Geert Wilders
@geertwilderspvv
Today I received in my office in Parliament the Ambassador of Ukraine H.E @karasevych, accompanied by Honorary Consul @KBurgerDirven, and expressed my respect for the brave Ukrainian people in their fight for freedom and the regaining of total national sovereignty.

No doubt domestic signalling as well. But I think Nicolai von Ondarza's right in pointing out that the condition of some in the EPP to start working more with the far right in the EU was support for EU integration (plus don't threaten the Euro) and the Atlantic alliance, particularly expressed through support for Ukraine. It looks like Wilders (who had been suspect on Ukraine) is indicating he'll follow Meloni's approach if he becomes PM.

Totally separately - just saw this. What is going on with Luxembourg?

[HVC]

Tiny but still has basic infrastructure so the per capita gets skewed? Kind of like Greenland I'd assume. Can't explain Australia though.

[Sheilbh]

Tiny but still has basic infrastructure so the per capita gets skewed? Can't explain Australia though.

Yeah it must be some weird function of per capita calculation. Although Malta seems normal? Maybe something to do with being a tax haven somehow?

Australia I can get - it's like the US or Canada. Big, lots of cars, extraction economy etc. And their right are very anti-anything on climate.

Edit: Also the range in the Baltics is striking

[HVC]

Yeah, I forgot about Australian mining. Don't think they're big on manufacturing (hence. Everything is super expensive). Make sense they'd be a driving culture, but never really thought about it.

Is Malta just super poor?

[Josquius]

Incidentally, speaking of Meloni:
[ Meloni's approach if he becomes PM.

Totally separately - just saw this. What is going on with Luxembourg?

Probably something to do with a lot of cross border commuters and poor transport infrastructure?
Or I wonder whether polluting corporations being registered there does it.

Iirc they made all internal public transport free some years ago?

[Sheilbh]

On the Italian electoral reform and what I don't quite understand - the same was true with Renzi's - is it's described as a "directly elected PM" which is what I mean about it being a weird mix of presidential in a parliamentary system.

I'm not sure how that works unless you basically have a Meloni list v, say, a Schlein list and whoever wins gets 55%.

I can't work out how you can have a directly elected PM in a parliamentary system - but it's one of a package of reforms to strengthen the PM's position (FdI had previously focused on moving to a more presidential republic).

[Josquius]

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/17/crises-have-split-european-voters-into-five-tribes-survey-suggests

Crises have split European voters into five 'tribes', survey suggests
Attitudes to climate, migration, global economic turmoil, Ukraine and Covid will dominate this year's elections, research indicates

Europe's voters are no longer divided into left or right, pro- or anti-EU camps, a survey suggests, but into five distinct tribes whose conflicting concerns are likely to dominate nearly 20 elections across the continent this year.

The report argues that Europeans' lives have been affected by five major crises in recent years - the climate emergency, the 2015 migration crisis, global economic turmoil, the war in Ukraine and Covid - and suggests voters in European parliament and national elections this year will focus on the one they feel most concerned by.

The report's authors argue that all five of these crises "were felt across Europe, although to varying intensities in different corners of the continent; experienced as an existential threat by many Europeans; dramatically affected government policies – and are by no means over".

The study's co-author Mark Leonard said: "In 2019, the central struggle was between populists who wanted to turn their back on European integration, and mainstream parties that wanted to save the European project from Brexit and Trump."

"This time around, it will be a contest between competing fears of rising temperatures, immigration, inflation, and military conflict," Leonard, the director of the Berlin-based European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank, said.

Ivan Krastev of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Bulgaria, said the study showed that in terms of how they saw the EU, citizens were "drifting away from the ideological bonds of right and left" and were instead swayed more by their views of these crises.

The report, A Crisis of One's Own: the Politics of Trauma in Europe's Election Year, suggests mainstream political parties might struggle to mobilise voters on issues such as the future of the European project, suggesting instead that they should "examine and propose solutions" for voters' most urgent concerns.

Overall, the report's authors said, the climate crisis and immigration would prove the two biggest mobilisers in the election campaigns due to be fought across Europe in 2024 – as they were in the Dutch parliamentary poll in November.

Make or break for the EU? Europeans vote in June with far right on the rise
Dutch voters placed Geert Wilders' anti-immigrant Freedom party (PVV) top of the poll, with the pro-environment Green-Labour alliance headed by the former European Commission vice-president Frans Timmermans finishing second.

"The struggle between these two 'tribes' is ... a clash of two 'extinction rebellions'," the authors said. "Climate activists fear the extinction of human and other life; anti-migration activists fear the disappearance of their nations and cultural identity."

Voters who view immigration as the biggest crisis mostly back rightwing parties such as the National Rally in France or Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD); those who prioritise the climate tend to support green or leftist parties such as Spain's Socialists or Poland's Left.

One early political consequence of this was the "Europeanisation" of migration as the EU sought to assuage voter concerns, the authors said, and, simultaneously, the "renationalisation" by rightwingers of the debate around slowing global heating.

Besides the European parliament election, due in June, voters in 15 European countries – including Portugal, Belgium, Austria, Croatia, Lithuania and the UK – go to the polls this year in national parliamentary and presidential ballots.

The survey – of nine EU member states representing 75% of the bloc's population, plus Great Britain and Switzerland – suggested that 73.4 million European voters believed the climate emergency was the single most important crisis affecting their future.

Almost as many (72.8 million) felt Covid – which exposed the vulnerability of national healthcare systems, with major economic consequences – was the most important, while 69.3 million said global economic turmoil was their chief concern, 58.2 million opted for immigration, 49 million for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and 46.4 million chose none of the five.

The study found, however, that these voter "tribes" were not evenly distributed either geographically, by age or by education. Voters in Germany, for example, felt immigration was the most transformative crisis (31%), whereas in France it was climate change (27%).

In Italy and Portugal, both of which were badly affected by the 2008 financial crash and ensuing eurozone crisis, a plurality (34%) of respondents said worldwide economic turmoil and the rising cost of living were paramount among their concerns.

Fears about Russia's war on Ukraine, meanwhile, were greatest in countries closest to the conflict: respondents in Estonia (40%), Poland (31%) and Denmark (29%) saw it as the most important crisis, against 7% in France and Italy and 6% in Spain and Great Britain.

In terms of generations, the climate crisis topped the agenda among the young, with 24% of 18- to 29-year-olds considering it the most important issue for their future. That age group also saw immigration as its least important concern (9%).

Of all age groups, older generations were most worried by immigration as a vital issue, with 13% of 50- to 69-year-olds and 16% of respondents aged 70-plus ranking it as their biggest concern. Among highly educated voters, the climate crisis was the chief concern (22%).

For supporters of far-right parties in countries where they are not in power immigration was the issue that had most changed the way they look at their future, for example Reconquête (76%) in France, AfD in Germany (66%) and Reform in Great Britain (63%).

In countries where the far right is in government, however, such as Italy, barely 10% of survey respondents reported immigration as their biggest concern, including only 17% of voters aligned with the Brothers of Italy party of Italy's prime minister, Giorgia Meloni.

The 2024 European parliament elections would be "about projections rather than projects", the study's authors said. "Each of Europe's five crises will have many lives, but it is at the ballot box where they will live, die or be resurrected.

"The European election will not just be a competition between left and right – and Eurosceptics and pro-Europeans – but also a battle for supremacy between the different crisis tribes of Europe."

Charts on the article are badly done but interesting data for big nations.

It does seem a key tactic should be in trying to get across the message that if you're terrified of brown people and anti-immigration then climate change should be your priority.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting media project from across the EU (including Le Monde, Dutch paper etc) has found that about one quarter of MEPs have been involved in an "affair".

This was worked out by political scientists but basically an "affair" had to have had media coverage and/or sanction, official investigation or reprimand. The causes vary from corruption, fraud, misappropriation, conflicts of interest, improper use of authority, lots of fictitious "aides" collecting salaries etc. The most extreme example seems to be the Greek MEP who is still writing legislation and amendments from his prison cell

But I mention because I think this goes to one of my hobby horses about corruption in local government which I think is becoming more and more of a problem because of the decline of the local press. And I feel there's something similar with Europe - with a couple of exceptions (Politico) there is still no "European" press which covers the European institutions the way national institutions are - and I think it's a problem. The most striking thing about this report for me is that no-one had really done it before and the difficulty in doing it as these were, broadly, reported in national media as a local scandal about x party MEP.

Not sure how to solve it (of the death of the local press) as, sadly, I don't think there's much of a market for it but I think it is important - especially as power/responsibilities increase at that level of government.

[Sheilbh]

Was tempted to post this in the China thread as this may be the answer to "where will the demand come from" and I think captures the possible dilemma that what is bad for the Western order might actually be good for the world in a climate crisis.

But I think it is more of an EU issue and the point I'd add here is that through subsidies and industrial policy Europe was the world leader in solar production and until the austerity of the 2010s was the world leader in installation. Both of those have effectively collapsed and instead there is increased dependence on China - and I fully acknowledge I'm very much on the side of emphasising "geopolitical risk" over economic efficiency or energy transition. And I get that we have the technology and we can build these things in the future but I think it would be, in the event of geopolitical disruption, more difficult if the industry is allowed to die now - so hopefully some action soon:

EU mum as solar industry time bomb ticks
Brussels is considering aiding local producers, but didn't announce anything in a Monday statement.


EU solar manufacturers say they face an existential crisis due to Chinese subsidies | Gerard Julien/AFP via Getty February 5, 2024 11:46 pm CET
By Victor Jack

BRUSSELS — The EU is racing to save its ailing solar producers as the industry warns it has just weeks before it implodes.

Yet you might not have known such a crisis was at hand from the tone the European Commission took on Monday. The EU executive issued a muted and bureaucratic statement on the situation that anxious industry executives parsed for any semblance of a lifeline.

EU solar manufacturers say they face an existential crisis due to Chinese subsidies, which they blame for flooding the EU with dirt-cheap solar panels and creating a supply glut that is causing a wave of bankruptcies. Not everyone agrees, however, that Brussels should challenge China over its solar practices, given that it might ultimately restrict much-needed solar imports. Others wonder whether emergency cash wouldn't be wasted on a sector that may already be terminal. 

For local companies, though, their livelihoods are on the line.

"The situation is really, really, really troublesome," said Johan Lindahl, secretary general of the European Solar Manufacturing Council (ESMC), which represents local producers. "We might lose a majority of the European industry in the next couple of months if there's no strong political signal."

That signal didn't come on Monday.

While the Commission has begun early-stage talks on options to help producers, it made no commitments during a hotly anticipated debate in the European Parliament that many in the industry had hoped would show the bloc was taking immediate action.

Low prices are "clearly a challenge to EU solar panel producers," EU financial services chief Mairead McGuinness told MEPs in Strasbourg, adding the EU executive would "work closely with the EU industry to deploy every effort at the technical and political level" to help manufacturers.

MEPs from all the Parliament's main parties expressed dismay.

"Our market is being attacked by cheaper imports from third countries fueled by huge subsidies," said center-right lawmaker Liudas Mažylis of the European People's Party group. "We have to think about providing immediate support to solar manufacturers."

"I expect more from the Commission ... because otherwise, we're not going to be able to achieve our [industrial policy] objectives," added center-left MEP Matthias Ecke of the Socialists and Democrats.

Dark skies ahead

The debate over how — and whether — to save Europe's solar industry comes as Brussels takes an increasingly assertive stance toward Beijing.

Last fall the EU opened a probe into whether Chinese subsidies for electric vehicles — another key next-generation technology — were unfairly harming EU manufacturers. The investigation triggered a tit-for-tat response from China targeting French brandy.

At the same time, the EU wants to avoid overreliance on a single country for its energy supplies — having been stung when Russia suddenly cut off gas exports in 2022 amid the war in Ukraine, sending prices skyward.

The solar industry, represented in Brussels by SolarPower Europe and ESMC, has for months urged Brussels to spearhead an EU-led buyout of manufacturer stocks; to further relax state aid laws for solar initiatives; and to adopt rules favoring local producers for green energy projects.

Such initiatives could tide the industry over for "two to three years," said ESMC's Lindahl, when new EU laws favoring local manufacturing and penalizing foreign products made with forced labor take effect. The rules will make EU producers more competitive, Lindahl said, given that Beijing faces accusations of human rights abuses in its solar production chain.

But others argue that EU support for solar producers is futile given that the bloc's tiny industry can't compete with China in the long term. Beijing controls over 80 percent of global solar manufacturing capacity, while the EU produced just 3 percent of the solar panels it installed last year.

"Unless you absolutely pour money into this ... anything you do will just be very, very short term and give breathing space to manufacturers," said Lara Hayim, head of solar research at BloombergNEF. "I can't help but feel that these are all efforts that are a bit in vain."

In the meantime, many of the bloc's solar firms have already gone bust, with Dutch panel producer Exasun and Austrian module manufacturer Energetic filing for insolvency in recent months.

Germany — home to more than half of the EU's 5 gigawatt solar module production capacity — will likely suffer most.

The Berlin government is in last-ditch talks with Meyer Burger after the Swiss solar firm said it would halt production of modules in the country by April. Two other solar producers, Solarwatt and Heckert Solar, have also threatened closures and investment pauses.

The China enigma

At the heart of local producer complaints is that copious Chinese subsidies are distorting the market, leaving EU manufacturers unable to compete.

Beijing began to experiment with solar production in the early 2000s, but it wasn't until the 2008 financial crisis and the EU's slapping tariffs on Chinese solar panels a decade ago that the government built up local capacity, said Alexander Brown, an analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies.

After labeling solar a "strategic emerging industry" in 2010, Beijing pumped cash into the sector via state-owned banks, while private firms invested heavily into research and development, Brown said.

Solar cells now form part of China's self-professed "new three" export pillars, alongside lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles. The term has come to symbolize Beijing's push to swap its historically labor-intensive economy for a technology-intensive upgrade.

But whether the country's current solar dominance is owed to distortive state aid isn't clear.

ESMC argues that Chinese module prices — which are up to three times cheaper than their European equivalents — are sold below the cost of production, indicating significant state aid.

But low prices also derive from fierce internal competition among Chinese manufacturers, as well as from lower labor costs, economies of scale, and rapid innovations in solar technology, said Hayim, the solar researcher at BloombergNEF.

"Subsidies might be helping," she said. "But I don't think that's the reason why China can produce at the rates that they can do."

China's mission to the EU didn't respond to a request for comment, but Beijing envoy Fu Cong told Bloomberg last month that blaming Chinese subsidies was "a bit unfair," given that EU capitals also dole out support.

As if in confirmation, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced on Saturday that €90 million in EU post-pandemic recovery cash would be used to expand the 3Sun solar factory in Sicily, already one of the bloc's largest manufacturers.

Impossible tradeoff

But penalizing China's solar industry represents a conundrum for the EU.

Brussels wants to bring 30 GW of solar manufacturing capacity back to Europe by 2030, but will also need to deploy 750 GW of solar panels across the Continent by then to meet EU climate goals.

Not only does the bloc need Chinese imports, but any trade measures against China's solar industry could prompt retaliation.

Europe has a "crucial dilemma when it comes to green industrial policy," said Simone Tagliapietra, a climate policy specialist at the Bruegel think tank. "How to strike the right balance between economic efficiency and geopolitical resilience, without slowing down the green transition."

ESMC, representing EU manufacturers, called on the Commission last week to apply "provisional safeguarding measures" such as a partial import ban on Chinese solar panels "as a last resort."

But SolarPower Europe CEO Walburga Hemetsberger told POLITICO such moves "would really be detrimental for the solar sector," and could slow deployment by up to 50 percent.

That split is also apparent among countries. At a December meeting of EU ministers on solar manufacturing, five out of seven countries appeared resistant to any trade defense measures — but that opinion wasn't universal, according to a person who took part in the meeting, and was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

"[The] situation is worrying ... there is an obvious trade imbalance and dependence on China here," said a diplomat from an EU country, who was also granted anonymity to speak freely. But "tariffs against China are probably a bad idea."

"We need to start making strategic choices," the diplomat said. "Maybe solar is not the battle we should fight."

Koen Verhelst and Julia Wacket contributed reporting. Graphics by Giovanna Coi.

And I get the "maybe this isn't the right battle" point. But it feels like the EU is currently shirking all battles or at most proceeding through BAU process like probes into x trade distortion or reporting China (or the US) to the WTO which I don't think recognises the scale of the issue or the risk.

Also I think of Habeck's line that Europe might have the best regulations in the world on future technologies, but it doesn't really matter if it doesn't have any companies in them - and there's something so telling in Europe worrying about China unfairly building dominance in electric vehicles, and China's response hitting an artisanal luxury good like French brandy.

[Iormlund]

I used to work on PV solar back in the day, and most of the money ended up in China even back then.

Inverters and the like were European, but the panels themselves were almost always Chinese.

[Syt]

Meeting of Czech and Polish foreign ministers.



 

[Sheilbh]

Interesting thought I've just seen - and I think there is something to it - are the AI powered tools to translate videos about to transform EU politics?

They're getting really good. Probably too soon for this election cycle but I wonder if we are at the cusp of a genuine European public square. From an English perspective, for example, Macron's recent interview on Ukraine:
https://x.com/vtchakarova/status/1768390964727472315

That was done by journos but here's (inevitably taking the technological lead) a far right politician, Marion Marechal, AI translating her comments into English but you can see her doing this in German, Italian, Polish too etc:
https://x.com/MarionMarechal/status/1770894693481537884

It might open up genuine Europe-wide political parties. Although, as with the Marechal clip, I think the most integrated cross-border politics is probably actually the far right in Europe so I wonder if they'll take an early lead on adopting this?

Could be wrong but it feels like this could be potentially transformative if European politics moves from Bong Joon-Ho's "one inch barrier of subtitles" or the stilted voiceover translations you get in the European Parliament. You almost feel the next generation could even have an impact on the functioning of the Parliament and Council itself as translations are able to sync to a user's tone of voice etc.

[Josquius]

That is pretty cool. Wonder how long the processing takes. As it does seem just a few steps from a proper star trek universal translator.

Though poor professional translators.