The EU thread

[Jacob]

But why does Hungary need to be in the EU to do any of that?

1. Free money, as the Brain points out.

2. Hungary wields more power inside Europe than outside.

2A. The EU is a big player and EU decisions reach far beyond their borders. As a member, Hungary has more influnce on EU decisions than a non-member does.

2B. It makes Orban a more worthwhile ally for all sorts of other actors - inside or outside the EU. Countries inside the EU need to deal with him for the purposes of internal EU politics. Powers outside the EU may find Hungary the most amenable ally to influence events and get intel from inside the EU.

3. It's safer. Hungary is less vulnerable to being pressured by outside powers.

[Zoupa]

Guys, I know all this. I realize my question was not very clear. I guess it's not really a Hungary-specific question, more like a "how can the electorate keep selecting the absolute worst option in so many instances" kind of reflection.

I guess humans have a sky-high tolerance for hypocrisy or something.

[Tamas]

Fair.

I don't really think he's to blame for those trends in Europe, he's just riding the same waves as everyone else.

Where I'd give him "credit" is that I think he is partly responsible for turning the radical and far-right from being anti-EU (the other part was Brexit ). He's shown a way to use Europe to help achieve their goals and help mould it. I think before Orban a far-right/radical right EU was more or less unimaginable - I now think it's possible. I can imagine Le Pen, Meloni, Wilders, Orban etc meeting at the European Council, rotating Presidents etc shaping the agenda for Europe.

I think that was mainly Brexit though. It really shut the anti-EU crowd up in Europe.

[HVC]

Fair.

I don't really think he's to blame for those trends in Europe, he's just riding the same waves as everyone else.

Where I'd give him "credit" is that I think he is partly responsible for turning the radical and far-right from being anti-EU (the other part was Brexit ). He's shown a way to use Europe to help achieve their goals and help mould it. I think before Orban a far-right/radical right EU was more or less unimaginable - I now think it's possible. I can imagine Le Pen, Meloni, Wilders, Orban etc meeting at the European Council, rotating Presidents etc shaping the agenda for Europe.

I think that was mainly Brexit though. It really shut the anti-EU crowd up in Europe.

They saw how bad things can get when you leave? Or they just lost their most powerful voice?

[Sheilbh]

They saw how bad things can get when you leave? Or they just lost their most powerful voice?

UK goverments were never a powerful voice for the far right. Whether Labour or Tory they were the most reluctant for further integration, very hostile to anything that could undermine NATO's primacy on defence and very supportive of trade deals/liberalisation. Normally allied with the Dutch, the Nordics and sometimes Germany depending on the issues as they had similar-ish views.

They saw leaving was chaos which discredited any voice calling to leave or for referendums on it - so they adjusted. I also think part of it was that they saw you didn't need to just oppose, Orban showed how you could use the EU to further your agenda and shape it. There was a model which I don't think really existed before for the type of politics Orban represented. I think maybe the Kaczynskis tried but I don't think they actually managed much time in office - while Orban is now, I think, the longest serving EU leader.

Although I'd add that there is a degree of perceptions here and I think this will turn because reality always bears out. For all that chaos, in practical terms since either the referendum or actually leaving the UK's growth has been about average for Western Europe - about the same as France. Of course that is because many of the problems we have are actually broadly shared by most of the rest of Europe....

[Jacob]

Guys, I know all this. I realize my question was not very clear. I guess it's not really a Hungary-specific question, more like a "how can the electorate keep selecting the absolute worst option in so many instances" kind of reflection.

I guess humans have a sky-high tolerance for hypocrisy or something.

Oh yes, we do.

[Sheilbh]

I think some of it is maybe Hungary specific. The acts against the free media and creating difficulties for the opposition. I also think - and I could be wrong on this, Tamas will know - but the financial crisis really hit Hungary. They had to get the IMF in, large scale cuts, income falling etc - and since 2010 things have improved for the average Hungarian and Hungary is back to converging with Austria.

Again all of that, particularly for that type of economy, enabled by the EU.

I imagine there's about three voters in Hungary who think about the tension of that and Orban's position - and one of them posts here. For most people, from my understanding, life's got better in the last decade - their living standards have improved. It's maybe a bit like China or Putin's Russia (before the war) - there's a bit of results/output legitimacy.

[Tamas]

True although it is very relative. A lot of people are in destitute poverty but paradoxically it seems many have experienced the switch from straight-out welfare payments to "communal work" (you are no longer entitled for unemployment benefits, rather you are employed by the local council for pittance, in a lot of ways becoming a neo-serf strata in service of the local noble mayor) as a positive thing. And in recent years any additional hardship (which has grown a lot since the high inflation) is blamed on pretty much everyone but Orban, thanks to the tireless efforts of the overwhelming media empire.

The so-called middle class has probably seen more genuine improvement, but for that feeling to persist they increasingly need to ignore the rotting of public services, education and healthcare in particular, both of which are in very dire states.

Also worth noting that at the first sign of a challenge (such as the last couple of years) the Orban system -built on feudal chains of loyalty instead of competence- is in trouble. The state budget has been in absolute shambles, I think this 10 billion will be a huge lifeline for Orban. Congrats to the EU for saving his skin.

[Sheilbh]

Was the opposition forming a joint bloc not really effective at the last election? I thought that might work but then also got the sense the picked the worst possible frontman (I think something similaar happened in Turkey where the opposition united but picked the least charismatic/popular candidate ).

[Tamas]

Was the opposition forming a joint bloc not really effective at the last election? I thought that might work but then also got the sense the picked the worst possible frontman (I think something similaar happened in Turkey where the opposition united but picked the least charismatic/popular candidate ).

Ugh, that guy. I am going to cover that in the Hungarian thread in a bit

[Jacob]

So Ukraine and Moldova can start negotiating to join the EU.

I guess we know what that 10 billion Euro to Hungary bought.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

it would have been nice if the memberstates would also have placed massive orders for military equipment, so that we have a massive increase in capacity in 2024 rather than in 2402.
But bon, this is good news even if UA won't be joining in the next few decades. Since I'm pretty sure the enlargement won't be with a cyprus-scenario (country half occupied by invaders) we'll be seeing, in due time, the eviction of the Russians (ideally).
Now if the Ruspublicans in the US can stop being idiots for a bit (or maybe get beamed off world) we can get back to business making sure the rest of the world doesn't descend into war

[Sheilbh]

So Ukraine and Moldova can start negotiating to join the EU.

I guess we know what that 10 billion Euro to Hungary bought.

Saw one reporter saying an EU diplomat described it as "easier than expected". Which presumably means Orban just accepted the bribe and let this get waved through as opposed to accepting the bribe, then forcing the EUCO to run until 5 am before letting it get waved through

Edit: And the way this works - he left the room at a pre-agreed time to allow unanimity:

Viktor Orban was "momentarily absent from the room in a pre-agreed and constructive manner" when the decision was made.

[Tamas]

So, essentially, the EU will stop Orban making a mockery of its values and rules as soon as there will be nothing left for him to obscure. In other words, after he dies.

[Zoupa]

Have you seen the size of his belly? The man is not long for this world.