The EU thread

[The Minsky Moment]

And reports a third far-right grouping is being formed around AfD

Even far right extremists get a little nervous when it's German far right extremists.

[Jacob]

So 43% is from Nuclear/Hydroelectric?  That's higher than I would have thought, unless there's a category I haven't thought of.

That's my assumption as well.

Found a graphic this linkthat suggests the categories are:

Wind, Solar, Hydro, Nuclear, Coal, Gas, Other Fossil, Other, Demand

Not sure what "other" entails (geothermal, hydrogen...?) or what "demand" means.

[Sheilbh]

Various bits of news from Germany today that are quite striking.

I assume politically responding to the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, Scholz has called for increased negotiations to achieve peace between Russia and Ukraine "more quickly". Also, I think because of those elections, the German government has announced that they will be imposing temporary checks on all of Germany's land borders for the next six months.

Semi-relatedly - due to Germany's balanced budget constitutional rules Germany is intending to halve its bilateral aid to Ukraine, instead it will rely more heavily on contributing to European aid to Ukraine.

There is an echo of this across Europe as the EU fiscal rules are being re-imposed after suspension for covid - the biggest challenge here (which is the context for a lot of the political ructions there), is France. Historically France has not always complied with EU fiscal rules - when he was Commissioner Juncker was asked why France wasn't being put into excessive deficit procedures and responded, with admirable honesty, "because it's France" But those days are gone - in part this was Macron's grand pitch for Europe - and the French budget deficit looks bad. A consequence of this, especially given the make up of the Assemblee Nationale is likely a President who is very strongly supportive of Ukraine and wants to do more but may find that increasingly challenging, not least for budgetary reasons (given that France's domestic budgets will need to be very austere very soon).

Separately Mario Draghi - again - announced a grand vision of increasing European competitiveness in a 300 page report he produced for the Commission. From what I've seen lots of very, very good stuff in there - basically built around using common debt at a European level to boost private investment. Lots for energy transition, investing in new industries, industrial policy generally and the need to build up European defence industries. In less than three hours Germany's Finance Minister rejected it, saying "joint EU borrowing will not solve the structural problems" and that this type of pooling would create "democratic and fiscal problems. Germany won't agree to this."

Meanwhile, as Daniela Gabor put it, Germany's energy policies (which mean energy is still at least four times the price for industry as it is in the US or China) is basically actively inflicting carbon shock therapy on its own industrial base:

(And worth pointing out is also broadly pushing against the EU moving too much against China or the US on trade...)

Today is just a lot of things coming together on migration, energy, fiscal constraint/debt fetishisation, trade/China and Ukraine. But when it all comes at once like that I only half jokingly wonder if Angela Merkel was actually a sleeper agent

(And not for the first time I think Draghi could be the saviour of Europe )

I know the Americans are mourning the decline of 90s style fiscal conservatism, all I can say from Europe in our second decade of austerity is that we should be so lucky

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Given that we're still collecting debt as if there's infinite money I'd say that there's 'austerity' and austerity.
And stupid energy policies result in stupid prizes/prices.

[The Brain]

Yeah. You have to really hate money, the environment, and human life to shut down fine working order nuclear power plants and keep burning coal.

[Zanza]

Meanwhile, as Daniela Gabor put it, Germany's energy policies (which mean energy is still at least four times the price for industry as it is in the US or China) is basically actively inflicting carbon shock therapy on its own industrial base:

What happened in 2018 to German energy policies that would explain this decline? I am aware of the extreme 2022 energy price hike. But that's now mostly mitigated. What energy policy caused this before 2022?

I think that energy is just one of many factors, some from public policy, others from private mismanagement that have caused the industrial decline.

[Tamas]

When were the nuclear power plants shut down to proactively protect the country from tsunami damage?

[The Brain]

When were the nuclear power plants shut down to proactively protect the country from tsunami damage?

The first in 2011, the last in 2023.

[Tamas]

When were the nuclear power plants shut down to proactively protect the country from tsunami damage?

The first in 2011, the last in 2023.

Peak Merkelism. Enact a policy with decades-long impact to quiet a hot-button discussion topic that's bound to be forgotten in a week.

[HVC]

When were the nuclear power plants shut down to proactively protect the country from tsunami damage?

The first in 2011, the last in 2023.

Peak Merkelism. Enact a policy with decades-long impact to quiet a hot-button discussion topic that's bound to be forgotten in a week.

With the added side effect of benefiting Russia.

[Josquius]

It's amazing how much absolute idiocy fukushima created.

[HVC]

It's amazing how much absolute idiocy fukushima created.

I blame the Simpsons.

[Zanza]

The price for electricity for industrial consumers in Germany. I can see the effect of the Ukraine war, but I find it hard to see the phase out of nuclear power between 2011 and 2023. Currently, prices are at 2017 levels.

[HVC]

I tried finding a graph that track Russian oil exports to Germany but couldn't (probably just bad at it). That could offset loses from the nuke plants, right?

[Zanza]

I tried finding a graph that track Russian oil exports to Germany but couldn't (probably just bad at it). That could offset loses from the nuke plants, right?

Germany has a relatively small share of gas powerplants and no oil powerplants. The significant amount of gas imported from Russia, especially with Nordstream, was mainly used in household heating and in industrial processes. Both of which can of course with different technology be electrified, which is now happening.