Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

It seems to me what you're proposing is sort of a top down approach to assessing fairness.

This rule is fair because Daddy made it, and he's a fair person.  But wait, I think this one rule is unfair.  Therefore all of Daddy's rules must be unfair.

(Is this inductive reasoning?  I wish I understood induction and deduction better.)

I on the other hand think people assess fairness from first principles.  (Deductively?)

People die from covid 19.  People contract covid 19 from human contact.  Therefore we must minimize human contact.

I don't think people reason at all, ever. I think we rationalise.

We have various perceptions, bits of evidence, indications and experiences. From that we have a reaction (which is obviously also shaped by our own experiences) which we then rationalise after the event.

So I suppose intuition? Intuitive reasoning? Is that a thing?

[Tamas]

The police chiefs told the police a few days ago to enforce the letter of the law not the intention of it, basically, because they did not argue that family Easter egg hunts and bird watching tours broke the spirit of the law.

How well this will work will be put to the test soon enough during Easter, when hundreds of thousands will wake up and think "Surely it will do no harm if me and my family go to X Park/Beach, there won't be anyone else!"

[Agelastus]

So, Eddy Large, of "Little and Large", has died after being infected with the coronavirus.

They were an amusing comedy duo in their day; not one of the greats, but passable.

[Sheilbh]

UK update on the numbers - another 569 deaths, which at least isn't accelerating. But as I say I think from government messages - it's expected to get worse. As I mentioned I'm not sure how the regional breakdown is working but it looks like London's now suffering 1-150 deaths a day.

Over 10k tests (just) at last

[Tamas]

Over 10k tests (just) at last

Surely if we clap hard enough this will speed up?

[celedhring]

+950 dead today. Which is our worst number, but matches de reported median time to death for Covid-19 (18 days) with the start of the quarantine. Hopefully things we'll get better as we're starting to get reports of pressure easing on hospitals. Barcelona's largest hospital reports available beds for the first time in a week.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't think people reason at all, ever. I think we rationalise.

We have various perceptions, bits of evidence, indications and experiences. From that we have a reaction (which is obviously also shaped by our own experiences) which we then rationalise after the event.

So I suppose intuition? Intuitive reasoning? Is that a thing?

Okey dokey.  I think we've reduced the disagreement to an essentially empirical question which it is impossible to resolve through the collection of data, so I propose we agree to disagree.  You go your way and I'll go mine.

[Josquius]

In other news, the crazy contagion spreads:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/engineer-allegedly-crash-train-usns-mercy-los-angeles/story?id=69926172&fbclid=IwAR1PcHEzUQZXihaA8kM2fDcV_veDn34ssKJwpxWs471mgOQGZRhwEqEuqwY

[mongers]

+950 dead today. Which is our worst number, but matches de reported median time to death for Covid-19 (18 days) with the start of the quarantine. Hopefully things we'll get better as we're starting to get reports of pressure easing on hospitals. Barcelona's largest hospital reports available beds for the first time in a week.

Very sad, but as you say slight glimpses of hope.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRtPD8Ah9w0

Former FDA Commissioner has been all over the news educating the public.  On the one hand what does a FDA Commissioner know about epidemiology, on the other he sounds like he really knows his shit.

Florida could blow up.  Governor just issued a stay in place order but exempted religious institutions.

If you want to simplify information intake, he says the one data point you should watch the closest is how many days it takes to double cases.  If you're doubling every 3,4 days you're still climbing the steep part, if you stretch out to 7,8,9,10 then you're in Korea type leveling off.

[Sheilbh]

Governor just issued a stay in place order but exempted religious institutions.

A fortnight before Easter that seems like an unhelpful exemption.

I think a lot Catholic dioceses are shutting down public worship, but given the stuff we've seen with evangelicals and Pentecostals I wouldn't be surprised if they went ahead with services because God'll protect his own

Also Tate is releasing free online tours of its two current exhibitions on Andy Warhol and Aubrey Beardsley for people who want diverting

[Caliga]

Florida could blow up.  Governor just issued a stay in place order but exempted religious institutions.

[The Minsky Moment]

Now this is what a police state looks like:

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has warned that anyone breaking the coronavirus lockdown on the island of Luzon may be shot by the military or the police, as the country fights to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Apparently he was undeterred by the threat of a sharply worded missive from QC Sumption.

[alfred russel]

FredoShelf: There are rules that each of you think are unfair at the moment.  Has this led you to break any rules that you think *are* fair?  Do you know anyone that has done this?

No one thinks that way.  No one commits a murder because they think the speed limit is too low.

I think the easy answer to this is that I am not sure what the rules are. There has been a lot more clarity starting yesterday in georgia with stay at home orders issued, but it is still very vague. For example: the CDC and state have been instructing to avoid groups of 10 or more. The obvious implication is that groups of 9 or less are okay--but I have the impression that it hasn't been okay to have a group of 9 over for dinner (this point is no longer ambiguous in my county post stay at home orders - issued yesterday).

The stay at home orders really don't make much sense on a few points. For example, I live with my girlfriend and have been going on walks with her in the evening. The stay at home order says that exercise is an acceptable reason to go outdoors. I think that covers us going on walks. However, you have to maintain 6 feet of distance. There is no exception for members of the same household. That is ridiculous and won't be following that--of course that won't harm anyone either.

What I'm extremely bitter about--is that I've spent months getting ready for climbing season and had a bunch of goals and they are now scratched. I get that gyms need to close, nonessential workplaces, etc. But I see no harm in driving somewhere and parking along the side of a road, hiking a few miles, and climbing / camping with a member of my household in a way highly unlikely to produce injuries. My opinion is that stopping climbing is arbitrary and pointless. If the consensus in the climbing community was aligned with me, I'd be on board with ignoring the rules, but that is not the way things have gone (to be fair, I bet they have, but not in the part of the community posting stuff on social media or also holding down professional jobs).

[Tamas]

Further indication that we lost weeks on trying to make Project Take It On The Chin To Protect Cummings' Stock Portfolio work:

The first known death of a patient with coronavirus in England occurred before March.

New figures from NHS England reveal that a patient died in a hospital in Liverpool University hospitals NHS foundation trust before March although no specific date is mentioned.

The data shows a total of six deaths occurred before 5 March, when the public was first notified of a death connected to the virus in hospitals in England.

However, the NHS figures indicate the death was previously reported in figures, although the actual date of death was not previously publicly known.