Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Re. testing in the UK. FFS

The UK Could Have Had Thousands Of Extra Coronavirus Tests Weeks Ago
Public Health England failed to follow up on a request in January to use the testing capabilities of the UK's animal health agency, which its staff say could carry out 40,000 tests a week.
Posted on April 1, 2020, at 8:34 p.m.
By Richard Holmes (Investigations Reporter) Alex Wickham (Political Editor) Alberto Nardelli (BuzzFeed News Europe Editor) Katie J.M. Baker (BuzzFeed News Investigative Reporter )

An "appalling" breakdown in communication between Public Health England and the government's animal health agency may have reduced the UK's coronavirus testing capacity by tens of thousands per week, according to internal documents and two scientists who work for the agency.

As the government faces mounting scrutiny over its lack of testing for COVID-19, employees at the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) told BuzzFeed News that they had been in discussions with Public Health England (PHE) about supporting coronavirus testing efforts for more than two months — but that PHE was still failing to use their equipment and expertise.

Evidence seen by BuzzFeed News shows that PHE sent APHA — the government agency that tests diseases among animals — conflicting information and requests about recruiting and training scientists, and using lab capacity and analytical equipment, suggesting shortcomings in planning and strategy that led to unnecessary delays.

In one internal email, seen by BuzzFeed News, APHA staff were told that increasing the country's coronavirus testing capacity was "work of the highest priority and importance for the UK".

But the agency's scientists were only informed of training requirements in the last few days — eight weeks after PHE first contacted the agency about recruiting volunteers from among its staff to work on coronavirus testing.

One employee at APHA said the agency had the "capacity to perform 40,000 tests a week for human coronavirus samples". They described the government's failure to use APHA to conduct testing as "a scandal".

Another APHA scientist told BuzzFeed News: "We're not even getting a consistent message about what they want us to do," adding that the miscommunication with PHE was "appalling".

Emails seen by BuzzFeed News show that PHE first contacted APHA at the end of January, requesting volunteers to help with a possible escalation in the coronavirus outbreak. The request for additional support followed the template used during the Ebola crisis in 2014.

But the APHA scientists told BuzzFeed News that, over the following two months, PHE failed to follow up on its request and then changed its mind about what it wanted help with, meaning that several weeks that could have been used to increase testing capacity and train volunteers were wasted.

On March 20, APHA staff were informed that PHE needed help setting up testing capacity at an APHA laboratory in Weybridge.

But four days later, PHE revised its request again, making a new call for volunteers at PHE's own labs. APHA staff were told that "technical difficulties" with the Weybridge lab meant it could take weeks to set up.

The emails don't indicate what those technical difficulties were nor do they say whether they were on PHE's of APHA's side.

It was only on Monday, March 30, that the volunteers were informed that they would be contacted for training, with a view to being ready to work in the PHE and NHS labs by mid-April.

APHA would also "loan critical analytical equipment" to help increase testing numbers to "100,000 PCR tests a day in some new testing facilities which are being set up," staff were told. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests are standard practice in labs. PCR samples can come from several different sites in the patient, such as a swab taken from inside the nose.


"Before things really kicked off there was an initial 'who has got certain skills / who has something to offer?' should things escalate," one of the scientists said. "So there was a preemptive request but that hasn't been acted on at all."

APHA volunteers received "no follow-up on that at all" between the end of January and the end of March, the scientist confirmed.

According to the other APHA scientist, PHE began in January "initially asking for help with testing, then reversing this and asking to borrow testing equipment, and now indicating that they will likely need help again".

"I would describe this as a communications disaster," they said. "It appears they still do not know what they are doing with respect to testing capacity."

APHA is an executive agency of the Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA). Both PHE and DEFRA were sent a detailed set of questions ahead of publication.

A PHE spokesperson said: "There have been various discussions at all levels of government in the course of the development of the strategic response to the epidemic."

The spokesperson added: "Scientists from across government have been redeployed to help increase testing capacity for Public Health England and NHS England laboratory testing of hospital patients."

DEFRA did not respond by the time of publication.

As of Monday, 152,979 people had been tested for the coronavirus in the UK.

So even if it took a good while to set up APHA for testing - we could have run double the number of tests if civil servants in PHE or APHA had sent a chaser email

The article is clearly from the APHA side, but I don't get them waiting for 8 weeks for someone to follow up instead of being like - "Hi, I see you're in a national crisis. Just wanted to check if we can help out?" This is the most British fuck up. People literally not getting tested in a pandemic because chasing for a response is embarrassing and awkward

[mongers]

So even if it took a good while to set up APHA for testing - we could have run double the number of tests if civil servants in PHE or APHA had sent a chaser email

The article is clearly from the APHA side, but I don't get them waiting for 8 weeks for someone to follow up instead of being like - "Hi, I see you're in a national crisis. Just wanted to check if we can help out?" This is the most British fuck up. People literally not getting tested in a pandemic because chasing for a response is embarrassing and awkward

NHS staff, Lions led by donkeys.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, ultimately this is with Hancock and Eustice - and surely they should have been at least occasionally mentioning it at some level.

But this feels, even worse - middle-managed by donkeys.

[Fate]

From the Wall Street Journal:
Italy's Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported

".... In the wider Bergamo province, which comprises the city and more than 240 small towns and has a total population of 1.1 million, 2,060 people died in March from the virus. But some 4,500 more people died in the province in March than a year earlier, according to a new joint study by the local Eco di Bergamo newspaper and research firm InTwig that took data from 91 towns in the province."

Italy might really have ~40k total dead to date if Bergamo excess mortality data applies to other other northern provinces.

[mongers]

From the Wall Street Journal:
Italy's Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported

".... In the wider Bergamo province, which comprises the city and more than 240 small towns and has a total population of 1.1 million, 2,060 people died in March from the virus. But some 4,500 more people died in the province in March than a year earlier, according to a new joint study by the local Eco di Bergamo newspaper and research firm InTwig that took data from 91 towns in the province."

Italy might really have ~40k total dead to date if Bergamo excess mortality data applies to other other northern provinces.

Interesting.

Is this more evidence against the notion that 'when the pandemic is over, a huge number of mild undiagnosed cases will have been postulated and so the overall death rate will be 1% or less' ?

[Admiral Yi]

FredoShelf: There are rules that each of you think are unfair at the moment.  Has this led you to break any rules that you think *are* fair?  Do you know anyone that has done this?

No one thinks that way.  No one commits a murder because they think the speed limit is too low.

[Oexmelin]

No one thinks that way.  No one commits a murder because they think the speed limit is too low.

Everybody thinks that way. They just don't pick the most extreme examples at both end of the spectrum.

[Admiral Yi]

Everybody thinks that way. They just don't pick the most extreme examples at both end of the spectrum.

What kinds of examples do they pick?

[mongers]

Back to the testing issue, the UK's nearest neighbour Ireland has "As of 30 March, 30,213 tests had been carried out" wheras the UK has tested about 152,000 out of a population twenty time's Irelands.

[Sheilbh]

No one thinks that way.  No one commits a murder because they think the speed limit is too low.

Everybody thinks that way. They just don't pick the most extreme examples at both end of the spectrum.

The other point is that those are two separate rules. But that's not what we're talking about. It's not that a perception of unfairness discredits every law. We're talking about the same rule - it's the regulations around quarantine. So it's like asking if you think the quarantine rules are unfair - which no-one is arguing - then would that cause you to shoplift? But I think if there are perceptions that loads of laws are unfair or the police and justice system are arbitrary then it can discredit everything - as I say I think that's why different  communities have different experiences of the same laws. 

So do you think people are more likely to speed if they think the speed limit is too low? Or if they think loads of people get away with it? Or that it's just jobsworths and traffic cops who care about this?

I think all of those are true - it's the Jeremey Clarkson world. I think that's also why, in my limited experience (I can't drive so I don't pay attention to this and it could be nonsense), the messaging on speeding isn't how many people get fined - it returns to the sort-of source of authority: why are we doing this. So police messaging will be around really bad accidents caused by people speeding or saying that you are twice as likely to kill someone in an accident if you're going at 30mph than 20mph.

FredoShelf: There are rules that each of you think are unfair at the moment.  Has this led you to break any rules that you think *are* fair?  Do you know anyone that has done this?

I mean drugs is the obvious one. I don't have a particularly thought through opinion on it but the laws seemed daft to me. It always seems fairly low risk and like you'd be fairly unlucky to get caught. I don't think it's particularly fair in general. So yeah - I'm not sure for me, personally, that stacks. I wouldn't say that's a set of laws I think are proportionate, fair, high-risk or that I really respect. I've broken that law and literally every friend I have has broken the law. I imagine a huge chunk of the country including most of the current cabinet is the same.

It's shifted now, but probably the same with underage drinking when I was young.

[Admiral Yi]

So do you think people are more likely to speed if they think the speed limit is too low? Or if they think loads of people get away with it? Or that it's just jobsworths and traffic cops who care about this?

But that's not the argument you've been making.  You've been saying if people think the Easter egg rule is unfair, they'll start jogging twice a day in packs of 12 strangers, or going to dinner parties and coughing on each other.

You've specifically said that if we enforce this tyrannical, arbitrary, grossly unjust Easter egg rule then people will revolt and break other rules.

[Eddie Teach]

twice as likely to kill someone in an accident if you're going at 30mph than 20mph..

If you can't avoid pedestrians at 30 mph, you shouldn't be behind the wheel.

[Eddie Teach]

So do you think people are more likely to speed if they think the speed limit is too low? Or if they think loads of people get away with it? Or that it's just jobsworths and traffic cops who care about this?

But that's not the argument you've been making.  You've been saying if people think the Easter egg rule is unfair, they'll start jogging twice a day in packs of 12 strangers, or going to dinner parties and coughing on each other.

You've specifically said that if we enforce this tyrannical, arbitrary, grossly unjust Easter egg rule then people will revolt and break other rules.

He said it wasn't a rule but a police overreach.

[Admiral Yi]

He said it wasn't a rule but a police overreach.

It amounts to the same thing.

[Eddie Teach]

Nobody elected the cops.