Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Tamas]

Ok I think done for the first time was nice, but this clapping business will get very old very fast. How about they get some tests and/or some extra money for all their troubles instead?

[Syt]

834,000 jobs lost in Spain in March. Worst drop in history.

Numbers are 50% higher in Austria compared to last year this time. In Tyrol the year over year numbers have tripled.

[Sheilbh]

834,000 jobs lost in Spain in March. Worst drop in history.

Saw yesterday that 950,000 people have applied for benefits in the last fortnight (normally level = 100,000) despite the various furlough and government support scheme. Although that might include a lot of freelancers as they need to claim benefits until June when their income replacement scheme comes online (backdated) or if they don't have a tax history because they started working free-lance in the last year. So not sure on the employment figures, but it's probably going to be bad.

[Sheilbh]

But that's not the argument you've been making.  You've been saying if people think the Easter egg rule is unfair, they'll start jogging twice a day in packs of 12 strangers, or going to dinner parties and coughing on each other.

You've specifically said that if we enforce this tyrannical, arbitrary, grossly unjust Easter egg rule then people will revolt and break other rules.

Right - I don't really see the difference with the speeding example. The vast majority of people are following the rules voluntarily, because they're buying into them.

There's a risk their support for those rules will be undermined if, as in the specific examples, the police go beyond the actual regulations their enforcing. It would be beyond the police's power, it would be arbitrary and different moving from one police force to another and there's a risk it creates the perception that it's not proportionate because people see corner shops being harassed for selling Easter eggs and don't understand how that is going to help stop transmission, so are there any other rules that they might look at again. But my big issue with this is just that the police aren't enforcing medical or scientific guidance. The science and medical guys have advised the government who have issued quarantine regulations which set out when we can leave the house etc. The police's job is to enforce those regulations, not to enforce press conferences or what they think should be in the regulations. If it needs to be stricter that's a call for the government.

Separately I think there's a risk that if the government make it stricter they could undermine the perception that these rules are proportionate. It would certainly need a lot of communication to explain why extra measures are neeeded. And we may get there on things like restricting the location of exercise or banning members of the same household from going out together. If we get there then the government need to explain to people why it's necessary, and why they should follow it because that's likely to get more voluntary compliance. But even then there's still a risk, if you go too far, it undermines support for the quarantine regulations because people think it's not proportionate, or it's unfair, or it's perceived as political not based on medical/scientific advice.

So I think both of those points are similar to the speeding example and my point is - if you take a Jeremy Clarkson view of speeding rules, my suspicion is that doesn't just apply when you're in a 20mph zone. You are more likely to speed with any speed limit. That's what I hope we avoid - as I say I think the toughest time and the time we might need quite strict enforcement is when we're on the downward slope after peaking. I think it'll be an interesting challenge for all governments to get their message right that things are going in the right direction but we still need people to stay in their homes etc and I'm still really unsure how we transition out of this. Especially when (optimistically) it's May/June, the weather's nice, the kids have been cooped up for two-three months.

[Sheilbh]

Now there will be a 'clap for carers' in the UK.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/second-clap-carers-tribute-planned-21794022

Not sure. I mean I'll take part - it's the closest I get to social interaction at the minute so it's quite nice.

But I feel they needed to build up to this a little bit more.

What's this obsession with testing about? If you are sick in any way, you stay at home. If you are very sick you go to a hospital and hope to live. What is testing supposed to achieve in all this?

I see that you might test staff and the very sick, but what is the point of spending lots of resources to test the general populace?

So testing staff, especially with the antibody test is key in getting them back to work.

I think you are probably right that in terms of reducing the impact of the disease testing is less important and I think it probably makes sense to focus on the sick (and care homes, prisons etc). But I think in the long-term widespread community testing is probably going to be key to how we move out of these emergency measures and social distancing.

Until there's a vaccine at least I think it's likely that the new normal will be: testing, masks outdoors and self-isolation when sick.

Edit: Also, slightly terrifying near-miss when a major London hospital almost ran out of oxygen for the ventilators
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/02/london-hospital-almost-runs-out-oxygen-coronavirus-patients

Edit: And for mongers - it seems the approach to testing may be decided at trust level. So the reason Sheffield has so many positives is, in part, because they're testing a lot more than other places:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/misleading-and-alarming-sheffields-coronavirus-figures

[Threviel]

What's this obsession with testing about? If you are sick in any way, you stay at home. If you are very sick you go to a hospital and hope to live. What is testing supposed to achieve in all this?

I see that you might test staff and the very sick, but what is the point of spending lots of resources to test the general populace?

So testing staff, especially with the antibody test is key in getting them back to work.

I think you are probably right that in terms of reducing the impact of the disease testing is less important and I think it probably makes sense to focus on the sick (and care homes, prisons etc). But I think in the long-term widespread community testing is probably going to be key to how we move out of these emergency measures and social distancing.

Until there's a vaccine at least I think it's likely that the new normal will be: testing, masks outdoors and self-isolation when sick.

The assumption here right now seems to be that 100'-500' has Corona and that it will have infected almost everyone at the end of May. Sure, there will be a lot of future analysis of the spread and lots to learn if we test everyone all the time, but I feel that there might be more sensible ways of spending scarce medical resources.

Swedish health authorities has from the beginning worked on the assumption that Corona is far more widely spread than what the testing indicate, especially in China. And also that it will at some time spread in the population, there is no way of stopping it, only delaying the spread.

So yeah, test the ones needing it, but I don't really understand the obsession with general testing. For the general population no new information comes from a test.

[Tamas]

Now there will be a 'clap for carers' in the UK.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/second-clap-carers-tribute-planned-21794022

Not sure. I mean I'll take part - it's the closest I get to social interaction at the minute so it's quite nice.

But I feel they needed to build up to this a little bit more.

I was happily partaking last time but I think I am going to start skipping it. Coming up with this weekly cap idea in the midst of reveals that nobody really gave a dam about NHS staff safety makes this a condescending cheap substitute for real action.

[Maladict]

I was happily partaking last time but I think I am going to start skipping it. Coming up with this weekly cap idea in the midst of reveals that nobody really gave a dam about NHS staff safety makes this a condescending cheap substitute for real action.

We only had one, which happened well before it all started and hasn't been repeated since. Seemed to be more about people seeing social media posts from Italy and wanted to have their own.

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/apr/02/uk-coronavirus-live-news-updates-covid-19-testing?page=with:block-5e85c11f8f087564da1e4547#block-5e85c11f8f087564da1e4547

The family of an NHS worker who died suddenly from Covid-19 after treating patients with only gloves for protection is appealing for help to pay for his funeral.

Thomas Harvey, a 57-year-old healthcare assistant who had worked for the NHS for more than 20 years, fell ill after treating a patient who later tested positive for coronavirus.

His family had called 999 twice the week before he died and were told it was "not an emergency" though he was breathing badly.

If you would like to make a contribution, his family's GoFundMe page is here.

The BBC has more on this story.

[Sheilbh]

So weirdly I've just been tested.

I signed up for the Flu Survey and they asked if I'd be willing to take a test, if selected. Obviously I was and it arrived this morning. It's different type of swab to the one Syt posted about so I assume it's because they're trying out other tests that maybe could be quicker/less intrusive.

Doubt I'll hear back because it's not really for me

[frunk]

The assumption here right now seems to be that 100'-500' has Corona and that it will have infected almost everyone at the end of May. Sure, there will be a lot of future analysis of the spread and lots to learn if we test everyone all the time, but I feel that there might be more sensible ways of spending scarce medical resources.

Swedish health authorities has from the beginning worked on the assumption that Corona is far more widely spread than what the testing indicate, especially in China. And also that it will at some time spread in the population, there is no way of stopping it, only delaying the spread.

So yeah, test the ones needing it, but I don't really understand the obsession with general testing. For the general population no new information comes from a test.

There are several reasons.  One is that with testing you can allocate resources ahead of time to an area if you see the number of cases going up, before the situation gets critical there.  Having a 1-2 week warning can literally be lifesaving.  If social distancing works and it slows or stops the disease's progress, it will be critical to know exactly where it currently is.  If you do then you can institute more limited quarantines/isolations rather than shutting almost everything down.  If you don't do the testing it will mean a much longer period of general shutdown.

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/apr/02/uk-coronavirus-live-news-updates-covid-19-testing?page=with:block-5e85b3a68f087564da1e44b0#block-5e85b3a68f087564da1e44b0

The Labour MP and deputy leadership candidate Dawn Butler has shared that her uncle has died after contracting Covid-19 in hospital.

In a post on Twitter, the Brent Central MP urged the government to test everyone who works in hospitals "without delay". She said:

My uncle had a fall, he didn't have Covid-19. He caught it in hospital and has now sadly died from Covid-19.

Just a few weeks ago we buried his only son. We are devastated as a family but I'm also angry.

Government needs to test everyone who works in the hospitals without delay!

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rTnwz2m5L8

How is it possible that cruise ships are still coming back to port this late in the game? 

[Admiral Yi]

Right - I don't really see the difference with the speeding example. The vast majority of people are following the rules voluntarily, because they're buying into them.

There's a risk their support for those rules will be undermined if, as in the specific examples, the police go beyond the actual regulations their enforcing.

I thought you had been saying that if some rules are perceived as unreasonable, e.g. twit watching and Easter egg shopping, people will start to break rules they consider reasonable.  If that's not what you're saying, please tell me.

It was on this understanding that I brought up the speeding and murder analogy.

[Sheilbh]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rTnwz2m5L8

How is it possible that cruise ships are still coming back to port this late in the game? 

It's crazy. Guardian did an article and there's at least 10 cruise ships out there with 10,000 passengers and crew:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/stranded-at-sea-cruise-ships-around-the-world-are-adrift-as-ports-turn-them-away

It's really weird.