Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Tamas]

I am afraid no matter how bad it gets here, the US will manage to make as look good and prepared.

And to be fair, it seems like they managed to build the Nightingale hospital earlier than what it took Italy or China to build such hospitals, in terms of the severity of the situation. Well, either that or we are not being told of the true severity.

[Legbiter]

Preliminary study out by University of Nebraska researchers. According to this health care workers have to assume airborne transmission. 

Lack of evidence on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics has led to shifting isolation guidelines between airborne and droplet isolation precautions. During the initial isolation of 13 individuals confirmed positive with COVID-19 infection, air and surface samples were collected in eleven isolation rooms to examine viral shedding from isolated individuals. While all individuals were confirmed positive for SARS-CoV-2, symptoms and viral shedding to the environment varied considerably. Many commonly used items, toilet facilities, and air samples had evidence of viral contamination, indicating that SARS-CoV-2 is shed to the environment as expired particles, during toileting, and through contact with fomites. Disease spread through both direct (droplet and person-to-person) as well as indirect contact (contaminated objects and airborne transmission) are indicated, supporting the use of airborne isolation precautions

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.23.20039446v2

[Sheilbh]

Farmer lady sides with police tyranny, asks people not to be walking around and touching their fences and gates needlessly, also maybe not leave gates open if they don't have to:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbUlZYLpfsY

As I say, we may need to be stricter but change the rules. It's up to the government to do that by changing the law the police enforce, not the police to do it of their own accord. And obviously if you're in a field with a dog and the farmer asks you to move on because they're lambing, you should. Staying on the roads or on paths and not walking through gates/stiles, also seems sensible - hopefully people will see it and listen.

Derbyshire Police Chief Constable have said the drone video wasn't about naming and shaming individuals it was just to start a conversation.

Meanwhile in my neighbourhood a local Church has been selling a £91 "plague protection kit" which is actually just oil and red string

[Legbiter]

I am afraid no matter how bad it gets here, the US will manage to make as look good and prepared.

And to be fair, it seems like they managed to build the Nightingale hospital earlier than what it took Italy or China to build such hospitals, in terms of the severity of the situation. Well, either that or we are not being told of the true severity.

Yeah, also maybe structural weaknesses inherent in the federal nature of the US itself. It'll come down to the smallest local level fighting this. Some US states will be excellent, others not so. The best the higher federal echelons can do is coordinate wartime production of supplies and medicine. Also helicopter money/rationing cards once a couple months have passed.

[Maximus]

My understanding is that while they've been able to detect the virus on stand-alone surfaces for up to several days, it's no longer a live virus.

The live virus only survives outside of a host for a few hours at most.

I haven't caught up on this thread, so maybe it has already been addressed, but I don't think that's accurate. https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

[Admiral Yi]

As I say, we may need to be stricter but change the rules. It's up to the government to do that by changing the law the police enforce, not the police to do it of their own accord. And obviously if you're in a field with a dog and the farmer asks you to move on because they're lambing, you should. Staying on the roads or on paths and not walking through gates/stiles, also seems sensible - hopefully people will see it and listen.

And if they don't?

[Sheilbh]

Again, these same issues are present in Spain. The fundamental problem here is that everybody is chasing PPEs and tests. Yes, there's been a big component of "These Chinese/Italian/Spaniards can't help themselves, this surely won't happen to us Italian/Spaniards/*Insert Western Country*" that's led to further unpreparedness, but right now everybody is in the business.

Yeah. I mean I sort of think of it and the shopping. We have these just-in-time, lean, efficient supply chains for food which work really well but the slightest bit of pressure (and in the UK the evidence is that 3% of people were buying significantly more items, the other 97% were buying a little bit more than normal) and shelves are empty despite there not being a fundamental issue of supply or production. With PPE and test compoonents it's the entire world trying to buy the same products at once, in huge quantities - so even more robust supply chains are going to struggle.

From what I understand in the UK there's a big issue with PPE of actually distributing it, so we've bought lots but it's not being distributed efficiently and I think the military are helping.

As I say I think one thing we're going to see after this is over is either medical supplies being treated like national security items - so you have and need national manufacturers or people who can re-tool easily - or we become far more tolerant of inefficiency. So actually we are comfortable with stocks of equipment and components sitting in warehouses, in case they're needed - and in terms of health care we maybe tolerate an inefficient NHS with more capacity when there's a crisis or even a bad flu season.

And to be fair, it seems like they managed to build the Nightingale hospital earlier than what it took Italy or China to build such hospitals, in terms of the severity of the situation. Well, either that or we are not being told of the true severity.

I think that's a really impressive project and there's three more in other areas that might be built - I've heard there's 10 sites chosen nationwide if necessary. But in terms of severity the mere plans for these - and that the Nightingale hospital includes two morgues is part of why I think we are still very much at the bottom of the hill/what the government's expecting is coming our way.

[Tamas]

Meanwhile in my neighbourhood a local Church has been selling a £91 "plague protection kit" which is actually just oil and red string

Surely that's criminal?

[Sheilbh]

As I say, we may need to be stricter but change the rules. It's up to the government to do that by changing the law the police enforce, not the police to do it of their own accord. And obviously if you're in a field with a dog and the farmer asks you to move on because they're lambing, you should. Staying on the roads or on paths and not walking through gates/stiles, also seems sensible - hopefully people will see it and listen.

And if they don't?

Then it's not against the law/current rules and it's up to the government to change it, not the police.

As I say on a wider, fundamental point I'm not sure we need to be stricter to enforce against the 5% of people who aren't following the rules if that endangers the voluntary compliance of the other 95%, but I might change my mind on that if there's evidence that there's lots of non-compliance and the benefit of being stricter outweighs the cost of undermining public support.

And - which is where the behavioural scientists may be useful - fatigue will be real I think amplifying examples of people exhibiting the correct behaviour will work more for the police than amplifying the examples of people breaking the rules. My suspicion is the most difficult point around this will be probably after two months when, hopefully, we've plateaued so case numbers and deaths will be falling, people will be feeling it's less important to stick to the rules and it'll be May so chances are the sun will be out. That may be a time when the police need to really crack down (within the actual law they've been given) and advertise that they're catching people and enforcing against them.

[celedhring]

Again, these same issues are present in Spain. The fundamental problem here is that everybody is chasing PPEs and tests. Yes, there's been a big component of "These Chinese/Italian/Spaniards can't help themselves, this surely won't happen to us Italian/Spaniards/*Insert Western Country*" that's led to further unpreparedness, but right now everybody is in the business.

Yeah. I mean I sort of think of it and the shopping. We have these just-in-time, lean, efficient supply chains for food which work really well but the slightest bit of pressure (and in the UK the evidence is that 3% of people were buying significantly more items, the other 97% were buying a little bit more than normal) and shelves are empty despite there not being a fundamental issue of supply or production. With PPE and test compoonents it's the entire world trying to buy the same products at once, in huge quantities - so even more robust supply chains are going to struggle.

From what I understand in the UK there's a big issue with PPE of actually distributing it, so we've bought lots but it's not being distributed efficiently and I think the military are helping.

As I say I think one thing we're going to see after this is over is either medical supplies being treated like national security items - so you have and need national manufacturers or people who can re-tool easily - or we become far more tolerant of inefficiency. So actually we are comfortable with stocks of equipment and components sitting in warehouses, in case they're needed - and in terms of health care we maybe tolerate an inefficient NHS with more capacity when there's a crisis or even a bad flu season.

And to be fair, it seems like they managed to build the Nightingale hospital earlier than what it took Italy or China to build such hospitals, in terms of the severity of the situation. Well, either that or we are not being told of the true severity.

I think that's a really impressive project and there's three more in other areas that might be built - I've heard there's 10 sites chosen nationwide if necessary. But in terms of severity the mere plans for these - and that the Nightingale hospital includes two morgues is part of why I think we are still very much at the bottom of the hill/what the government's expecting is coming our way.

We (as in the west) will surely try to source this locally instead of depending on China. Spain has already announced plans for creating a strategic reserve of medical supplies.

Regarding building our health care systems with excess capacity, I hope there's a better solution. I'm a big proponent of public health care spending, but an UCI that sits idle 90% of the time is wasted resources that could have been directed to primary care. Then again, one of the issues Spain is facing is that we built our system giving priority to primary care while mantaining a relatively small but well equipped capacity to adress life-or-death situations, and that system is now being inadequate to adress a crisis like this one.

I wonder how feasible would it be to build "surge capacity"for occasions like this.

[Sheilbh]

Meanwhile in my neighbourhood a local Church has been selling a £91 "plague protection kit" which is actually just oil and red string

Surely that's criminal?

They are being investigated by the authorities, so I assume so. This doesn't seem accurate:

"It is by faith that you can be saved from the Coronavirus pandemic by covering yourself with the Divine Plague Protection Oil and wearing the Scarlet Yarn on your body.

"That is why I want to encourage you, if you haven't done so already, to get your Divine Plague Protection Kit today!"

You can also buy "sacrificial seeds" which can protect you and your family for up to £910 (for family coverage). Apparently the Lord informed the self-declared prophet of the church how to make all this stuff

[Maximus]

I kind of assumed that was a historical reference and/or satire/gag and not to be taken seriously.

[Admiral Yi]

As I say on a wider, fundamental point I'm not sure we need to be stricter to enforce against the 5% of people who aren't following the rules if that endangers the voluntary compliance of the other 95%, but I might change my mind on that if there's evidence that there's lots of non-compliance and the benefit of being stricter outweighs the cost of undermining public support.

This is the part of your position that makes absolutely no sense to me.

A person who is complying with the rules is presumably doing so for one of two reasons: he thinks the rules are worth following, or he is afraid of getting punished for breaking them.

Why would this person, upon seeing some else get punished for breaking the rules, be thereby more inclined to break the rules?

Because the punishment shows that the rule is not worth following?  "Gee, that drone shaming was awful, so now I think the chances of transmission aren't really that high?"

Because he has now decided he in fact really likes to be punished?

[Legbiter]

They are being investigated by the authorities, so I assume so. This doesn't seem accurate:

"It is by faith that you can be saved from the Coronavirus pandemic by covering yourself with the Divine Plague Protection Oil and wearing the Scarlet Yarn on your body.

"That is why I want to encourage you, if you haven't done so already, to get your Divine Plague Protection Kit today!"

You can also buy "sacrificial seeds" which can protect you and your family for up to £910 (for family coverage). Apparently the Lord informed the self-declared prophet of the church how to make all this stuff

To my suspicious Lutheran mind that seems awfully close to buying an indulgence. 

Sola Fidei!. 

[The Minsky Moment]

The Biden senile thing bugs me - he has a speech impairment that he has struggled with his whole life.  It's not an age thing, he's always had this issue. Biden is no genius - but he is miles above the mental 3rd grader that occupies the White House with his best words.