Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Legbiter]

Here we're daily finding a few new cases, most are in quarantine but some are not. Good news is that they're popping up among young adults and not in our care homes. It's interesting that the numbers of infected travelers detected at the border seems to be rising almost in proportion to the increases we're seeing in most European countries.

[alfred russel]

@Shelf I think over time it's likely to mutate into being less dangerous.  There's no real evolutionary advantage to COVID killing someone, its imperative is only to spread as widely and successfully as possible by getting people sick enough to trigger an autoimmune response that results in them expelling virulent droplets.  I believe this is what happened with syphilis (wasn't syphilis famously the reason behind some Spanish siege in Italy failing, because a lot of the soldiers contracted it and they were dropping like flies?) and probably influenza too.

Early syphilis had a massive mortality rate. The evolutionary pressure to reduce the virulence of covid is not going to be so high with a mortality around 0.5-1.0%.

[Valmy]

@Shelf I think over time it's likely to mutate into being less dangerous.  There's no real evolutionary advantage to COVID killing someone, its imperative is only to spread as widely and successfully as possible by getting people sick enough to trigger an autoimmune response that results in them expelling virulent droplets.  I believe this is what happened with syphilis (wasn't syphilis famously the reason behind some Spanish siege in Italy failing, because a lot of the soldiers contracted it and they were dropping like flies?) and probably influenza too.

Early syphilis had a massive mortality rate. The evolutionary pressure to reduce the virulence of covid is not going to be so high with a mortality around 0.5-1.0%.

And it may be more fatal over the long term and just hang around until it is ready to fuck you like TB.

[Valmy]

This seems bad? https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/566-coronavirus-cases-reported-university-alabama-less-week-classes-started-n1237993

Bait and switch scam. Require the students to report on campus for in-person teaching, wait for inevitable mass outbreak and then move all classes online while you pocket the full tuition fee.  Add in the ridiculous financial reliance for many universities on their college team sports and the whole rotten edifice was extremely fragile to just this type of pandemic.

You are not wrong.

But universities do not usually get much from their sports teams, the sports teams usually blow it all themselves in a ridiculous arms race to overpay coaches and make gold plated locker rooms.

[Maladict]

According to the Guardian beside the Hong Kong guy two Europeans have also been confirmed as having been reinfected.

If reinfecting in a space of a few months is a thing then perhaps what we need is a treatment not a vaccine?

From what I'm reading a vaccine may still work.

[crazy canuck]

According to the Guardian beside the Hong Kong guy two Europeans have also been confirmed as having been reinfected.

If reinfecting in a space of a few months is a thing then perhaps what we need is a treatment not a vaccine?

There was also a case of reinfection in BC.

@ Sheilbh,  Yes, this is probably going to be something we get an inoculation for on a regular basis.

[Caliga]

Early syphilis had a massive mortality rate. The evolutionary pressure to reduce the virulence of covid is not going to be so high with a mortality around 0.5-1.0%.

Right but I'm saying there is no evolutionary advantage to COVID actually killing someone, so mutations are not likely to be carried forward to make the disease more deadly, just more virulent (which it already seems to be plenty virulent as-is).

[Tamas]

I think Sheilbh is right and we are going to end up with flu times two, with Covid-19 being virulent and deadly enough to pretty much become a flu-level annual issue on its own. I guess in ten years "the flu" will include in its meaning covid-19 as well, for everyday considerations at least.

[grumbler]

Eh, he's being pretty open about his aggression.

Exactly.  I've never hidden my disdain for emo thinking.  I've also never indicated that I am at "all gung ho for America,"  but to emos anyone who doesn't share their emo view must have the opposite emo view.   

[grumbler]

This seems bad? https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/566-coronavirus-cases-reported-university-alabama-less-week-classes-started-n1237993

Bait and switch scam. Require the students to report on campus for in-person teaching, wait for inevitable mass outbreak and then move all classes online while you pocket the full tuition fee.  Add in the ridiculous financial reliance for many universities on their college team sports and the whole rotten edifice was extremely fragile to just this type of pandemic.

You are not wrong.

But universities do not usually get much from their sports teams, the sports teams usually blow it all themselves in a ridiculous arms race to overpay coaches and make gold plated locker rooms.

Well, that, and the fact that tuition is the same online as in person, but why quibble when you can rant?  Where the money comes in is with the foreign students; they are not allowed in the US unless they are scheduled for at least one in-person class. 

And you are correct that no school makes any significant money off their sports teams, as even those programs that don't cost the school money spend all their revenue on themselves.  Michigan, for instance, turned over $1 million to the university after revenues of $197 million and total expenses of $196 million in 2019.  The vast majority of programs lose money, and not having an athletic season actually saves those schools significant cash.

[Syt]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/26/health/cdc-guidelines-coronavirus-testing/index.html?utm_source=twCNN&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2020-08-26T11%3A27%3A13&utm_term=link

Updated CDC guidelines now say people exposed to coronavirus may not need to be tested

(CNN)In a shift that perplexed some doctors, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has changed its Covid-19 testing guidelines to say some people without symptoms may not need to be tested, even if they've been in close contact with someone known to have the virus.

Previously, the CDC said viral testing was appropriate for people with recent or suspected exposure, even if they were asymptomatic.

Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician and public health professor at George Washington University who was previously Baltimore's health commissioner, said on CNN's New Day on Wednesday that the testing guideline changes make no sense.
"These are exactly the people who should be tested," Wen said, giving the example of a person exposed at work who wants a test so they can protect their family at home.

Here's what the CDC website said previously: "Testing is recommended for all close contacts of persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Because of the potential for asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission, it is important that contacts of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection be quickly identified and tested."

The CDC changed the site on Monday. Here's what it says now: "If you have been in close contact (within 6 feet) of a person with a COVID-19 infection for at least 15 minutes but do not have symptoms, you do not necessarily need a test unless you are a vulnerable individual or your health care provider or State or local public health officials recommend you take one."

Those who don't have Covid-19 symptoms and haven't been in close contact with someone with a known infection do not need a test, the updated guidelines say.

"Not everyone needs to be tested," the agency's website says. "If you do get tested, you should self-quarantine/isolate at home pending test results and follow the advice of your health care provider or a public health professional."

The CDC guidelines say if someone has symptoms and they're mild, a health care provider "may advise a COVID-19 test," and if symptoms are severe, people should contact a health care provider or seek emergency care.

"It is important to realize that you can be infected and spread the virus but feel well and have no symptoms," the updated CDC site says, noting that local public health officials might request asymptomatic "healthy people" be tested, depending on cases and spread in an area.

In its pandemic planning scenarios, the CDC says its current best estimate is that 40% of infections are asymptomatic and 50% of transmission occur before symptoms occur.

The CDC did not explain the change, and doctors were puzzled by it.

"I'm concerned that these recommendations suggest someone who has had substantial exposure to a person with Covid-19 now doesn't need to get tested," Wen said.

"This is key to contact tracing, especially given that up to 50% of all transmission is due to people who do not have symptoms. One wonders why these guidelines were changed -- is it to justify continued deficit of testing?"

A spokesperson at the US Department of Health and Human Services denied the change would affect contact tracing efforts, which most public health officials say is key to any eventual control of the virus. "The updated guidance does not undermine contact tracing or any other types of surveillance testing," the spokesperson said.

HHS said people should consult with their doctors or with local health officials to decide if they need to be tested.

"The guidance fully supports public health surveillance testing, done in a proactive way through federal, state, and local public health officials," the spokesperson said.

Because everyone knows, asymptomatic people can't spread the infection!

[merithyn]

This is honestly what terrifies me. The CDC is supposed to be an apolitical, scientific subsection of the government that we can rely on for factual information and guidance. I know in the past there have been some concerns, but this is... scary.

[Tamas]

There'll be incredible improvements in numbers of positive cases before the election! Much success!

[Syt]

Kudlow has already been talking about the pandemic in the past tense.

[Tamas]

TBF it seems to be working fine for Hungary. There are soaring numbers all around but there's very little increase there in official numbers, which "might" be correlated to the fact that barely any testing is being done. There are barely any restrictions left, either. I guess its a winning PR strategy as long as hospitalisations remain low enough for the public to not notice.