US-Iran War Has Begun! Iran launches dozens of ballistic missiles!

[DGuller]

What are the odds that a plane would crash in Iran exactly on a day that Iran might expect aerial attacks?  I think the odds are overwhelming we have another MH17 situation.

[Berkut]

What are the odds that a plane would crash in Iran exactly on a day that Iran might expect aerial attacks?  I think the odds are overwhelming we have another MH17 situation.

It's a weird world full of weird coincidences.

However, the timing is rather astounding, and the description of the crash sounds very much unlike any other plane crash I've ever heard of happening shortly after takeoff. Everything seemed perfectly fine with a almost brand new plane and experienced pilots. Then it went from normal ascent at 8000 feet to an immediate crash into the ground without any calls from the pilots indicating a problem. What could cause that? Even total engine failure would allow the plane to glide for some time, and communicate.

I think the timing is coincidental, but the circumstances of the crash itself seem much more bizarre.

[Barrister]

I'm very cautious with language like "the odds are overwhelming we have another MH17 situation".

I've mentioned before the story about visiting New York for the Remembrance Day/Veterans Day long weekend in 2001 - two months after 9/11.  The day I went to leave a plane went down after takeoff in NYC.  People went nuts assuming the worst - but it really just was a random accident.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines_Flight_587

But absolutely I would investigate whether Iranian AA defences had some role, and would not just accept the Iranian's word on the topic.

[HisMajestyBOB]

In-flight breakup could definitely do it without warning or time to communicate, e.g. TWA 800 or MH17. Structural failure, fuel explosion, missile explosion, etc.

[Razgovory]

What is astounding is that the Iranians were able to determine the cause of the crash almost immediately.  Normally it takes months of work to determine what caused a plane to go down.

[DGuller]

I'm very cautious with language like "the odds are overwhelming we have another MH17 situation".

I've mentioned before the story about visiting New York for the Remembrance Day/Veterans Day long weekend in 2001 - two months after 9/11.  The day I went to leave a plane went down after takeoff in NYC.  People went nuts assuming the worst - but it really just was a random accident.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines_Flight_587

But absolutely I would investigate whether Iranian AA defences had some role, and would not just accept the Iranian's word on the topic.

I am cautious with the language, I just think that alternative explanations are already rapidly falling away, except for maybe a bomb.  The behavior of Iranians also adds to the suspicion, it just screams of instinctive CYA measures without thinking things through.  I predict that in a day or two it the cause of the crash will be known without a doubt, even though the official report may take years.

[Barrister]

I am cautious with the language, I just think that alternative explanations are already rapidly falling away, except for maybe a bomb.  The behavior of Iranians also adds to the suspicion, it just screams of instinctive CYA measures without thinking things through.  I predict that in a day or two it the cause of the crash will be known without a doubt, even though the official report may take years.

That may be.  Bug remember I work in criminal prosecutions.  One of the things drilled into us through training is to beware of "tunnel vision" - to grow so convinced of the most likely suspect that you start to ignore any other possibility.

[Grey Fox]

Your President doesn't look healthy.

[DGuller]

I am cautious with the language, I just think that alternative explanations are already rapidly falling away, except for maybe a bomb.  The behavior of Iranians also adds to the suspicion, it just screams of instinctive CYA measures without thinking things through.  I predict that in a day or two it the cause of the crash will be known without a doubt, even though the official report may take years.

That may be.  Bug remember I work in criminal prosecutions.  One of the things drilled into us through training is to beware of "tunnel vision" - to grow so convinced of the most likely suspect that you start to ignore any other possibility.

That's a good point, but I think that's more of an issue for active investigators rather than passive observers.  Me coming to my own conclusion does not affect the facts being gathered or analyzed, so I can afford to be less biased towards conservatism.

[Sheilbh]

I wonder if Iran very carefully targeted their Scuds to miss.

They did apparently inform the Iraqis where they were targeting. The Iraqis passed it on. So yeah it does look like yesterday was theatre to show a response now. I have no doubt it isn't the end of the Iranian response but the rest, I imagine, will be arms-length bombs targeting Americans abroad.

On the coincidences there was also a big earthquake by one of Iran's nucelar sites yesterday

[Admiral Yi]

They did apparently inform the Iraqis where they were targeting. The Iraqis passed it on. So yeah it does look like yesterday was theatre to show a response now. I have no doubt it isn't the end of the Iranian response but the rest, I imagine, will be arms-length bombs targeting Americans abroad.

Arms length bombs?

Do you mean  bombs delivered by arms length proxy groups?

[Sheilbh]

Arms length bombs?

Do you mean  bombs delivered by arms length proxy groups?

Yeah.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Well and apparently it's being widely reported in Iran dozens to 80 U.S. service members were killed. And a lot of Iranian social media is saying Western press just won't report on it. So in a regime/country of low information people this probably works to assuage domestic bloodlust too.

[Admiral Yi]

Yeah.

I don't necessarily agree.  Proxy attacks on US targets is exactly what the drone hit was a response to.

As much as I hate to say, this whole train of events is turning out quite well for Trump.

[Barrister]

Yeah.

I don't necessarily agree.  Proxy attacks on US targets is exactly what the drone hit was a response to.

As much as I hate to say, this whole train of events is turning out quite well for Trump.

Even assuming this doesn't escalate into wider conflicts with Iran, I don't know this is true.

Perhaps understandable, but the Trump administration didn't consult with anyone about this strike.  Not it's NATO partners, not the Iraqi government, nobody.  This move is going to increasing limit the US ability to conduct similar strike within Iraq in future even if troops aren't kicked out of the country, and may well result in other nations (like Canada) pulling out their troops.

It may well end up being justified in the end (no tears for Soleimani here!), but the jury is still out on this one.