US-Iran War Has Begun! Iran launches dozens of ballistic missiles!

[mongers]

Is Lindsey Graham for real:

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said on Fox News this evening that Iran's attack on Iraqi bases housing US troops was "an act of war".

"The president has all the authority he needs under Article II to respond," the Trump loyalist said to host Sean Hannity, referring to Article II of the US Constitution which delineates presidential power.

"How he responds is yet to be determined, but he has that authority to respond."

Graham concluded by saying he had just spoken to President Trump, and appeared to threaten Iranian oil targets.

"Let me say tonight, if you are watching television in Iran, I just got off the phone to the president - your fate is in your own hands in terms of the regime's economic viability. You continue this crap, you're going to wake up one day out of the oil business."

If he is, then he's just given the 'enemy' forewarning of attack; I wonder if that might endanger any US personnel? 

[FunkMonk]

Back from the fallout shelter. Looks like we won this one. Congrats everyone!

[Habbaku]

Will the title change tomorrow when it turns out to not be true?

[Sheilbh]

Photos have been posted of scud sized missile stages having landed in iraq, by the looks of it those are photos taken in the Iraq countryside, rather from within a US base, so might suggest these are simple inaccurate short range or IRBM strikes.

Maybe we're going to get lucky and no US personel were it? though reports have circulated that some Iraqis have been injured/

I think Iran's got more sophisticated military options than that - I seem to remember when they attacked that oil facility in Saudi that one of the really striking things was how accurate they were. So if there are minimal casualties I don't think it would be an accident.

Also looks like Zarif is trying to give Trump a way out: this is their "proportionate response" to Soleimani's assasination. But it's a one off for that action, not a wider escalation so it's over the US. Edit: And apparently Iranian TV is basically saying if the US doesn't respond, this is over.

And I don't think Trump will do anything more. His latest statement is the most peaceful it's been all week:

All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.

Of course that's almost certainly not it by Iran and I'd expect at some point in the next few years that there'll be some bombs somewhere in the world, planted by people at an arm's length distance from Iran that kills American diplomats, soldiers, civilians.

Edit: Also reports of a Ukrainian Airways plane carrying 180 people crashing shortly after take-off from Tehran airport. Technical issues apparently? So maybe means nothing in relation to this whole situation? But given the timing this is a stressful time for an accidental tragedy

[mongers]

Photos have been posted of scud sized missile stages having landed in iraq, by the looks of it those are photos taken in the Iraq countryside, rather from within a US base, so might suggest these are simple inaccurate short range or IRBM strikes.

Maybe we're going to get lucky and no US personel were it? though reports have circulated that some Iraqis have been injured/

I think Iran's got more sophisticated military options than that - I seem to remember when they attacked that oil facility in Saudi that one of the really striking things was how accurate they were. So if there are minimal casualties I don't think it would be an accident.

Also looks like Zarif is trying to give Trump a way out: this is their "proportionate response" to Soleimani's assasination. But it's a one off for that action, not a wider escalation so it's over the US. Edit: And apparently Iranian TV is basically saying if the US doesn't respond, this is over.

And I don't think Trump will do anything more. His latest statement is the most peaceful it's been all week:

All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.

Of course that's almost certainly not it by Iran and I'd expect at some point in the next few years that there'll be some bombs somewhere in the world, planted by people at an arm's length distance from Iran that kills American diplomats, soldiers, civilians.

Edit: Also reports of a Ukrainian Airways plane carrying 180 people crashing shortly after take-off from Tehran airport. Technical issues apparently? So maybe means nothing in relation to this whole situation? But given the timing this is a stressful time for an accidental tragedy

Yes I was aware of the 'Houthi' drone attack capability and agree they'd be keeping something like that in their hand rather than playing it straight away, but given the nature of these scud like missiles it's in the lap of the gods if they hit anything at all or say a dining hall as in the Gulf war.

They aren't guided, instead relying on inertial navigation and probably have CEP in the regions of kms rather than metres.  Unless of course the Iran 'versions' have some active homing/terminal guidance which I think would be unlikely.

And I'd go with my initial assessment that the intention was to draw blood and do some damage, but only just enough to satisfy the leadership in Iran.

[jimmy olsen]

I think Iran's got more sophisticated military options than that - I seem to remember when they attacked that oil facility in Saudi that one of the really striking things was how accurate they were. So if there are minimal casualties I don't think it would be an accident.

Also looks like Zarif is trying to give Trump a way out: this is their "proportionate response" to Soleimani's assasination. But it's a one off for that action, not a wider escalation so it's over the US. Edit: And apparently Iranian TV is basically saying if the US doesn't respond, this is over.

And I don't think Trump will do anything more. His latest statement is the most peaceful it's been all week:

Of course that's almost certainly not it by Iran and I'd expect at some point in the next few years that there'll be some bombs somewhere in the world, planted by people at an arm's length distance from Iran that kills American diplomats, soldiers, civilians.

I'd expect some embassy bombings or assassinations in the next couple of months. They're not going to just lob a few missiles over the border with zero casualties and accept that as enough.

[Valmy]

Will the title change tomorrow when it turns out to not be true?

Let's hope...that it turns out not to be true that is. I don't care if Tim changes the thread title 

[crazy canuck]

Will the title change tomorrow when it turns out to not be true?

It is already true

[jimmy olsen]

737 went down in Tehran.

State media reports it was to a mechanical failure, but rumors are flying around that Iranian AA shot it down by mistake.

Seemed everything was going well until it reached 8,000 feet

[Razgovory]

We will all learn tomorrow.  It would be uncharacteristic if Trump allowed the Iranians the last word or attack.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Lots of Iranians on that flight of course, but also 63 Canadians :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51029994

[Tamas]

Lots of Iranians on that flight of course, but also 63 Canadians :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51029994

Iran has refused to hand over the black box to Boeing. Might be just a "we hate America so no" thing but this plus the coincidence of when the crash happened seem to indicate it WAS Iranian AAA bringing it down.

[Habbaku]

Will the title change tomorrow when it turns out to not be true?

It is already true

A few missiles lobbed and a general killed does not a war make.

[alfred russel]

Hopefully no Americans got hurt, Iran can claim they responded, and we can ignore it.  Things will go back to normal, with Iranians oppressed at home, crippled by sanctions, supporting low level terrorism in the middle east plus a few active insurgencies, and some harassment of US interests in the Persian Gulf, while Trump remains on track to win reelection.

[Admiral Yi]

I wonder if Iran very carefully targeted their Scuds to miss.