US-Iran War Has Begun! Iran launches dozens of ballistic missiles!

[jimmy olsen]

Earlier, I said the Iranians would attack an embassy.  Thinking about it, they might be better off if they attacked one of Trump's properties such as his tower in Indonesia.  Much less security, and it would cause Trump severe problems politically.  Asking soldiers to risk their lives for Trump's bottom line would be... awkward.

Wouldn't it bankrupt him as well? People wouldn't go and the buildings wouldn't be able to be insured.

[Agelastus]

I have no idea what the fuck is going on or what is going to happen.  The reason that deny Zarif a visa feels rare is because it violates a treaty.

Didn't Obama do the same thing in 2014?

[Valmy]

I have no idea what the fuck is going on or what is going to happen.  The reason that deny Zarif a visa feels rare is because it violates a treaty.

Didn't Obama do the same thing in 2014?

Do what? Deny somebody a visa? Violate a treaty?

[Agelastus]

I have no idea what the fuck is going on or what is going to happen.  The reason that deny Zarif a visa feels rare is because it violates a treaty.

Didn't Obama do the same thing in 2014?

Do what? Deny somebody a visa? Violate a treaty?

In 2014 Obama denied Hamid Abutaleibi, whom Iran had appointed as their UN ambassador, a visa after Congress passed a bill specifically saying the USA had the right to deny visas in such cases.

[grumbler]

Earlier, I said the Iranians would attack an embassy.  Thinking about it, they might be better off if they attacked one of Trump's properties such as his tower in Indonesia.  Much less security, and it would cause Trump severe problems politically.  Asking soldiers to risk their lives for Trump's bottom line would be... awkward.

Wouldn't it bankrupt him as well? People wouldn't go and the buildings wouldn't be able to be insured.

Trump doesn't own those buildings.  He just rents the use of his name.

[The Minsky Moment]

Was Zarif found to have engaged in espionage or terrorist activities?  I'm not aware of any such credible allegations against him.

[Valmy]

I have no idea what the fuck is going on or what is going to happen.  The reason that deny Zarif a visa feels rare is because it violates a treaty.

Didn't Obama do the same thing in 2014?

Do what? Deny somebody a visa? Violate a treaty?

In 2014 Obama denied Hamid Abutaleibi, whom Iran had appointed as their UN ambassador, a visa after Congress passed a bill specifically saying the USA had the right to deny visas in such cases.

In what sort of cases?

[The Minsky Moment]

Espionage or terrorism - i.e. the same sorts of things that can get a diplomat expelled under international law.  Not applicable to Zarif as far as I know.

[Agelastus]

Was Zarif found to have engaged in espionage or terrorist activities?  I'm not aware of any such credible allegations against him.

Does it matter; a strict interpretation of the wording of the 1947 hosting agreement would suggest both visa denials are in violation of the Treaty.

Whereas recent American actions to limit the access of Iranian diplomats visiting the UN to other parts of New York are not in violation of the Treaty.

It's interesting that the USA felt it had to pass a specific law to allow this in 2014 rather than relying on international norms of diplomacy concerning the expulsion of, or denial of visas to, diplomats as you mention in a subsequent post.

[Valmy]

It's interesting that the USA felt it had to pass a specific law to allow this in 2014

To allow what specifically? Does the law have any provisions for what the United States considers reasonable exceptions to the treaty? Or is it just asserting a blanket right?

[The Brain]

I still don't think Trump is a Russian agent/asset but it is becoming remarkable how the only consistent pattern in his presidency is a serving of Russian interests.

I don't think he has a formal agent contract, but if it walks like a duck, thinks like a duck...

[HisMajestyBOB]

Was Zarif found to have engaged in espionage or terrorist activities?  I'm not aware of any such credible allegations against him.

He is guilty of the worst crime imaginable: hurting Trump's feelings.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Not clear what's going on with US forces in Iraq:

Confusion surrounds memo indicating potential withdrawal of US troops from Iraq

The future of the US presence in Iraq is in question after a military memo seemed to indicate a potential withdrawal of American troops from the country.

The memo stated troops would begin "onward movement" from Iraq. However, secretary of defense Mark Esper said the memo was inaccurate "There's been no decision whatsoever to leave Iraq."

The chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Mark Milley, said the letter had been sent in error.

The back-and-forth began as the Trump administration scrambled to respond to Iraqi demands for the troops to leave after last week's assassination in Baghdad of Iran's top general, Qassem Suleimani.

Allies to the US are responding in kind, with British officials are now pointing to Esper's clarification, describing the original letter from the US-led coalition circulating in Iraq as "very unclear" and "not what it seems" without giving further details.

Trump has blocked Zarif from attending the UN next week by denying him a visa. Which feels rare.

Separately I saw the Japanese are deploying more escorts to Persian Gulf. It strikes me this may be the smartest retaliation for the Iranians. Hit American allies - they're probably less protected and it won't provoke retaliation by Trump because he doesn't care about alliances, but it will hurt America's relationships/alliances.

the smartest retaliation for the Iranians is doing nothing and show they are not Trump.

[The Minsky Moment]

I still don't think Trump is a Russian agent/asset but it is becoming remarkable how the only consistent pattern in his presidency is a serving of Russian interests.

I don't think he has a formal agent contract, but if it walks like a duck, thinks like a duck...

He is an asset, no question.  He can be manipulated and controlled in predictable ways.

[chipwich]

Earlier, I said the Iranians would attack an embassy.  Thinking about it, they might be better off if they attacked one of Trump's properties such as his tower in Indonesia.  Much less security, and it would cause Trump severe problems politically.  Asking soldiers to risk their lives for Trump's bottom line would be... awkward.

At this point I just hope they have the clarity of mind to not attack a Blue State.