Trains, Banks and Public/Private Ownership - Prev.Predict UK Gen.Election Result

[Crazy_Ivan80]

This is gerrymandering :

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/05/15/americas-most-gerrymandered-congressional-districts/?utm_term=.f28096199f8f

That's probably the next level of gerrymandering: "abortion of democracy"

[Josquius]

Labour is being disproportionately affected because traditional labour supporters, the poor and students, were disproportionately affected by the change to electoral registration rules.

I'm well aware it's not the same thing as American style gerrymandering. But again I'm not just randomly deciding to use the term here. A lot of people have used it to draw attention to the dodginess of the  boundary review.

I'm surprised that you're bothering to try to educate him, Gups; there's a reason why Tyr's one of only two posters on Languish I'd be unwilling to have a beer with (on the grounds that I might not be able to restrain myself from punching either of them.)

Ah the hard right.

[Valmy]

This is gerrymandering :

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/05/15/americas-most-gerrymandered-congressional-districts/?utm_term=.f28096199f8f

That's probably the next level of gerrymandering: "abortion of democracy"

One of Austin's districts is on that list! Glad to be recognized. We are so badly chopped up into different districts that everytime I have moved, within the same area of the same city mind you, I have moved into a different Congressional district.

[Agelastus]

I'm surprised that you're bothering to try to educate him, Gups; there's a reason why Tyr's one of only two posters on Languish I'd be unwilling to have a beer with (on the grounds that I might not be able to restrain myself from punching either of them.)

Ah the hard right.

And the reason it's only a "might" on the punch; like many on Languish, you have far more skill with the witty one liner response than I do.

[Zanza]

Will we get exit polls or will it take until late in the night to get an idea who won?

[Agelastus]

The Exit Poll should be out by 10:30 or so, if I recall correctly.

--------------------------

The current article thread on UK Polling Report is, of course, busy - and is also providing several bits of anecdotal evidence that -

(a) I'm wrong about the turnout - there are polling stations running 5% ahead of this time in 2015.
(b) That the "youth/young person" vote is turning out.
(c) That former Labour voters in high UKIP areas are breaking back to Labour, contrary to the evidence of the early polls during the campaign and the anecdotal evidence around then.

Of course, anecdotal "evidence" is not real evidence. But it could mean that the lower Tory poll leads in the last week are more accurate than the higher ones as so much of the difference was down to how they were modelling turnout.

[mongers]

OK can we stop voting now, I note 26 have proffered an opinion and  someone else has posted in the 80-100, but no one over 100+.
So safe to say I'm the extreme outlier having gone for a 98 seat Tory majority.   

I think part of my 'reasoning' is I'm a pessimist and a May landslide would be the worse outcome for the country.

But I also think the campaign on the ground has been limited and lacklustre, much of the cut and thrust, especially among the young has moved on line. Where I think the Tory e-campaign will far overshadow the efforts of Labour and Lib Dems. 

I suspect a lot of experience will have been drawn from Trump's tightly focused campaign and there'll have been a fair bit of flow across the Atlantic, both in terms of methodologies, intelligence and grey money to push the Tories on-line.

Plus the pensioners and 50+ groups will turn out in droves for May, of whom the 'Strong and Stable' bullshit will have registered despite the naysayers.

No idea of the electoral map or particular numbers, but my wild guesses are as follows:

Tories gain 6-12 seats in Scotland.

Labour won't do so well as Tories, gaining maybe up to 10 seats.

SNP tacking during the election will ensure they'll loose 20 at most.

Labour are bound to loose plenty of seats in the Midlands and North as the Tories mop up UKIP voters.

Lib Dems gain no more than a dozen seats.


So overall:

Labour just below 200 seats say 198, worse than Michael Foot's 83 result.
SNP - 40 seats
Lib-Dems - 18 seats
Greens - 2 seats
Others - 22 seats

Thus the Tories get 378 seats. 

[Agelastus]

Tories gain 6-12 seats in Scotland.

Labour won't do so well as Tories, gaining maybe up to 10 seats.

SNP tacking during the election will ensure they'll loose 20 at most.

You realise your Scottish estimates are at roughly twice the level of any "best case for the Unionist parties" estimates that I've seen suggested?

I'd say the SNP will be unlucky to lose 10; 8 is a more reasonable estimate and only losing four to six more than possible.

[Gups]

The Exit Poll should be out by 10:30 or so, if I recall correctly.

--------------------------

The current article thread on UK Polling Report is, of course, busy - and is also providing several bits of anecdotal evidence that -

(a) I'm wrong about the turnout - there are polling stations running 5% ahead of this time in 2015.
(b) That the "youth/young person" vote is turning out.
(c) That former Labour voters in high UKIP areas are breaking back to Labour, contrary to the evidence of the early polls during the campaign and the anecdotal evidence around then.

Of course, anecdotal "evidence" is not real evidence. But it could mean that the lower Tory poll leads in the last week are more accurate than the higher ones as so much of the difference was down to how they were modelling turnout.

It's always at 10 p.m.

[Agelastus]

It's always at 10 p.m.

Yes, you're right. I just looked it up; should have done that before posting, I was relying on my faulty memory of 2015 for the time.

[mongers]

Tories gain 6-12 seats in Scotland.

Labour won't do so well as Tories, gaining maybe up to 10 seats.

SNP tacking during the election will ensure they'll loose 20 at most.

You realise your Scottish estimates are at roughly twice the level of any "best case for the Unionist parties" estimates that I've seen suggested?

I'd say the SNP will be unlucky to lose 10; 8 is a more reasonable estimate and only losing four to six more than possible.

Well I was just going with my gut instinct, largely based on conversations whilst out and about.

For me there's little point following the online numbers game, there are plenty of psephologists who do it better than me. 
And they and other talking heads are going to dominate this evenings coverage with plenty of facts and figures, just as they did during the referendum.

[Josquius]

I would see the Tories getting a few in Scotland. And I'm actually quite happy about that, don't like the SNP one party state they've got up there. At the least will stop them getting all smug about how they never voted for the government (should the Tories win overall) but 'England' did.

Fingers crossed on some progressive wins in England though.
Certainly on facebook I've seen a few thoroughly apolitical people getting quite excited about Corbyn...
But at the same time a few thoroughly non-working class would be Kippers getting very gung-ho for the tories- my town newspaper carried a big headline about how we should vote for May for the sake of Brexit
I fear Corbyn's votes are going to stack in a few seats.

Worst case that I fear we'll see...a lack of awareness pushes many to vote lib dem in Tory-Labour marginals.

[Gups]

I'm in a safe Labour seat with a moderate local MP.  But I hate Corbyn. I was sure I was voting LibDem until this morning. Throughout the day I changed my mind more often than a child molester at Disneyland. Voted Labour in the end but threw up in my mouth a little.

Please can we have Macron?

[DontSayBanana]

I'm in a safe Labour seat with a moderate local MP.  But I hate Corbyn. I was sure I was voting LibDem until this morning. Throughout the day I changed my mind more often than a child molester at Disneyland. Voted Labour in the end but threw up in my mouth a little.

Please can we have Macron?

You can start by not re-electing May after the bullshit she said about human rights laws the other day.

[garbon]

I'm in a safe Labour seat with a moderate local MP.  But I hate Corbyn. I was sure I was voting LibDem until this morning. Throughout the day I changed my mind more often than a child molester at Disneyland. Voted Labour in the end but threw up in my mouth a little.

Please can we have Macron?

You can start by not re-electing May after the bullshit she said about human rights laws the other day.

I guess this kind of outrage is what happens when the world starts paying attention? May has consistently* said that she wants to throw out European convention of human rights, so what she said is not at all surprising.

*except for when she said she didn't