Trains, Banks and Public/Private Ownership - Prev.Predict UK Gen.Election Result

[Liep]

"Eve-of-vote poll by ComRes for The Independent gives Ms May a 10-point lead, indicating an 74-seat majority"

If true what do I win by having guessed 51-80?

[Agelastus]

The final day polls varied between a 1 point and a 13 point Tory lead (although I may have missed some.)

It will be very interesting to see how the Exit Poll turns out; will I need to break out my cheapest booze to get roaring drunk (well, tipsy anyway) or open the bottle of fifty year old Cognac I let myself be tempted by a couple of weeks ago to celebrate?

[Jacob]

The final day polls varied between a 1 point and a 13 point Tory lead (although I may have missed some.)

It will be very interesting to see how the Exit Poll turns out; will I need to break out my cheapest booze to get roaring drunk (well, tipsy anyway) or open the bottle of fifty year old Cognac I let myself be tempted by a couple of weeks ago to celebrate?

Hey Agelastus, IIRC you were pro-Brexit during the referendum. What do you think about how the post-referendum Brexit scenario has played out so far? Has your expectations for the post-Brexit world changed since the referendum time?

Not looking for an argument here, just curious about your perception.

[Josquius]

Channel 4 just announced exit poll for a hung parliament

Really not believing it but...its encouraging given the polls throughout the day have been so for May.

If the results are what they say, Tories on 314.... the Northern Irish unionists are needed to make the government?
Promising for Brexit if so.

[Agelastus]

Exit poll...pretty fucking dire, really.

Tories 314, Labour 266, SNP 34, LD 14

Hung parliament.

And if the poll's right it's a good job I didn't tell Mongers I'd "eat my hat" when I saw his Scottish prediction.

Time to break out the cheaper booze.

[Liep]

Channel 4 just announced exit poll for a hung parliament

Exit poll is 12 from a majority? How was it the last exit poll went?

[Maladict]

That's it for May then?

[Tamas]

If this ends up being the result, will May resign? It would be an incredible slap in her face

[Josquius]

.....and then PM Boris?


This isn't good:
http://www.nme.com/news/students-turned-away-polling-stations-keele-university-2086047

[Agelastus]

That's it for May then?

Honestly? If it's a hung parliament then the knives will be out in the Tory party and I'd guess yes - even a repeat of 2015 (where the exit poll called the Tories low) leading too a similar Tory majority as 2015 will probably cause "man overboard" in the Tory party.

For the last few elections the Exit poll has never been more than 20 seats wrong for a party - considering that, even if 2015 is repeated that's a Tory total of no more than 334.

If the exit poll is right, I'd also predict another election within 2 years, possibly within the year. Which screws the Brexit negotiations over royally.

[Tamas]

.....and then PM Boris?

Might as well run this whole thing to the ground and star over from scratch asap

[Agelastus]

Channel 4 just announced exit poll for a hung parliament

Exit poll is 12 from a majority? How was it the last exit poll went?

I looked it up - the 2015 exit poll called it as 316 for the Tories - so May's already doing worse there.

[Tamas]

But how many points are missing from a majority based on this? 12? Can't they just buy 12 guys from the others category?

[Josquius]

But how many points are missing from a majority based on this? 12? Can't they just buy 12 guys from the others category?

They're pretty chummy with the DUP in Northern Ireland who have 8 at the moment. The Ulster Unionists have 2....... 18 available overall in Northern Ireland so...it's a big ask for them to be pushed over the majority line. I don't see UKIP getting anything.

[Agelastus]

But how many points are missing from a majority based on this? 12? Can't they just buy 12 guys from the others category?

It actually is a couple of seats less than that since Sinn Fein MPs decline to actually represent their constituents. But even with that there's not enough Unionists in the "Others" category if they stay on 314.