Trains, Banks and Public/Private Ownership - Prev.Predict UK Gen.Election Result

[Gups]

This is the last election before the tory gerrymandering takes hold too. Some pretty stupid changes here:

http://boundaries.spatialanalysis.co.uk/2018/#/TFFTT/9/-1.9803/55.3533/

Fuhrer May's coronation it seems

It's not gerrymandering. We have boundary changes every 10 years decided on by an independent body whose decisions can (and often are) challenged judicially.

Your ignorance of how our constitution works is genuinely depressing. I can't be bothered to respond to most of them (e.g. the idea that the Tories can use civil servants to cost their manifesto plans or that MPs have to live in their constituencies) but I think this one is worth responding to.

That the civil service do the leg work for the government is a fact.
That MPs have to live in their constituencies was a rhetorical question. It's not exactly and important issue and it was a surprise to me that they would be running a Martian in a Earthling village as its the first time I've seen it and though it is obviously legal it is pretty bad.
Boundary reviews happen regularly. This one is however something quite different with the reduction in MP numbers and basing seat distribution not on inhabitants but on registered voters as of a point some years ago when several hundred thousand were removed from the electoral roll (I'm pretty sure I wasn't taken into account with this boundary review for instance). I'm not saying anything new here. The changes have came in for a lot of criticism.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-hit-hardest-boundary-changes-claims-of-gerrymandering_uk_57c3ea19e4b0ba22a4d48f47

A manifesto is not a Government document. Civil servants are not allowed to work on party documents whether that party is in Government or not.

I think you need to find out what gerrymandering is.

[Tamas]

People born during its era have swallowed them hook, line and sinker.

Well, Tamas was born in commie land.  I can appreciate his aversion to Labour.

And it was Labour foreign secretary who moved to keep the US engaged in post-WW2 Europe and was one of the chief architects of NATO. IE standing up to Stalinism.

Just because the Tories bang on about national security and rapping themselves in the Union Jack, doesn't mean the Labour party of the last 60 years has anything to be embarrassed about. After all it's said patriotism is often the last refuge of a scoundrel.

That I guess is true for Labour in general but we are not exactly facing a return of Tony Blair now are we? Corbyn IS a one man collection of pretty much everything that's wrong with the far left. Sure, by accident he would bring in some good as well but not nearly enough to compensate for the disaster.

Just thinking Chavez did well in Venezuela should disqualify you from holding any office.

[Josquius]

A manifesto is not a Government document. Civil servants are not allowed to work on party documents whether that party is in Government or not.

I think you need to find out what gerrymandering is.

That's not how things work in practice though. The Tories were in government. Their daily work was running the country.
If they had a policy idea after the dissolution then the civil service would not help them.
If they had an idea prior to the election though then the civil service would help as part of their normal work. I'm not aware of any rule that says the manifesto for the current government cannot be based off continuing in the manner they had planned.
I suspect you might be thinking I'm seeing some sort of evil conspiracy here, its nothing of the sort, its just logical. It does however have the effect of giving the party currently in government an advantage when it comes to having a well rounded manifesto (not that the tories have used this advantage).

The boundary changes do tick the boxes for gerrymandering.

[Agelastus]

This is the last election before the tory gerrymandering takes hold too. Some pretty stupid changes here:

http://boundaries.spatialanalysis.co.uk/2018/#/TFFTT/9/-1.9803/55.3533/

Fuhrer May's coronation it seems

It's not gerrymandering. We have boundary changes every 10 years decided on by an independent body whose decisions can (and often are) challenged judicially.

Your ignorance of how our constitution works is genuinely depressing. I can't be bothered to respond to most of them (e.g. the idea that the Tories can use civil servants to cost their manifesto plans or that MPs have to live in their constituencies) but I think this one is worth responding to.

That the civil service do the leg work for the government is a fact.
That MPs have to live in their constituencies was a rhetorical question. It's not exactly and important issue and it was a surprise to me that they would be running a Martian in a Earthling village as its the first time I've seen it and though it is obviously legal it is pretty bad.
Boundary reviews happen regularly. This one is however something quite different with the reduction in MP numbers and basing seat distribution not on inhabitants but on registered voters as of a point some years ago when several hundred thousand were removed from the electoral roll (I'm pretty sure I wasn't taken into account with this boundary review for instance). I'm not saying anything new here. The changes have came in for a lot of criticism.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-hit-hardest-boundary-changes-claims-of-gerrymandering_uk_57c3ea19e4b0ba22a4d48f47

A manifesto is not a Government document. Civil servants are not allowed to work on party documents whether that party is in Government or not.

I think you need to find out what gerrymandering is.

I'm surprised that you're bothering to try to educate him, Gups; there's a reason why Tyr's one of only two posters on Languish I'd be unwilling to have a beer with (on the grounds that I might not be able to restrain myself from punching either of them.)

-------------------

As for voting, I've been out and voted, and dropped off a family member's postal vote. Anecdotal evidence only of course, but from the number of people I saw at the polling station I feel the turnout is going to be down from the last election - and given the time of the day I voted this may be bad for the Tories.

-------------------

I was contemplating on the way back that the difference in voting turnout may not just be a reflection of age, political awareness or activism etc. but also a result of our system and the ways we've been pushing to make it easier to vote.

Both voting on a Thursday and pushing postal votes would seem to me to have the effect of making it more likely/easier for the elderly to vote, rather than the working young. Even given that you can basically get a postal vote just for the sake of it these days rather than actually having to have a reason for needing one.

I live in what still amounts to a commuter town, after all, and the voters I did see were either OAPs or mothers (and I know my Butcher, who I visited after the vote, may be going to vote later, but that his wife had already gone down to vote.)

In other words the elderly vote more because both the motivated and the unmotivated have more opportunity/it is easier to do so.

[Tamas]

I fully expect to have the 3rd voting-related half-awake shocked disbelief in a course of a year, when I'll check the results tomorrow morning

[Eddie Teach]

I'm surprised that you're bothering to try to educate him, Gups; there's a reason why Tyr's one of only two posters on Languish I'd be unwilling to have a beer with (on the grounds that I might not be able to restrain myself from punching either of them.)

Just don't bring up anime and I won't be obliged to say how shitty it is, shouldn't be *that* difficult. Geeze.

[Agelastus]

I'm surprised that you're bothering to try to educate him, Gups; there's a reason why Tyr's one of only two posters on Languish I'd be unwilling to have a beer with (on the grounds that I might not be able to restrain myself from punching either of them.)

Just don't bring up anime and I won't be obliged to say how shitty it is, shouldn't be *that* difficult. Geeze.

Eddie, I'd be happy to have a beer with you if we ever came within a few miles of each other; no mention of anime guaranteed, I promise.

[mongers]

I'm surprised that you're bothering to try to educate him, Gups; there's a reason why Tyr's one of only two posters on Languish I'd be unwilling to have a beer with (on the grounds that I might not be able to restrain myself from punching either of them.)

Just don't bring up anime and I won't be obliged to say how shitty it is, shouldn't be *that* difficult. Geeze.

Eddie, I'd be happy to have a beer with you if we ever came within a few miles of each other; no mention of anime guaranteed, I promise.

Yeah Eddie he was talking about me not you. 

[garbon]

Why are you both excited about who Mensa Timmay is picking as his main squeeze?

[Eddie Teach]

I'm only as excited as you are garbon.

[Agelastus]

Why are you both excited about who Mensa Timmay is picking as his main squeeze?

 

"Anime Timmay" presumably, rather than "thread-starter Timmay" or "Article-poster Timmay"?

[Eddie Teach]

How many poll tracking websites do you have bookmarked?

[Ed Anger]

All of them!

[Barrister]

This is the last election before the tory gerrymandering takes hold too. Some pretty stupid changes here:

http://boundaries.spatialanalysis.co.uk/2018/#/TFFTT/9/-1.9803/55.3533/

Fuhrer May's coronation it seems

It's not gerrymandering. We have boundary changes every 10 years decided on by an independent body whose decisions can (and often are) challenged judicially.

Your ignorance of how our constitution works is genuinely depressing. I can't be bothered to respond to most of them (e.g. the idea that the Tories can use civil servants to cost their manifesto plans or that MPs have to live in their constituencies) but I think this one is worth responding to.

That the civil service do the leg work for the government is a fact.
That MPs have to live in their constituencies was a rhetorical question. It's not exactly an important issue and it was a surprise to me that they would be running a Martian in a Earthling village as its the first time I've seen it and though it is obviously legal it is pretty bad.
Boundary reviews happen regularly. This one is however something quite different with the reduction in MP numbers and basing seat distribution not on inhabitants but on registered voters as of a point some years ago when several hundred thousand were removed from the electoral roll (I'm pretty sure I wasn't taken into account with this boundary review for instance). I'm not saying anything new here. The changes have came in for a lot of criticism.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-hit-hardest-boundary-changes-claims-of-gerrymandering_uk_57c3ea19e4b0ba22a4d48f47

From your own article:

"The party that will suffer most is the Labour party because such a high proportion of their current seats are well below the required quota, particularly in Wales, the north-east and parts of the M62 corridor," Lord Hayward told The Guardian.

Labour may be affected by redistribution.  That doesn't make it gerrymandering or unfair.

[Richard Hakluyt]

This is gerrymandering :

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/05/15/americas-most-gerrymandered-congressional-districts/?utm_term=.f28096199f8f