Trains, Banks and Public/Private Ownership - Prev.Predict UK Gen.Election Result

[Josquius]

I have obtained my summary of british politics from the Tory mouthpiece that is The Economist

They're...just anti brexit right?
So stands to reason they'd be against labour just as they're against the tories

[Zanza]

They endorsed the LibDems

[mongers]

So we have this thread for predicting the result and the other longer one about the General election campaign, so would it be a good idea to close one of them to avoid the outcome discussion being split?

If so which one?

[Admiral Yi]

So we have this thread for predicting the result and the other longer one about the General election campaign, so would it be a good idea to close one of them to avoid the outcome discussion being split?

If so which one?

Quit fussing around like a granny.

[DontSayBanana]

So is May's describing human rights laws as an inconvenience to be gotten around going to screw with things, or are the Brexit voters now that jaded?

[Razgovory]

People born during its era have swallowed them hook, line and sinker.

Well, Tamas was born in commie land.  I can appreciate his aversion to Labour. 

[mongers]

People born during its era have swallowed them hook, line and sinker.

Well, Tamas was born in commie land.  I can appreciate his aversion to Labour.

And it was Labour foreign secretary who moved to keep the US engaged in post-WW2 Europe and was one of the chief architects of NATO. IE standing up to Stalinism.

Just because the Tories bang on about national security and rapping themselves in the Union Jack, doesn't mean the Labour party of the last 60 years has anything to be embarrassed about. After all it's said patriotism is often the last refuge of a scoundrel.

[mongers]

So we have this thread for predicting the result and the other longer one about the General election campaign, so would it be a good idea to close one of them to avoid the outcome discussion being split?

If so which one?

Quit fussing around like a granny.

OK I'll act like a Trumpian dictator and decide which one to close, whilst I sit on the sitter in the morning. 

[Gups]

Final polls (one more to come this morning)

ICM: CON 46%(+1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc),

ComRes: CON 44%(-3), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 5%(+1).

Surveymonkey: CON 42%(-2), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(nc).

Panelbase: CON 44%(nc), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(-1).

Kantar: CON 43%(nc), LAB 38%(+5), LDEM 7%(-4), UKIP 4%(nc).

YouGov: CON 42%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%, GRN 2%.

Survation: CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 2%, GRN 2%

BMG: CON 46%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%.

So Tories in a range of 41 to 46 and Labour 33 to 40. As I understand it the primary difference is in estimating the turnout by demographic sector. Those polls giving the higher labour shares are asking people how likely they are to vote. Those giving the lower shares are adjusting on the basis of previous elections and referenda. So the big unknown is whether young people (in particular) can be believed when they say they will vote. If so Labour could be in the high 30s. If they follow the pattern of 2015 and the EU referendum, then low to mid 30s.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Pretty shit weather here. I have a feeling that the young folk, aka "Jezza's People", will have a lowish turnout..........thus gifting the election to the tories. Horrible screams will be heard from their bubble as they fail to understand that actually casting a vote is far more important than virtue signalling on social media.

I hope I'm wrong, even though I don't want Corbyn to do well.

[Josquius]

This is the last election before the tory gerrymandering takes hold too. Some pretty stupid changes here:

http://boundaries.spatialanalysis.co.uk/2018/#/TFFTT/9/-1.9803/55.3533/

Fuhrer May's coronation it seems

[Gups]

This is the last election before the tory gerrymandering takes hold too. Some pretty stupid changes here:

http://boundaries.spatialanalysis.co.uk/2018/#/TFFTT/9/-1.9803/55.3533/

Fuhrer May's coronation it seems

It's not gerrymandering. We have boundary changes every 10 years decided on by an independent body whose decisions can (and often are) challenged judicially.

Your ignorance of how our constitution works is genuinely depressing. I can't be bothered to respond to most of them (e.g. the idea that the Tories can use civil servants to cost their manifesto plans or that MPs have to live in their constituencies) but I think this one is worth responding to.

[Josquius]

This is the last election before the tory gerrymandering takes hold too. Some pretty stupid changes here:

http://boundaries.spatialanalysis.co.uk/2018/#/TFFTT/9/-1.9803/55.3533/

Fuhrer May's coronation it seems

It's not gerrymandering. We have boundary changes every 10 years decided on by an independent body whose decisions can (and often are) challenged judicially.

Your ignorance of how our constitution works is genuinely depressing. I can't be bothered to respond to most of them (e.g. the idea that the Tories can use civil servants to cost their manifesto plans or that MPs have to live in their constituencies) but I think this one is worth responding to.

That the civil service do the leg work for the government is a fact.
That MPs have to live in their constituencies was a rhetorical question. It's not exactly an important issue and it was a surprise to me that they would be running a Martian in a Earthling village as its the first time I've seen it and though it is obviously legal it is pretty bad.
Boundary reviews happen regularly. This one is however something quite different with the reduction in MP numbers and basing seat distribution not on inhabitants but on registered voters as of a point some years ago when several hundred thousand were removed from the electoral roll (I'm pretty sure I wasn't taken into account with this boundary review for instance). I'm not saying anything new here. The changes have came in for a lot of criticism.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-hit-hardest-boundary-changes-claims-of-gerrymandering_uk_57c3ea19e4b0ba22a4d48f47

[garbon]

Pretty shit weather here. I have a feeling that the young folk, aka "Jezza's People", will have a lowish turnout..........thus gifting the election to the tories. Horrible screams will be heard from their bubble as they fail to understand that actually casting a vote is far more important than virtue signalling on social media.

I hope I'm wrong, even though I don't want Corbyn to do well.

Guardian referenced this old article of there's this morning

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check-with-polly-curtis/2012/may/03/weather-local-elections-2012

There will also very likely be rain. Conventional punditry would tell you that means lower turnout and bad news for Labour because young people are more prone to dissolving. But a Guardian fact-check for the 2012 local elections found that to be a myth (the rain = low turnout line; further studies are needed on young people's solubility).

[The Larch]

It's in days like today that you can count on the British tabloid press to do their worst. Aaah, so subtle and nuanced...