UK Parliamentary General Election 8th June 2017

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yeah, the size of her majority will determine her authority. If it is 100 or so, still a possibility, then she will have a pretty clear run I think; for good or ill.

[Valmy]

Kinda thought I'd score higher with UKIP.

You have to remember that they appeal to Labour voters.

[Gups]

I'm confused, was there a thought that Labour was suddenly going to win? Isn't it just that polls were now suggesting Conservatives wouldn't win as big as initially hoped? (Before this incident)

Yep, but there was certainly some momentum behind Labour. We had the dementia tax furore and a U-turn by Theresa. For the first time in years, the Tories were on the defensive and Labour looked united. If it had carried on, could have been looking a small Tory majority or even a hung Parliament ( super unlikely IMO but just about plausible)

[Valmy]

Despite not being aligned with either the Democratic Unionists nor Sinn Fein I would be most at home in Northern Ireland

Did you vote for beheading the monarchy and aristocrats?

Well of course. That probably made me seem like a likely Sinn Fein voter

[mongers]

I'm confused, was there a thought that Labour was suddenly going to win? Isn't it just that polls were now suggesting Conservatives wouldn't win as big as initially hoped? (Before this incident)

Yep, but there was certainly some momentum behind Labour. We had the dementia tax furore and a U-turn by Theresa. For the first time in years, the Tories were on the defensive and Labour looked united. If it had carried on, could have been looking a small Tory majority or even a hung Parliament ( super unlikely IMO but just about plausible)

Indeed.

This outrage might well significantly change the subject matter and trajectory of the campaign.

Just 14 full campaigning days now left.

[Savonarola]

Despite not being aligned with either the Democratic Unionists nor Sinn Fein I would be most at home in Northern Ireland

Did you vote for beheading the monarchy and aristocrats?

Well of course. That probably made me seem like a likely Sinn Fein voter

I did too; so I thought that might be why I ended up in Northern Ireland as well.

I see by British standards I'm a raving globalist, a pacifist, a progressive and soft on crime. 

[garbon]

I'm confused, was there a thought that Labour was suddenly going to win? Isn't it just that polls were now suggesting Conservatives wouldn't win as big as initially hoped? (Before this incident)

Yep, but there was certainly some momentum behind Labour. We had the dementia tax furore and a U-turn by Theresa. For the first time in years, the Tories were on the defensive and Labour looked united. If it had carried on, could have been looking a small Tory majority or even a hung Parliament ( super unlikely IMO but just about plausible)

Do you all not have tightening of races generally? Or is it one side just starts pulling away in the polls as you lead into the general election?

[Gups]

I'm certain that this has been positive for May and the Tories. Corbyn was actually gaining some traction, this process has now been interrupted.

Absolutely. Not only has the momentum been interrupted but law & order/security has always been a Tory strongpoint. It doesn't help that Corbyn is rightly perceived as soft on terrorism. Coincidentally, there was a lot of press about his views on the IRA at the weekend. We'll also be reminded about his opposition to any kind of shoot to kill policy following the Paris attacks (although he rowed back on that)

Well, the first poll with field work undertaken since the attacks suggests that I'm completely wrong. Yougov showing Tory lead cut to 5 points with Labour at 38%. I'm surprised - be interesting to see if it's an outlier or not.

[Tamas]

Funny thing is, what a close victory means is all faint hope for a soft brexit gone - we don't know if May even wants one but she won't be able to get it if the nazi rebels in her party can de facto control her due to a low majority.

And it's not like Corbyn will do any opposing - he will be right back fighting the inside opposition in his party, rolling over to whatever May wants, as it was the case before the election.

[Richard Hakluyt]

An interesting and very unpredictable election. Tory campaign has been dreadful in my view, have they any positive policies?

[Tamas]

An interesting and very unpredictable election. Tory campaign has been dreadful in my view, have they any positive policies?

Blue passports?

[Josquius]

And it seems the Tories have followed the advice from the 11th September attacks and exploited the situation to release some more details about their manifesto... for instance that their stuff about free school breakfasts was based on a calculation of 7p a meal.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The Institute for Fiscal Studies says that they are both lying :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40057115

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40058068

I think the IFS are correct.

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/26/jeremy-corbyn-the-war-on-terror-is-simply-not-working

What a lovely stance. Avoid any issues at home by letting other people figure out their own shit.

[Tamas]

His victim blaming easy very nice either