What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[frunk]

I'm not sure why people are so surprised by a conservative who hates Trump.  Most conservatives with a brain in their head do.

[OttoVonBismarck]

My guess is he was probably more of a niche right wing ethos, probably some goofy brand of libertarian extremism. The real obsessive 2A types (he died wearing a t-shirt affiliated with "Demo Ranch" a huge gun YouTube channel) are often ancestrally related to anti-government right wingers like Tim McVeigh types, often having very particular types of conservative / libertarian views that while definitely very anti-Democrat, are often at odds with more mainstream brands of GOP rightism.

[Sheilbh]

TR wasn't elected to a third term. Ford wasn't re-elected either.

Trump could definitely win, but I don't think this will make a difference.

I've no idea how this will play out in terms of the campaign.

However, and I get that this is incredibly obvious but...Trump isn't Teddy Roosevelt or Gerald Ford. There will be (there already are) conspiracy theories from Trump's supporters - and he won't try to refute or disown them. A bit like Q where there is this bottom-up internet weirdness - he never really says it but he never denies it either.

Similarly I think he will absolutely wave the bloody shirt about this on the campaign trail. And I mean that literally - I wouldn't be surprised to see relics from this attack as props in Trump rallies.

(Total aside - I will never not find it weird that people tried to kill Gerald Ford of all presidents twice )

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think Trump is likely to win, but I don't think the shooting changes it. It is still months from election day, while we don't have a ton of data points on shootings:

- Gerald Ford suffered two assassination attempts, neither of which translated into a meaningful anything, he had moderate short term polling boost, and lost his reelection
- Ronald Reagan suffered a much more serious attempt, being struck and going into emergency surgery, his approval ratings went up 8 pts, but the recession of 1981 saw it steadily erode--bottoming out in the 30s. He was able to turn it around by the time of the 1984 election, aided in part by Walter Mondale just being a terrible candidate. Reagan's shooting was so many years in advance of the election it seems to have had no real impact, as his polling bump had fully eroded and his polling in general collapsed and been rebuilt by the time of his reelection

[Oexmelin]

From Axios:

What to watch: Most lawmakers who spoke to Axios said it is too early to say whether the cessation in tensions will last until the Democratic National Convention next month.

But the second senior House Democrat offered one reason for why it might: "We've all resigned ourselves to a second Trump presidency."

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/14/house-democrats-biden-trump-rally-shooting

[garbon]

From Axios:

What to watch: Most lawmakers who spoke to Axios said it is too early to say whether the cessation in tensions will last until the Democratic National Convention next month.

But the second senior House Democrat offered one reason for why it might: "We've all resigned ourselves to a second Trump presidency."

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/14/house-democrats-biden-trump-rally-shooting

I appreciated what AOC said in response:

https://thehill.com/elections/4772135-ocasio-cortez-rips-house-democrat-over-anonymous-quote-you-should-absolutely-retire/

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) on Sunday sharply criticized an anonymous "senior Democrat" who was quoted saying the party was "resigned" to another four years under former President Trump.

Ocasio-Cortez, in a post on the social platform X, said Democratic members who feel that way should "absolutely retire" from their positions in Congress.

"If you're a 'senior Democrat' that feels this way, you should absolutely retire and make space for true leadership that refuses to resign themselves to fascism," Ocasio-Cortez wrote on X.

"This kind of leadership is functionally useless to the American people," she added. "Retire."

[Sheilbh]

I agree.

As I say I feel like for some Democrats they don't believe what they're saying. Trump isn't really a risk, they'll weather it like his first term and the main thing is they're lined for good jobs in 2028.

If you think Trump is a very serious risk - you can't be resigned four months out

[OttoVonBismarck]

The reality is Trump is not a meaningful threat to democracy. He will be a bad President, as he was last time. It says a lot about the Democratic party that between two bad parties, many of us only have the option of voting Republican this year because of the unacceptable things the Democrats have adopted.

I think both of America's parties are long over due for a complete, sustained electoral collapse and lockout from power. But the nature of our system makes that unlikely--generally in recent history such swings have only persisted for 2 year cycles, and then back to divided government and switching control. This has allowed a lot of bad tendencies of both parties to flourish.

I think true reform in a party is easier when you are completely getting destroyed in elections and then shut out of power for at least a decent stretch (6-8 years), and that just hasn't happened in America in a long time.

[Oexmelin]

At this point, I don't think we should expect senior Democrats resigning.

[garbon]

It says a lot about the Democratic party that between two bad parties, many of us only have the option of voting Republican this year because of the unacceptable things the Democrats have adopted.

No it really doesn't. Not as much as it says about your 'many of us'.

[crazy canuck]

At this point, I don't think we should expect senior Democrats resigning.

It's easy for them to follow Biden's lead and decide what's best for them rather than the party/country.  Not to mention holding on to office well past the point of diminished capacity has become the norm.

[Kleves]

Judge Aileen Cannon has dismissed the classified documents case against Donald Trump.

In a ruling Monday, Cannon said the appointment of special counsel Jack Smith violated the Constitution.

"Both the Appointments and Appropriations challenges as framed in the Motion raise the following threshold question: is there a statute in the United States Code that authorizes the appointment of Special Counsel Smith to conduct this prosecution? After careful study of this seminal issue, the answer is no," Cannon wrote in the ruling.
Cannon also wrote, "In the end, it seems the Executive's growing comfort in appointing 'regulatory' special counsels in the more recent era has followed an ad hoc pattern with little judicial scrutiny."

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-classified-documents-case-dismissed-07-15-24/index.html
Notably, the same challenge was rejected in Hunter Biden's case. It certainly feels like the system is failing.

[Tamas]

Nobody wants to be on the receiving end of the Trump mob.

You guys are like late stage Roman Republic.

[grumbler]

I'm wondering if the DOJ can re-file the case after an appeal and get a different judge.  Cannon would have to recuse herself, wouldn't she?

[Admiral Yi]

AOC is an idiot.  Believing that Biden will win will not make him win.  Only votes will make him win.  It sounds exactly like Christians talking about the power of prayer.