What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[OttoVonBismarck]

The POTUS cannot unilaterally withdraw from NATO.

[Legbiter]

Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio.

My impression is that he has to routinely pretend to be 2 standard deviations lower in IQ than he actually is, at least on social media. Repeats Kremlin talking points verbatim, down to voicing concern over confiscated Russian assets. 

[Barrister]

I don't think that the choice is between Biden and Harris?  I think Democrats should do whatever Republicans would've done if the dude with the rifle aimed a little to the right.

Well first of all - if Trump had been killed it would've been chaos for the GOP.  I mean the convention starts today.  That would have been absolute crazy town - also because there's no obvious successor to Trump (Pence being ruled out because you know why).,

Second - Biden resigning is not the same as if Biden was killed.  And Biden does have a really obvious successor - his currently sitting Vice President.  I understand there's also some legal technicalities in that Harris is the legal inheritor of any campaign funds.

I'm 100% not the head of the Kamala Harris fan club.  But she's basically the only possible successor to Biden at this point.  And I think she's probably more likely to beat Trump at this point as well.

[Barrister]

The POTUS cannot unilaterally withdraw from NATO.

OvB, my friend, you have no obligation to answer my argument of course.  You can ignore me completely.

But you also can't pretend you have in the slightest answered my post.

First of all, you're technically correct.  POTUS can not unilaterally withdraw from NATO.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/congress-trump-proofs-nato-1.7059768

(I picked a CBC article just to piss you off, plus there's no paywall)

But look at the news article - that change was only introduced last year - precisely because of fear of Trump.  In the prior 60+ years of NATO it was never thought to be needed.

Beyond that though - Trump as POTUS is the Commander in Chief.  If he decides he won't abide by Article V then NATO is dead, no matter what the legal structure is.  As a Canadian I know this - we might be legally obligated to spend 2% of GDP but that hasn't made it happen for decades.

Finally - I think you also think that withdrawing from NATO would be a really bad thing.  You also think that election denialism is a bad thing.  You support Israel - as I do.  But Biden has been mostly good on Israel, though definitely not perfect.  SO why throw everything else out the window just for a President that might be a little better on Israel?

(and even then given his ties to the Saudis, he doesn't seem likely to engage on a massively anti-Islamic foreign policy push either)

[Barrister]

So it really is Vance.

That's just such a fascinating pick.

So yes, he has a remarkable biography.  Growing up poor, joined the Marines, Yale law school, wrote a best-selling memoir turned into a (hit?) movie, elected to the senate.  I mean there was a time I really respected JD Vance.

Trump commented in the past that Pence looked like he was from "central casting" and I'm not sure that quite applies to Vance, but that's Trump's issue, not mine.

But on the other hand... Vance was a really, really vocal critic of Trump in 2016.  Like very publicly.  He's obviously turned 180 degrees since then, but those sound clips exist.

Interesting to see how it pans out.

[Sheilbh]

I think there's something to what people are pointing that that's maybe a bonus point for Trump. People who've bent the knee and been willing to humiliate themselves are better than fanatics.

Similar to so many never Trumpers - vocal when they thought Trump would lose. Supine after he won.

[Legbiter]

I think there's something to what people are pointing that that's maybe a bonus point for Trump. People who've bent the knee and been willing to humiliate themselves are better than fanatics.

Similar to so many never Trumpers - vocal when they thought Trump would lose. Supine after he won.

Paris is worth a Mass. Well done.

He's extremely high human capital, Yale educated, wife studied history at Cambridge, 3 young kids.

[Barrister]

I think there's something to what people are pointing that that's maybe a bonus point for Trump. People who've bent the knee and been willing to humiliate themselves are better than fanatics.

Similar to so many never Trumpers - vocal when they thought Trump would lose. Supine after he won.

I think it's clear it's a bonus to Trump himself.  It's a very "alpha male" show of power to have a former critic bend the knee.  Same thing applies to Lindsey Graham.

How it comes across to voters I'm not as sure.  Although I guess most evidence suggested a VP pick really changes very few votes - and probably even fewer votes in a race between two people who are so incredibly well known to voters.

[The Minsky Moment]

The POTUS cannot unilaterally withdraw from NATO.

Of course he can. It's been done many times before. For example, as part of the move to recognize the PRC, Carter unilaterally cancelled the US-Republic of China defense treaty.  He was sued by members of Congress disputing his authority and the Supreme Court ruled that the controversy was non-justiciable. As a result, the treaty became defunct.

Moreover, even if he didn't go so far as to abrogate the NATO treaty outright, he could render US adherence a dead letter by just refusing to cooperate anymore with any of the NATO structures, like France did under de Gaulle.

[The Minsky Moment]

I think Vance is very dangerous.  The best case scenario is that he is the most egregious opportunist who will do literally anything to get ahead and seek power.  The other possibility, which cannot be excluded, is that he is a genuine convert to Orbanist neo-fascism. Either way, he could be a very effective and powerful force for the 2025 Agenda, and the destruction of the merit-based civil service and its replacement by loyalist lapdogs.  The damage that Trump could do in 2020-24 was limited by his own indolence and ignorance and the fact that until the very end, most of his advisors believed in American democracy.  At the very end of that term, we got a hint of the insanity that could be unleashed when the grownups are replaced by the Kash Patels, Jeffrey Clarks, etc.  Vance could lend significant weight to that faction.

[Barrister]

https://nypost.com/2024/07/15/us-news/corey-comperatores-widow-reveals-his-final-words-before-he-was-killed-at-trump-rally/

So if you dig through this NYPost article...

Talks about the family of the fellow who was killed at the Trump assassination attempt.  I mean - he sounds like a very decent fellow.  I'm sorry for his family's loss.

Joe Biden called the family to express his sorrow.  The widow declined the call - saying her husband, a fervent Trump supporter, wouldn't have wanted her to.  To which - fair enough.

Widow does say she doesn't blame Biden in the least - that it was some 20 year old kid who killed her husband, not Joe Biden.

The kicker though:

She said the family has not heard from Trump — but is steadfast Biden isn't welcome.

And remember - this is the NY Post.

[Admiral Yi]

Does anyone know if this firefighter dude was killed by an assassin bullet or Secret Service bullet?

[Legbiter]

Finally - I think you also think that withdrawing from NATO would be a really bad thing.

The funny thing with the Russians hoping for a compliant Trump who'll just pull away from NATO/Ukraine, given his capricious nature is the following very likely (IMO) scenario:

Trump offers Putin a deal on Ukraine, the best deal, just amazing. Putin will dismiss it haughtily and mistake it for subservience like Russians are prone to do with every gesture that is not a hard kick to the face.

And then drone swarms in the 10,000s and hundreds of F-16's and Abrams tanks in the Zaporozhye plains summer 2026. 

As to Trump and Europe, eh, Charlie will invite him over to Buckie for a banquet and a diet coke. Throw in an honour guard and bands as well. It worked very well last time. The White House staff will make sure he's distracted with plenty of things to do and any intemperate social media messages or phone calls will get sandbagged and garbled as last time.

He just wants another ride on the roller coaster.

[grumbler]

AOC is an idiot.  Believing that Biden will win will not make him win.  Only votes will make him win.  It sounds exactly like Christians talking about the power of prayer.

Can you give me a link to an AOC statement that indicates that she thinks that believing that Biden will win will make him win?

You sound exactly like MAGATs lying about Democrats say.

[grumbler]

The funny thing with the Russians hoping for a compliant Trump who'll just pull away from NATO/Ukraine, given his capricious nature is the following very likely (IMO) scenario:

Trump offers Putin a deal on Ukraine, the best deal, just amazing. Putin will dismiss it haughtily and mistake it for subservience like Russians are prone to do with every gesture that is not a hard kick to the face.

And then drone swarms in the 10,000s and hundreds of F-16's and Abrams tanks in the Zaporozhye plains summer 2026. 

As to Trump and Europe, eh, Charlie will invite him over to Buckie for a banquet and a diet coke. Throw in an honour guard and bands as well. It worked very well last time. The White House staff will make sure he's distracted with plenty of things to do and any intemperate social media messages or phone calls will get sandbagged and garbled as last time.

He just wants another ride on the roller coaster.

Trump's (Project 2025) military posture is to basically withdraw from NATO except for the nuclear guarantee, so as to create such a strong defense of Taiwan that the PRC will abandon all hope of being able to invade.  I can't see the Trump Administration or Trump personally reversing course to suddenly support all those "lazy European countries that won't defend themselves."  Trump has said explicitly that he would welcome a Russian invasion of any NATO country that doesn't meet the agreed level of defense spending and that he would do nothing to stop it.